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Quote Originally Posted by eddothebook:
A parlay is an "accumulator". If you were to risk $100 on one game, won and risked the entire proceeds ($190.90) on the second game, on the second game you would win $173.54, for a total of $364.44, or a $264.64 profit (fair odds = 2.644x). A 5-team parlay at -110 each game would be [(((1/1.1)+1)^5) - 1] times your stake. If you bought a point in one of the games, your payout would be adjusted, say ((1/1.1)+1)*((1/1.1)+1)*((1/1.2)+1)*....(etc). Fair odds is simply odds you'd get as if you ran each game into the next all in. Pinnacle sports offers 5c lines but not on parlays. But if your games start at different times, you may take the -105 lines and go "all in" from one game to the next to have the same result as a normal parlay. If you feel like "hedging" your last leg, simply bet a little less than all in on the last game. That way you save juice and benefit from the reduced juice
I understand your concept of "fair odds", which is laying 110(-110) on a bet and parlaying it 5 times at the price of -110. Laying -110, or -120, or any amount for that matter is the juice, which pretains to something totally different than the thread I was commenting on. And that is just the odds of the outcome of a certain event based on the number of possible combinations for that event. EXAMPLE: Two baseball teams are playing each other. Now what are the odds of ANY of those teams winning AND the total of the game goes over(or you can use 'under' too)? Well, here's EVERY possible scenario of what could happen(provided that one team eventually wins and the total is not a push)...
#1) Team A wins, goes Over #2) Team A wins, goes Under #3) Team B win, goes Over #4) Team B wins, goes Under
With that said, there are four different possibilities, and only one winning pick. So you have 3 losers and 1 winner. So, your odds of picking the correct one is 1 IN 4, which equates to 3 TO 1. Those are the odds I was talking about, not in a betting standard, but just the odds of something happening, AND THEN apply it to betting strategies, especially when it comes to finding values in overlays and underlays.
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RantinRave | 173 |
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Quote Originally Posted by eddothebook:
^^^ Of course if a book pays out 20 to 1 on a 5 team parlay they will clean up. Most books nowadays pay fair odds, ie: for a 5-team parlay, it's 24.36 to 1. And with the bonus that some books offer, that reduces the effective juice to -104 per game! That's right. They're basically telling you "Bet on 5 games and the juice will be a 'wholesale' -104 instead of -110" ! Now if I'm a book and I got $1000 action on Team A and $1500 action on Team B. If Team A wins, I pay out $909.09 and collect $1500 = +$590.91 If Team B wins, I pay out $1363.64 and collec $1000 = -$363.64 Assuming both sides were -110 to begin with. I am effectively risking $363.64 to win $590.91, or getting +162 on Team A to win!!! The bigger the book edge, the smaller the stake amount, the smaller the book edge, the bigger the stake amount. For example, if I have $100 of action on Team A and $100000 action on Team B, I obv want team A to win because a lot is at stake, even though I am getting a little over +110. If the action is even, my edge is infinite simply because my risk is zero. A thousand dollars on both sides of the game guarantees me $91 or profit regardless of who wins.
What are the "fair odds" you talk about? And why is it 24.36 to 1 on a 5-team parlay? |
RantinRave | 173 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by lightsout2184]
completely wrong. "knew a guy who ran a book for 3 years" lol never wanted to just win 10 percent. The action is never even and thats a good thing. You will always come out ahead in the long run. Last couple weeks have been bad. A lot of public plays hitting like crazy. Vegas knows what they are doing just watch they will go on some bad runs.
No dude, you're completely wrong and Chadnailz6 is right. I know, I've been working in the gaming industry in Nevada for the last 26 years and counting. When the book puts out their lines, either money lines or point spread, they don't put up a number that they think the outcome will be,but they put up numbers that they think the public will bet both sides of, and then they make their money off of the vigorish on the losing bets. Casinos don't like to gamble. Las Vegas wasn't built by giving away money.
WHERE THE BOOKS MAKE THE REAL $$$
The book makes the majority of their income off of football parlay cards. On these bets, the book holds AT LEAST 37.5% advantage over the player, or more. And the reason being is because of the odds the card pays out.
EXAMPLE: Suppose you bet a 5-team parlay. The odds the book pays out on a 5-team parlay is 20 to 1. However, the odds of hitting a 5-team parlay is 32 to 1. The 32 to 1 is figured by adding up every possible betting combinations of the 5 teams, 32 different combinations. Now, as Chadnailz6 pointed out, since the book has so much action, every possible combination of that ticket will be played, and out of those 32 tickets, only 1 ticket will win. So the book returns the 1 unit bet to the winner, PLUS 20 additional units for winning. Now, out of the 32 tickets for that particular 5-team parlay, the book is down 21 units, 1 unit for the winning bet, and 20 units for the winning payoff. Now that leaves the book with 11 units left over. That's called PROFIT. In gaming, it doesn't matter how much money is spent, everything is calculated by the unit. Regardless if someone's betting $1 or $100,000, the book's PC (percentage) will always remain the same. So if the book holds at least 37.5% advantage over the bettor, that means for every hundred dollars the book takes in, they are GUARENTEED to make $37.50. The odds get worse for the bettor with more teams bet.
It's not a big industry secret or anything like that, it just comes down to simple odds. That's the truth. I know a lot of people won't believe me, but that's the way it is. And for those people who don't believe what I say, well, let's just say, Las Vegas loves you. |
RantinRave | 173 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by thewhitesmith] and what's to say every pick is 50/50?
if you're picking a -130 favorite every time your numbers go right out the window...
The 50/50 prop you're talking about is based on a STRAIGHT UP win/lose outcome. It's just an understanding of basic odds and probability. That's why I don't bet football parlay cards. On a 5 team parlay, the card pay out 20 to 1, when the true odds of hitting is actually 32 to 1. That means that the house has a 37.5% ADVANTAGE over the player. The football analogy was just an example of what the concept of "true odds" really are. There are so many different variables when picking a side, both positive and negative, that they'll virtually cancel each other out, so this is pretty much the standard way that the odds are figured out.
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ovrundr | 12 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by crushalot22]
What are the odds of 1 of 4 at 17 hitting 21 in a row? And the way I look at it, the leaders are starting now. 4 winners in a row is all that is needed to get that money. A streak of 4. What are the odds of 1 out of 4 hitting 4 in a row? The odds of hitting 4 in a row would be 16 to 1. The formulas for these are simple. For 4 in a row, it's 2 to the 4th power, or 2x2x2x2=16. 5 in a row would be 2 to the 5th power, and so on and so on. |
ovrundr | 12 |
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It's just basic mathematics. Simple.
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ovrundr | 12 |
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Odds of hitting... 25 Straight: 33,554,432 to 1 21 Straight: 2,097,152 to 1 17 Straight: 131,072 to 1 13 Straight: 8,192 to 1 9 Straight: 512 to 1 |
ovrundr | 12 |
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