misterstats

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misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
I hope you achieve your goal and be successful when you move to Vegas.  I'll be rooting for you.  For me, I still feel burnt out from FTP... and I'll never go back live again (unless it's a tourney).  It's too time consuming... and I feel like sports is more profitable and more enjoyable.  The bad beats/moose is more tolerable in sports.  However, the busters or donkey's in poker are much nicer.
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Memphis opens at 7.  Public is pounding LAC and the points at an alarming 60%.  The line is now 8... no wait, some books now have it at 8.5.  Pretty obvious where the sharp money is at.  This maybe one of those games where I put in the wager, not watch the game, and just look at the final score.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Yeah you're totally right man I agree. Not validating it for the B's. I wish they didn't even get to see it. Is guys like you I'm talking to. No validating it to you either, just trying to keep track myself. This is a learning process for me too and I'm trying to decide what to add and what to keep simple. 

I think the original rules work fine all by themselves but it obviously needed a little something after we no-played all those winners on the 8th, and I think the grading system is important. Getting there though. 

Money & Bankroll Management is a beast to perfect.  You're a poker player, you know the fundamentals.  Easy to understand and comprehend, but a bitch to apply.  When you're running good, it's easy to follow the rules, but once you start running bad... it's TILT and bad decisions that gets you.  That's why your rule of thumb, "Don't do anything stupid" is so important.

Honestly, I think 2nd half wagers are a gamble.  Eventually we are in the mercy of the books hands, and we have no edge.  Besides the 5 minutes of line movements at halftime, what information do we really have besides what we and the Busters observe on TV?  Unless there's a site that I'm not aware of... that provides information on what the "public" is betting at halftime, I think it's a tough bet.

Grading system is going to require a lot of work.  If you're good at poker bankroll management, you should be successful with this in the long run.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
System play was Philly +5.5 and Lakers Under.  I jumped on Lakers UNDER 196 when it was drastically going down, yet the public heavily favored the OVER.  

Czech, I love your system boss.  If I really like a side or total with my own analysis, your system re-confirms that it's a solid play.  It's a great tool to use.

Czech, I wouldn't worry too much about validating your system.  As long as you're constantly profiting from it, who cares what the Busters think.  Busters will always hate on the world and continue to lose.  Eventually when their bankroll depletes, they vanish anyways.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
The system works man.  It's pointless to exert effort into persuading stubborn and idiotic people like Dicklover and ASSmug.

Read the system, do your homework, apply the system, and attack.  

For those who have no clue what's going on, you're not trying hard enough.  It's not that hard to figure out what the system play is.  Most of the people probably haven't even read the system or even care to know how it works.  Just trying to copy the answers off the smart kid.

CZECH, the real people who care about your system already know how it works.  I would post the plays as soon as the game is off the board (Maybe at tipoff).

I'm off to dinner.  BOL to everyone.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
What's up Czech.  It was a premature wager, but I took Lakers Under at 196 (-115) earlier this morning.  I noticed the total was vastly moving down (opened at 198.5).  Interesting to see it at 194 now with the public still at a steady 60% on the over.

You guys can cap the Lakers game and play the sharp play.  As for me the sharp play is a NO PLAY considering the Lakers are my squad.  I can't go against Kobe in a Game 7 with a full Lakers squad (welcome back MWP).  I think the refs will favor the Lakers as David Stern is drooling over a Thunder/Laker series to draw ratings.  Personally I think Denver and the points would be a solid play if it's a system play.

Haven't had time to review the PHI/BOS game as the line came out pretty late in my book.  

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:


What a trash system. You havent even updated your stats the last pages... Maybe you should re-read your rule number 2...

Beat it Buster.  This is coming from a guy who tailed the Charlotte Bobcats throughout the whole season.  The Charlotte Bobcats!!! You kidding me?  

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
Great work guys.  See you guys tomorrow and let's do it again!


misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

I pushed and won also but wanted the posted line to hit also. Sigh. Memphis shoulda covered -2.5 also, and I don't mind posting a loss by 1/2 a point. 

Anyways I had $230 on Memphis -2 and $200 on the under 178.5.  I'll take that since I thought it was gonna go over.  

Dude that was with Randy Foye hitting that 3.  When they inbounded the ball to Conley I was shouting "Run Fool! Run!" LOL

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
Yeah I pushed and won.  Those who took Memphis -2.5 took too long to wager.  Still a good night.  


misterstats
NBA Betting > Kobe is the best player in the league! > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Asomugha:


Wrong. Everybody wants to be a ballhog idiot, so people like you will come and say "Ohh, he is so clutch, much better than LeBron because he can't do that" But you are wrong. LeBron makes the best decision for his TEAM not for himSELF because he is not a ballhog egoistisc idiot like Kobe is, he is a TEAM player and basketball is a TEAM sport.

Kobe?  He has an MVP and 5 Championship rings.  What's your point?  His FG% sucks but he'll win you more games than lose, nobody denies that.  

I watched on ESPN where King James just earned himself his 3 MVP award on an exclusive list.  Out of the 3 MVP award winners, he's the only one without the hardware.  As I said, dude is a freak of nature and the King of Stats.  This guy has all the skillset to win a championship.  All LeBron needs to do is a win a championship and hate towards him will seize.  Just win baby.


misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
Some books have the line at MEM -2.5 now.  Hopefully it's the sharps that causing the late line movement.

Enjoy the game guys.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
I use 2 sources to see where the public money is going.  Usually they're consistent with one another but this game's been a total nightmare.  Once place has Memphis at 53% and the other 59%.  Over at 67% and the other at 45%.  This info is totally out of wack.  I think it doesn't help that this is the only game tonight on a Friday night (where Busters in Vegas are dying for action).

Yeah, I can't see this game being a system play.  This is as 50/50 as you're gonna get.  People pounding LAC because both CP3 and Blake are playing in an elimination game at home and have no desire to go back to MEM.  People also pounding MEM because they know CP3 and Blake aren't 100% and they want to survive in this series and bring it back.  NBA totally siding with Memphis so they can have a game 7 for ratings.

It just doesn't make much sense to me that the road team is the favorite here unless Vegas knows something we don't.  As far as the total, I think I'm taking the under (always a solid play on a Friday night considering Busters love OVER action).  

For me it's going to be MEM and UNDER.  Definitely not based on the system considering this game should be a NO PLAY.

GL everyone and have a great weekend!

misterstats
NBA Betting > Lets discuss game 7 in LA - Saturday nite - Stern got his wish - Karl has figured out the blueprint > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mikado:


Sessions is a big upgrade at point over the aging Fish.  They need to do something about Blake, all hes good for is threes.  Probably one of the worst PG at defense in the league is Blake... I'd be calling him out more than sessions.  

LOL.  I think it was Shaq who said Blake plays matador defense.  The dude just runs away from his opponent on defense.  Haha.

misterstats
NBA Betting > Lakers focus too much on Defense > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lefty1981:
It will NEVER be Bynum's team! If problemchild Bynum ever becomes the no.1 option on the Lakers, they might as well just trade everyone off and rebuild in the lottery. I'm still holding out hope that we can flip him for Dwight this summer.

Never say Never.  When Kobe retires, it's going to be Bynum who's going to carry the Laker franchise.  If Bynum hasn't been traded by now, what makes you think Jim Buss is going to trade his pride and joy?  He'd trade the Kobe-ster before Bynum.  We all know D12 is waaaay better than Bynum... but unfortunately, it doesn't matter.  All that matters is what Jim Buss thinks.... Bynum isn't going anywhere.

misterstats
NBA Betting > tom thibodeau > View Post
He's a great coach.  Look how they performed against a playoff team without his two best players (Rose & Noah).  He got max value from his players this season (outside of Boozer who's completely dead weight).

misterstats
NBA Betting > Kobe is the best player in the league! > View Post
LeBron might be the world's greatest athlete and the best basketball player right now, but nobody can deny he's mentally weak.  Everybody in this world wants to be "THE MAN", but only a few have the skillset to achieve that.

Everyone who plays the game dreams about taking and making the game winning shot.  Hell, everybody in the world knows that Kevin Durant is better than Westbrook and it's KD that should take the winning shot.  But even Westbrook wants to be the man even though the whole world is against him.

Everyone dreams about making the game winning shot, but LeBron wants to make the game winning pass.  Sure Jordan once deferred the game winning shot to Steve Kerr... but he'll be forever remembered as the guy who took that shot against Craig Ehlo and Bryon Russell.  Nobody questions Jordan's manhood.

How the hell can you be considered the greatest ever when you're not even the main man on your own team? 

Like I said... win a championship and we'll squash our perception that he's a big box.  Until then, it's been 9 years, and we're still waiting LeBron.

misterstats
NBA Betting > Friday Lock > View Post
This guy cracks me up.  If you tail his picks, you lose.  If you fade his picks, you still lose.  Talk about head games.

misterstats
NBA Betting > What would LAKERS prepare to do in GAME7? > View Post
Win but not cover

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
In case you guys haven't played ESPN Streak for the Cash:

http://streak.espn.go.com/en/entry?date=20120511

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
Survivor is cool but have you tried ESPN's Streak for the Cash?  You get to pick however many games/props that are on their board and the best streak for the month wins 50k.  There's also a 50k rollover jackpot where if nobody hits 27 straight wins in a month.  If you hit 27 straight this month (unless someone has a better streak than 27), you get 250k.  Pretty nice amount for a free contest.

In Survivor you're only allowed 1 pick a day right?

misterstats
NBA Betting > Don't get fooled > View Post
Relax... Lakers were in no mood to make this a quick series.  Everyone and their grandmas know the Lakers have zero shot to beat OKC in a series without MWP.  MWP's suspension is now over and now my Lakers have a shot to win maybe 1 or 2 games against the Thunder... Even with this poor showing, I can't see Denver upsetting the Lakers on Saturday Night.  Anything is possible I suppose.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
The total on this LAL/DEN game could've qualified under the system.  The game opened at 199.5 and dropped all the way down to 196 by game time.  However the consensus was at 50/50.  The line should've remained at 199.5 because the money was split.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
With all the news behind Kobe's health, the line was fluctuating throughout the day.  I only liked Denver because the Lakers know they have no shot at beating OKC in the conference semi's without Metta... so if they lose this game, it's not the end of the world.  Game 7 should be a dandy.  I'm a Lakers fan and there's no way I'm capping that game.  I already know BUSTERS will be all over the Lakers Game 7 at Staples laying whatever number given on Saturday Night (possibly the highest number we've seen in the series).  

Only one game tomorrow on a Friday Night.  Should be fun!

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
I mean ALSO, it's been a good day fading the public.

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
System checked out for the total in the Boston/Atlanta game.  Total opened up at 175 and by game time it was at 173.  Over 59% - Under 41%.  Besides that, it's been a good day fading the public.

misterstats
NBA Betting > BULLSHIT > View Post
I wish I had Carlos Boozer's publicist and agent.  Dude has the talent skills of Drew Gooden but gets paid a bazillion times more.

misterstats
NBA Betting > Players that are a cancer > View Post
Carlos Boozer, Monta Ellis, Hanley Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Barry Zito, Tony Romo, and Mark Sanchez.

misterstats
NBA Betting > Kobe is the best player in the league! > View Post
I'm biased.  

I love the Lakers, so of course naturally I'd side with Kobe.  Until LeBron gets his ring, he'll forever be in the shadows of the Greats.  All LeBron has to do is win one and he'll solidify his legacy as being the most talented, gifted, freak of a beast to play the game.  

All his haters will have to bite their tongue... just look at Alex Rodriguez... I never thought the day would come where his harshest critics would ever shut up.

Till that ring happens for LeBron, I'll gladly take an aging, over-rated, jump-shot missing Kobe to jack clutch shots to win ballgames for me.

When it comes down to it, it's all about winning right?

misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
Sample size lookin' good sir!  


misterstats
Website Promotions > Czech's Bringing Down The Books 101 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by CZECH_RAZOR:

Guys I'm not gonna speak to your stats here, but let's pretend 67% really are on the Clips.

Let's imagine I sell hamburgers for $1 a piece, and I have a line out the door from people wanting to buy my hamburgers.  Am I going to decide to put them on sale for .90 a piece? Of course not.  I already have the business.

So if Vegas has 67% of money pouring in on the Clips +6, why would they decide to offer a better price of 6.5, making it easier for them to hit? 

Unless you know that the beef that you're selling will go bad tonight.  There's reverse line movement going on in that game.  This doesn't happen a lot, but it happens.  The only explanation I can think of is, they're suckering people into taking LAC.
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