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Oklahoma State to win Big 12 Conference +1400
Connecticut to win Big East Conference +2200 Georgia Tech to win ACC Conference +1200 Missouri to win SEC East Division +1200 Alabama to win SEC West Division +160 Utah to win PAC South Division +1200 Stanford to win PAC North Division +900 Iowa to win Big 10 Legends Division +1100 Boston College to win ACC Atlantic Division +2500 Win Totals Texas A&M Under 7 wins -115
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marko123 | 1 |
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meatspin.com
4chan.org
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marko123 | 3 |
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https://www.thepredictiontracker.com
https://www.teamrankings.com https://www.nasa.gov |
marko123 | 3 |
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marko123 | 3 |
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I feel more confident in my plays when I write them up and reason through why I'm playing them. Feel free to cut up any reasoning, picks and give your own opinion. Here's my first writeup for week 1, if people respond back and give their opinions, I'll post the rest by the end of tomorrow.
Toledo at Arizona The line opened at Arizona -4.5 but it dropped to -10 over a couple of weeks. My predicted lines are Arizona -2.15 and Arizona -2. I use a variety of different power rankings and indexes to create an average line. As you can see Arizona is overvalued by 8 points. This is my main reason for picking this game. A low profile game with a weak line in my opinion. As far as home field advantage is concerned, Arizona doesn't really have a noticable one. I have it at around 4 points which is the average HFA for most teams. This number is already incorporated into the predicted line but if I see a large HFA such as 8 or 10, I like to look into it, instead of getting a line from it. Calculating the implied and fair win probabilites, I see over a 2% overvalue of Arizona which is already seen in the predicted line but I like to confirmation. Time for stats. Last season, Toledo had a point differential of 11.3 while Arizona had -4.7. Toledo has 2 great QB's, Dantin and Owens who each have different styles, Dantin is a pocket passer and Owens sets up running plays. This is the reason why the point diff. was a solid positive number. Arizona suffered with a poor defense. Toledo had a total scoring rank of 8 vs Arizona's 109 overall defense rank. Toledo is generally better on the road offense wise compared to Arizona's home defense. Arizona's offense vs. Toledo's defense shows some interesting numbers. Arizona is ranked 5th in home passing vs but ranked 105th in home rushing compared to Toledo's 20th rank in away rushing defense. So, Arizona is basically stuck passing unless they can improve their running game. The problem with that is the fact that Toledo is 52.9 yards better at passing defense compared to the league. However, Toledo is 37.8 yards WORSE at rushing defense than the league. But unless Arizona can improve their running game, this is an unused weak spot. One of the reasons why I think the line is what is favouring Arizona by 10 is because of their 2 past games in 2008 and 2010. Arizona won both. 41-2 in 2008 and 41-16 in 2010. This is a long time ago and if Vegas is using this information, they are expecting bettors to use misleading information. As far as situationals go, Toledo has 2 great QB's as mentioned earlier and Fluellen takes good care of the RB role. Their only weak spot is the D line but they have a transfer coming in, Emilien LB, and Molls, who was out for the second half of 2011. They are both good players so they should have a positive improvement on the defensive side. Arizona's QB, Scott is a good, balanced player who should have no problem leading the team. They do lack a good RB but Carey, 425 rush yds, 6 TD as a freshman will try and fill the spot. Lastly, Arizona needs better defense, I do not know of any new players or improvements happening as of yet so I am not expecting a surprise. As far as tough schedules go, Arizona has the 3rd toughest schedule and Toledo is ranked at 112th. So I don't see Arizona going 110% on their first game against Toledo. Toledo +10 |
marko123 | 1 |
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I'll be using this thread to track Degen's new system which uses Base Runs, the sabermetric run estimator, in conjunction with a few other stats to predict winners.
Today's Plays: Cardinals (Late with this play) Athletics Yankees Tigers Padres Phillies This is still new so there will be added filters and adjustments being made. A bad day isn't the end of the world.
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marko123 | 2 |
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Today's Plays:
Cardinals ( I forgot it was a day game, so I'm posting it late) Yankees Marlins Phillies More coming up.
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marko123 | 66 |
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Yesterday's Results:
Rays -113 Cards +100 Tigers -170 Brewers -155 1-3 -3.38
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
Brewers
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
Tigers
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
Cardinals.
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marko123 | 66 |
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Today's Plays:
Rays More coming up.
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marko123 | 66 |
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Yesterday's Results:
Nationals +100 Phillies +100 Pirates +100 White Sox +100 Yankees +100 Giants -172 Tigers +100 Cards +100 D'Backs -198 7-2 +3.30u 58-33 63.73% +18.58u
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marko123 | 66 |
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I don't think you can divide by 9. The wiki page talked about manipulating BR for an individual batter. It said to use the batter you are interested in and 8 other average players.
What I would do is I would find the league average for every single stat above. I would use those numbers for 8 players and use the batter's stats for the batter you're interested in. I would add the numbers up for the 9 players for each stat and use that in the calculation. Then I would create a sort of base figure. I would take the league average and apply it to 9 players. That would be an average team. You would take the BR with your batter and subtract the league avg BR which should give you the runs your batter created. |
jaybosstein | 7 |
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Adding:
Cards D'Backs No more plays for tonight. Picks are posted on twitter as well ----> @MarkoV12345 4-1 so far, Yankees looking good in top of 8th. GL
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
Tigers
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
Giants
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
Yankees
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marko123 | 66 |
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Adding:
White Sox
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marko123 | 66 |
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Today's early game plays:
Nationals Phillies Pirates
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marko123 | 66 |
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