joshk

Member Since:March 2012
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joshk
College Football > A little perspective on the initial rankings...... > View Post
You have Wisconsin at 8 and then later say no way is Nebraska a top-10 team. Did you watch that game? Should have been a husker win. 

joshk
College Football > Week 2 Money > View Post
I like your lean on Wyoming with that decent sized number. Huskers have Oregon  coming to town next week, lot of hype in Lincoln for that game. Can see them doing enough to get a semi-comfortable win this week in preparation for the ducks. 

joshk
Soccer > TUESDAY 09/30/14 > View Post
Thanks jimc

joshk
Soccer > TUESDAY 09/30/14 > View Post
Forgive my ignorance, but what does NTL mean?  Know very little of soccer and just trying to gain some insight. Thanks in advance.

joshk
MLB Betting > Angels vs A's > View Post
Doesn't really make sense right? Makes u wonder.....

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
Sooo.....

joshk
College Football > S Alabama v Kent St > View Post
There, now hold on!

joshk
College Football > S Alabama v Kent St > View Post
What happened?

joshk
College Football > S Alabama v Kent St > View Post
Ahh Nevermind. 

joshk
College Football > S Alabama v Kent St > View Post
Streaming it?

joshk
MLB Betting > SF/ STL no score 1st > View Post
Almost every side of a run in the first inning is plus money. Just keep betting those if it's purely as simple as you say. 

joshk
MLB Betting > SF/ STL no score 1st > View Post
Hitting same for twins Yankees later today. 

joshk
MLB Betting > SF/ STL no score 1st > View Post
No runs in the first was a cash cow last season in the playoffs. 

joshk
General Discussion > DirectTV Renewal > View Post
If you find a way to swing that, be sure to share.  Doubtful, but good luck.  Same boat as you, love direct tv, but man it gets spendy.

joshk
NFL Betting > Just dumped a load > View Post
I read that as he likes them to win the North, not the conference.  Again, not a huge accomplishment.  I like the angle of Detroit being a potential factor in the division.

joshk
NFL Betting > Just dumped a load > View Post
IMO healthy QB or not, winning the NFC north isn't much of a measuring stick for how that team will do through the playoffs. Pretty weak group of teams. 

joshk
NFL Betting > Just dumped a load > View Post
Did they make any upgrades to offensive line?  Honest question, too lazy right now to look. Rodgers got planted a lot last season seemed like. 

joshk
NFL Betting > Just dumped a load > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by jimmybeam:

But, what if the playoffs have to go through "The Frozen Tundra"? San Fran? Seattle? Naw'Leans?
No way, no how......

The tundra was pretty frozen in these last playoffs.........SF won.

joshk
NFL Betting > season win totals 2014 > View Post
Spoon goes down for ATL.....

joshk
NFL Betting > Colin Kaepernick signs 6 year 110 million dollar deal with the 49ers. > View Post
I was in agreement with you hawk, just to be clear. 


joshk
NFL Betting > Colin Kaepernick signs 6 year 110 million dollar deal with the 49ers. > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by The Hawk:

From MMQB-always a good read:

1) I think that the reports of $110 million or $126 million are just meaningless numbers. As readers of this space know, NFL contracts are not like NBA and MLB contracts, where reported values are real. Even the guarantee is, well, not really all guaranteed. My sense is the reported $61 million guarantee—vaulting Kaepernick to the top of the list in NFL guaranteed money—will be “stair-stepped,” with annual triggers activating different amounts of guaranteed money at different stages of the contract (thus not a “true” guarantee). As reported by Pro Football Talk, the $110 million contract is, in actuality, a $13 million contract and then “we’ll see.”  Certainly, the expectation is that Kaepernick will earn tens of millions of dollars in future guarantees that activate April 1 in each of the next four years, but as of now those guarantees are for injury only (should he be unable to play the following season due to serious injury), a guarantee of relative little value.

2) I think the length of Kaepernick’s rookie contract was a key factor. While the NFL took a sledgehammer to the previous rookie compensation system in the new collective bargaining agreement, Kaepernick was one of the few golden ticket winners. Although the second-round earnings on his rookie deal ($5.1 million over four years) paled in comparison to first-round riches, he was not saddled with a team option for a fifth year like first-rounders are—for example, the Panthers’ Cam Newton. That would have given the Niners two more years of contract control, and the lack of such leverage worked to Kaepernick’s benefit.

Kaepernick and Harbaugh have reached two straight NFC title games together, and the 49ers are banking on more. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

3) I think the 49ers may have played a heavy hand due to Kaepernick’s highly undervalued existing contract. While all the comparable quarterbacks who received extensions over the past year—Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan and Jay Cutler—would have earned double-digit millions the next year absent an extension, Kaepernick would have made approximately $1 million in 2014. With an always-present injury risk, the team used his undersized 2014 salary as a hammer here.

4) I think Kaepernick showed some admirable loyalty to his agent. It was no secret around the NFL that many of the most powerful agents were circling, anxious to corral one of the top players in the game. With the barbarians at the gate, Kaepernick remained loyal to the agent who helped get him to where he is, Scott Smith of XAM Sports. Too many players leave agents for bigger agents or agencies when their careers advance to another level. Those agents who had been targeting Kaepernick will now pounce on the lack of guarantees in the contract, with the implication that they could have negotiated a much more favorable deal had he switched to them.

5) I think that, based on their structuring of other veteran contracts, the 49ers are tying significant earnings in the contract to per-game roster bonuses. This feature, which I used in Green Bay and is used by several clubs, allows the player to collect money every week as long as he suits up, while protecting the team if he does not. Using these clauses with Kaepernick, their most important player, would pave the way for their use in upcoming extension talks for players such as Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati and Aldon Smith.

In sum, the 49ers traded striking announced numbers in exchange for the structure that they wanted: a pay-as-you-go, year-to-year contract with protections for injury and downturn in performance. Kaepernick will play for $13 million in 2014 instead of $1 million; that we know. Beyond that, time will tell.

In conclusion, Calm The F Down, People! Move along, nothing to see here.............sky is not, I repeat, NOT falling. Couldn't see it anyway, what with all the fog in SF


Cue packers1992 to point out that nfl contracts are written on toilet paper. That is the point we were making with our article posts, trying to settle everyone down. No need for the light bulb. 

joshk
NFL Betting > Colin Kaepernick signs 6 year 110 million dollar deal with the 49ers. > View Post
So why is everyone up in arms then?

joshk
NFL Betting > Colin Kaepernick signs 6 year 110 million dollar deal with the 49ers. > View Post
Good read on how the contract really works:

http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/pft-kaepernicks-mega-deal-actually-has-little-risk-49ers?p=ya5nbcs&ocid=yahoo

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
Hadn't even looked at total yet.  Interesting.

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
Up to 4 now....

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
Thanks all for the input.  I still feel okay with the current -3.5.....would only guess it will be higher once the season hits, but who knows.

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
Because......why not?

This is just fun for me. Can't see this line getting below 3, barring injuries/suspensions. If I feel differently in 4 months, can always just get some back on the other side. 

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
We will see. 

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
I would guess so as well.  MIght hit it fairly large now.  Always a wild card this far out not knowing if anyone will run into any major injuries, but that is a big part of why we do what we do. 

joshk
NFL Betting > SF -3.5 Week 1. > View Post
Niners are favored 3.5 at Dallas week one.  What am I missing?  Granted, SF will be missing a couple pieces on D with Bowman and likely Aldon Smith out, but I feel like they answered a lot of needs with the draft.  Those might not yet be very noticeable week one though.  

I just don't see how the 49ers don't cover that number easy.

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