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Excited to use this system again this year....waiting for the sample size of pitcher stats to grow so that we can see the sagarin ratings...
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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up six units overall this month is you played it blindly though (May)
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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now its 42 and 48, up 0.7 units, after CIN and CHC winning as dog picks this afternoon, fyi
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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40 W and 48 L, (41.7%) -1.5 units, average game line +119, break even point at that game line is 45.61% since April 18th Thats all qualified games as they were offered at 9am EST daily. But like I've been saying, you dont always play this blindly, you use the picks to narrow the field with the best available games, so I havent played all 88 games picked and am up 6 units ytd |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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Yes i am aware and i certainly wasnt trying to take credit. But like you said, its been around a while and yet people still dont know about it. I figured that increased awareness of this system would be valuable to the community here at covers.com. I was just trying to make it top of mind for everyone. I obviously didnt invent it by any means. But I loved the idea and tracked it last year and only then did i send it out to the public in this forum, as to not look foolish. It seemed like dead information and it shouldnt be. Have a good weekend fellas. No mayweather -900 unless you rich boy. |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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those seem to be the correct plays for today guys. Toronto sounds good. Im gonna read up a little more. Want to see which underdog pitcher is the best of this bunch mainly
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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sorry double post. i was thinking. id be surprised if one of us couldnt put together a nice streak in the covers contest survivor thing and get paid for it. with a system like this i think someone can and will if we all try. i know i will be (shooting for the 100k) bol |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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true dat my friend. takin the good with the bad. but as long as we bet dogs we keep a value edge overall. thanks for following everyone. i remember how excited i was to learn about this when i did last year becuase its so intuitive and logical that it gives us an edge. thanks for noticing when we have a good day. i dont mean to ignore the bad days but usually i can spot them coming and only play a game or two and thusly mitigate my loses. good from nyc. best day of sports ever saturday..... kentucky derby. mayweather cotto fight. nba and nhl playoffs. ufc. nascar and of course mlb. play smart and drink for free this weekend. whoop whoop |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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true dat my friend. takin the good with the bad. but as long as we bet dogs we keep a value edge overall. thanks for following everyone. i remember how excited i was to learn about this when i did last year becuase its so intuitive and logical that it gives us an edge. thanks for noticing when we have a good day. i dont mean to ignore the bad days but usually i can spot them coming and only play a game or two and thusly mitigate my loses. good from nyc. best day of sports ever saturday..... kentucky derby. mayweather cotto fight. nba and nhl playoffs. ufc. nascar and of course mlb. play smart and drink for free this weekend. whoop whoop |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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Yeah, i took both PHI and CHC, though i was taking both, but got screwed on another walk off. This happened to me twice last night with both COLvsLAD with Giambi (wtf) and Desmond in the NATS/ARI game. Im having poor luck but these things happen when its all away dogs all the time (as it seems to be)---still, gotta keep persueing value, still having an excellent season, inside and outside the system Not too keen on the rest of the system plays tonight -- KC, CLE and WAS --- any thoughts fellas? |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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Those are the games I came up with for today. Well done fellas. Def tenative a few of these. Yankees bats are cold and putting phelps out there on the road, swisher still out, nunez will play, gardener might be back for the weekend, arod and cano arent producing RBIs. Duffy and Phelps have limited innings, maybe some scoring today actually after getting beat down by the O's. Not sure about Masterson vs Danks, but the juice on the over is too high for me to take really. Liked cleveland last night but not so much tonight Dewiler is ranked much higher than Kennedy but Kennedy is good and Detwiler is in the lower innings n-ERA ranking area. Not ready to pull the trigger on that home dog just yet. We have a few teams here that won last night and Im not sure that they are quality clubs that string together wins easily so im reading more about them. ie CHC, CLE,KC (Again, not playing the system blindly) Locked in PHI with Blanton vs ATL and Delgado, think philly has the advantage here, the line is dropping too, might not be a dog soon. I think covers could be the last stage of the SYSTEM analysis, its days like today that we need to collaborate and use our collective knowledge and resources to fine tune the picks, even if it yields one good valued-in POD, thats fine with me. What are my brothers thinking? BTW - that Sarah Phillips who used to have a column on here just got fired from ESPN for a twitter scam, she is hot and 22, how does she write for ESPN already, Imma find her and marry her. Crafty wench |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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what do EU odds look like, similar to baseball here? Baseball I get odds like 5.00 = +100, -5.50 = -110, -6.00 =-120 etc |
SirRagnar | 17 |
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Oh and the cubs fit the system last night, but they were postponed
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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Im pretty sure Zimmerman was in Sagarin's top 20 NL, thats why i ruled out the Dbacks as a system play last night. Naturally I bet them anyway, because I think the dbacks as a dog any night has good value, they have a good staff and a good lineup. At least until they cool down. |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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Yes, i sometimes but not always look at Sagarins ratings for the underdog pitcher, if i find i know little about him otherwise, but its not part of the system, but i dont see how it could hurt at all. I dont want to start posting the system plays on here because it sounds like some of you are trying to use the system, and in some cases coming up with different games than me. For reasons such as Im on the east coast, i get different numbers at different times of the day, i use a local book maker with web hosting, etc. Anyway, yesterday these games fit my card (I do my analysis every weekday morning at (9:30am EST for consistency), obviously lines change, but regardless you want to be betting dogs no matter what, when they move off a dog to -110 or worse, they come off the card, if they move to a dog, then thats up to you because you prally wouldnt be able to see that they were a fav or even earlier in the day. I recommend that you do your capping at the same time every day regardless. Yesterday system pointed me to: MIN (+140) @ LAA -- Loss -1 unit LAD (+100) @ COL -- WIN -- +1 unit TEX @ TOR (+130) -- WIN -- +1.3 units
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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hes up 21 units, wise post
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pucku27 | 17 |
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lakersfan, like i said, im not here to post plays and be tailed and then blamed or exhaulted for the results. That is one aspect of covers.com that i cant stand. The system is simple to figure out and obviously the lines change throughout the day, so some plays come off the card if you dont get them at certain lines and will also vary by which books you play with. I have a local book maker with web hosting so often my lines are different than yours. The key is to use the system to narrow down the card for the day and then use your discretion to pick the best remaining plays. Yes the system has done poorly the last few days, but i told you the weekend is often rough, and if we had a little sense we would have eliminated many of the losing plays and thereby mitigating our loses to a manageable scope where the system will rebound |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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thaks for posting the plays again. i didnt realize the system was down again sunday. i got a late start capping so i didnt break down the card with the system since like 7 games had started. i did go 3-0 on the mets. sf and tb under the card today looks rough. as most of the system plays have road dogs facing one of the ALs monster clubs that have been battling each but now get to start sweeping these lower tier teams (ostensibly). im going to back off on those. i dont like those pitching match ups either. so im thinking ill only play the dodgers (great spot against nicasio). a little something on the cubs against one of phili`s filler starters and id like to play the mets but i always seem to be on the wrong side of ra dickey games. so ill tack on a high confidence play on the cubs over 7.5 bol |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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good luck today fellas, getting a late start on capping today, anyone figure out the card for today yet.
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joeyd88 | 106 |
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thanks for being positive, and i would have encouraged anyone else to at least look at it for 1wk, the beauty is that we are now 2-2 at 500% and we are up money. thats my biggest thing, yes dogs are longer odds because they are less likely to win, but baseball is different, the pirates will lose 90 games this year, yes, but because of that they have value moving forward, the perceptions of the public allow us to always have a good line on the pitts bucs, if the bucs are going to win 10 games below 500 (70, not unreasonable) and get almost every game road or home as a dog (from +100 to +200), we have to recognize that that has value in the long run, favs are killers, as in the nfl, mlb has a whole profession of sabremetrics that is distinctive, it tells us more than anything and more than in any other sport, that the dogs have value. The main point is that... people can prally pick better this system if you know u can account for literally anything, and much more than in other sports, but the consisency is there in this, it cant not be, playing dogs are the rate they win and the value you get (like 10% under 500 and getting an average of +122 yields of positive ROI% and gross), There is no substitute at this time for someone who knows how to determine value in the huge amount of unders that should be played. Pitchers own this league, my best bet every year is the under in the allstar game, those staffs are so much better than any grouping of batters that only gets to face one pitcher once, actuoally unders in every major championship ever played recently, i tend to think the best competitive matches must be conservative. Ill post the system tomorrow, and ill play it with mild discretion almost blindly ( we almost always have schedule the top side of the rotation during the weekend, so regardless if the system losing today, we still saw great value in the lines we took, make no mistake we are taking a chance of losing all games every night if basball plays out the way it obviously should, but it never does, i think we are valued in thorough, if you are skeptical (like i was when i learned about) track it for a year like i did, and see if its worth your time. My results were so convincing i couldnt wait to play it this year. We're gonna be find, like CanEHdian Cappy wrote we got unlucky with MIA score in the last three frames, and LAA sneaking in, we have every reason to be positive and look forward, another fun night in NYC, We have to admit that having discretion and baseball knowledge goes some of the way, ( remember bet the best ones that the system yields, i think we lost all other games which i chose to eliminate although they were system plays). I play all my games in the morning, based on morning lines (EST) and dont bother to look how they change throughout the day, the system somewhat relies on this, so i set my phone (BET Bud app) and its done before nooon, i get to feel confident in this system without regarding too much risk. I know its not that fun that way, but it is fun to win. Like they say in Half Baked at the very end ........ya know. ( Hopefully not how the end of "Two for the Money" went |
joeyd88 | 106 |
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