Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
I agree with the pick, but I'm not seeing where the "money train" idea comes from. They're 2-2 ATS this year, and didn't even come close against bottom feeder Idaho...
|
Covers | 16 |
|
|
Anyone else worried about A&M being a little road-weary?
|
Covers | 51 |
|
|
On one hand, Nebraska is better at home, and should be able to win this one. Also, Penn State has played only two good teams in conference play (Northwestern and Ohio State) and both were at home... On the other hand, Penn State has played very well lately, and I don't like the line at all.
Tough call for me, but I like Penn State as a dog at a TD or better. I would like it better teased with something else. |
Covers | 19 |
|
|
Good points on both sides. Homer alert here, but I like the Huskers in this one. Some reasons:
1) The Husker D is improving, and excels against pro-style offenses. 2) Michigan State can't put more than 2 TD's on the board offensively. 3) Nebraska can't put less than 2 TD's on the board offensively. 4) Nebraska will expect the run, and force the Spartans to pass to win. 5) Michigan State can't pass very well. 6) Nebraska is #8 in the nation in pass defense. (surprising enough) 7) Nebraska turns the ball over alot, but the Spartans don't recover alot of those (more surprising). And they can't capitalize on the ones they do get. 8) Homefield advantage part 1: Michigan State is 0-2 in conference play at home this year, 2-3 overall. 9) Homefield advantage part 2: Dantonio is begging for fans to show up, tickets are selling cheap, and Nebraska travels better than any team in the nation. Northwestern had to go to a silent count at home because 50% of the fans were wearing red and being loud. It will look close for most of the game, but I like Nebraska in this one 23-17. Feel free to bash the homer now, but keep in mind that aside from the prediction, everything I threw out there was statistical fact. |
Covers | 22 |
|
|
I've been pretty lukewarm with the picks this year, so I'd take anything I say with a grain of salt. I'm not betting this one. Hard to get a read on how this will go.
Michigan has played 2 good teams all year (maybe 3 if you count Purdue, who has a knack for finding a way to lose). They've played 3 good defenses (including the top 2 in the country) and looked horrible. I don't count Michigan State as a good team, because they don't have anything that resembles an offense. Lucky for Michigan, Nebraska doesn't have a good defense, although they looked good against Northwestern. If not for multiple special teams problems, that's more of a blowout by the Huskers. Michigan could score 17 points, or they could score 50. Nebraska will probably put up around 28 against the best defense they've seen yet, but if they play with few mistakes (which is rare this season), they could still put just under 40 on the scoreboard. Honest question, how good is Michigan's D? The best offense they played was Alabama, who hung 41 on them. Next is Air Force, who scored 25. Those were the first 2 games of the season, so they may have gotten better. The only good defensive performance I see after that against a good offensive team is against Purdue. The rest of the teams they played are in the bottom half of NCAA in scoring offense. Nebraska has a "flukey" defense and a very good offense. Only thing keeping them from being a 1 loss team is mistakes. And you don't know where they're going to come from. Fumbles? Muffed punts? Entire team falling apart? But you know it's going to happen. If I were betting, I'd take the better defense coupled with the bad turnover margin for the opposing team. That points to a Michigan win and cover. |
Covers | 9 |
|
|
How Nebraska is favored here is a head scratcher. The only thing certain is we score over 30 points. We can turn the ball over 4 times and still score 30+. Every time we turn the ball over, it's statistically worth 4 points to the opposition on average. Nebraska's D is terrible on the road, terrible against spread offenses and mobile QB's. Cain Kolter may be focused in on, but Venric Mark still has a big day.
Nebraska could win, Northwestern could win, just depends on which Husker team shows up and how many turnovers we give up. If we do well in both departments, the Huskers will score... alot. (Keep in mind, Nebraska's offense has only scored 2ppg less than West Virginia on the season) If not, it will be because of turnovers and bad defense, and Northwestern will score plenty. Too unpredictable. Take the cats and the points if you want to gamble. I like the over. Huskers 35 Northwestern 38 Over 61.5 |
Covers | 21 |
|
|
The key to beating WVU is stopping 3 or more of their drives. K-State can leave their punter at home. Both teams have an offense, only one team has a defense. I'll take that team all day long.
K-State +2.5 |
Covers | 35 |
|
|
To me this looks like a heartbreaker (for me) with a lot of scoring. On one hand the Buckeye defense won't match up well vs. the Husker O, especially on the perimeter. On the other, Miller will break a few big runs, but his ability to extend plays will give him open receivers that normally wouldn't be there.
I think karma comes back to haunt Nebraska and we make enough mental errors for OSU to win and cover. OSU 35, NU 30 I won't bet this one, but I like the over better than the spread. |
Covers | 25 |
|
|
Here's a stat that has nothing to do with betting this game, but I thought was interesting:
This is the 3rd time in the last 4 seasons that ND has jumped at least 15 spots in the AP over the offseason. The last 2 times this happened, they went from top-25 to off the map in '08-09 and '10. This year, they made that 15+ spot jump again... But Michigan State's D looks like the best D in the nation outside the SEC, and I mean "looks like" from watching them play, not on paper. On paper, through 2 games their defense hasn't allowed an offensive touchdown yet. I'll trust my eyes in this game and go with the Spartans -5.5. |
Covers | 24 |
|
|
Ark St. +24.5 and over 67. Huskers win this game with some big offensive numbers, but this Husker D looks alarmingly bad going against another potent offense. I don't doubt the Red Wolves can stay within the spread in what should be a track meet.
|
Covers | 12 |
|
|
Guess I don't get the "one dimensional" argument. 354 yds passing and 278 yds rushing doesn't sound one dimensional to me. Neither does 44% passing attempts to 56% rushing. Keep in mind it was closer to 50/50 until the Huskers decided to put in backups and run out the clock. Are people suggesting that Nebraska is too pass happy based on one game? Has Nebraska not been one of college football's most run-strong teams in the game for the last 50 years? No Burkhead, fine. Abdullah and Heard can easily carry the load. The offensive line is solid. 2nd best receiving core in the B1G. No offensive penalties and 10 different receivers with a catch last week. Depth everywhere. Forget passing mechanics, Martinez' decision making/receiver checkdown has improved big time.
What strikes me is that the defense looks a lot like last year. This is a problem. I see both sides scoring here. The O/U looks too correct to go that route. As a homer, I'd take NU. As a bettor, I'll pass on this game and find something a little more sure. |
Covers | 29 |
|
|
From ESPN's preview of this game: " Nebraska certainly didn't sign up for a cupcake
opener, as the Huskers must face a team that won 12 games and blew out
Houston in the C-USA championship game last season. But this is probably
a good time to get the Golden Eagles. Johnson, the former South
Carolina defensive coordinator, takes over as head coach after Larry
Fedora took the North Carolina job. The team also must replace
quarterback Austin Davis -- who threw for nearly 3,500 yards and 30
touchdowns last season -- its leading rusher, top two receivers and five
of its top eight tacklers from '11. Southern Miss finished 14th in the
FBS in scoring last year at nearly 37 points per game but likely will
struggle to match that production without Davis and Fedora."
Only 10 returning starters and most of their playmakers on offense and defense gone. New coach, and an away game for Southern Miss. Huskers should roll here. But I'm still a bit skittish, since I'm not sure what NU is capable of this season. Most of the Husker team returns, with notable absences of Levonte David and Alfonso Dennard. But there are always defensive standouts to bridge the gap. I remember screaming for them to bench Larry Asante his sophmore and junior seasons, before he became a shutdown corner his senior year. And Prince Amukamara was an afterthought then. After Prince had a standout season and went pro, it was Dennard. It will be someone else this year. We are pretty deep in the secondary. The offense is stacked, and a lot hinges on whether Taylor Martinez has improved in the passing game, since he put in a large amount of work in the offseason with the same QB trainer that helped Cam Newton (not to compare the two QB's). In non-con play last year, Nebraska outscored opponents 171-88, an average of over 20ppg. I don't expect that to change, especially with every player on the roster fully healthy, although a few linemen missed spring training with injuries. I'll take the Huskers at -17.5, but I wouldn't go higher than -19. |
Covers | 15 |
|
|
I'm a homer so I will be dismissed as such. Whatever.
I hear the lion's share of the argument is that the Huskers can't match up to South Carolina's D. Nebraska has faced 4 of the top-10 scoring defenses in the country this year and beat 2 of them (the Gamecocks are 12th). So I don't see a big eye-opener there. Both teams are similar with a few signature wins, and a few bad losses. Both teams are offensively good running the ball and bad passing. So I see the argument that South Carolina's D is the difference in this game. I just don't think they are as good as their record indicates. South Carolina has played only 4 teams with winning records this year. 3 of them (Georgia, Arkansas, and Clemson) are good teams with 9+ wins. The rest are God awful. Only 3 of the conference teams they played this year have winning records. They got to skip the two best teams in the SEC this year (Alabama and LSU), lucky them. Nebraska has played 7 teams with winning records, 4 of which have 9+ wins, and 5 of those 7 teams are in-conference. They played EVERY good team in the Big-10, and skipped 3 of the worst. The Huskers' downfall is turnovers and good QB's. You can never tell about turnovers in bowl games, but as QB's go, Nebraska has faced better than Connor Shaw many times this year. I see a close game, but I see a Husker win by a field goal. Nebraska +2.5 |
Covers | 33 |
|
|
Snow, 32 degrees, and about 7,000 feet of elevation change and this kind of spread against a 5-2 Wyoming team... I'll take the Cowboys and the points
|
Covers | 13 |
|
|
More food for thought. Nebraska has lost only 1 game out of the last 30 by more than 7 points. That's 1 of 6 losses since Nov 1, 2008. The loss on that date? Destroyed by none other than Oklahoma, the team that played in (and lost) the National Championship that year.
This is the last game in one of the biggest rivalries in college football history. Huge for both sides. |
Covers | 47 |
|
|
Here's a few significant stats:
Oklahoma has the #4 rated pass offense in Div 1. Nebraska has the #2 rated pass defense in Div 1. Should be a close game. My favorite stat? Husker CB Prince Amukamara has had passes thrown at receivers he has covered 40 times this year. That's less than 4 times per game, and he usually covers the best WR on any team the Huskers have faced. Only thrown at less than 4 times per game... He has allowed 11 completions. 5 of those were against arguably the best WR in college football, Justin Blackmon. That means that over 10 games (excluding Oklahoma State) Prince has allowed 6 receptions (far less than 1 per game, or a dead even 1 per game if you include Blackmon) against each team's top receiver. For that reason, expect Ryan Broyles to be almost a non-factor in this game. With the Huskers' defense's team speed, expect DeMarco Murray to have limited success receiving as well. For OU to win, they will have to do it in the running game with Murray, which is the Huskers' weakness on defense. Expect Nebraska to play well offensively, as Oklahoma ranks in the bottom half in the nation in pass defense and run defense, but they will play better than average in this game. Oklahoma will be held to 27 or less in this game. If NU proves to be one-dimensional, they will probably score less than that. If their offense shows some originality and uses their playmakers like they should (like in the Colorado game), you may see Nebraska score up to 40 on this porous Oklahoma D. For me, Nebraska can be too one-dimensional without a perfectly healthy Taylor Martinez. If he were healthy, I would go with NU. But I see OU winning by around 7-10, with the game being decided late. Expect a close game through 3 quarters, with lots of lead changes. If Nebraska plays like they can on O, it's 37-27 NU. But it looks like OU 27-20 from the feel of it. I expect NU's inept OC Shawn Watson to get creative for this game about a week-and-a-half after it's over. Long story short, OU -4.5 very small play. |
Covers | 47 |
|
|
I wouldn't call OU's defense dominant in any stretch of the imagination. They seem to play well in their home stadium, occasionally, while looking like crap defensively on the road.
I know that these two teams can piss on each other from their own dorm rooms, but nobody in the big-12 south is more than a 5-hour drive apart. I don't expect OU's defense to show up against the best offense (by far) they've faced all year, no matter where they play. I don't expect OSU's defense to show up against any team with an offense ranked higher than 80th. Winner of this game faces Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship (OSU outright, or OU as the highest ranked in a 3-way tie), so both teams will be jacked up to play. That said, I'll take the Over as the safest bet involving this game. Over 67 |
Covers | 36 |
|
|
Lean Colorado, HARD. If you're feeling like taking a risk, throw a little on the ML.
Huskers will have to rely almost solely on Helu, and Rex Burkhead running the simplest version of the wildcat ever imagined (brilliant OC we have). With Cody Green as QB, it's a disaster. Can't run, can't pass, and can't hold on to the ball. Take Niles Paul out of the game as well, and unless Colorado's run D completely lays an egg, the Huskers won't break 21 points. Actually, make that 17, because the officiating crew will find a way to turn a Husker TD drive into a field goal attempt. The only way Nebraska wins the game is if the defense put up the same kind of performance they have the last two weeks. In fact, now that I said that, the Under looks great too. Buffs +16.5, Under 50, and if I weren't a Husker fan, I'd put a small play on the Colorado money line too. |
Covers | 31 |
|
|
SDSU, now with 3 losses... by 3, 3, and 5.
They may really have something. They're no elite team, but they're not half bad. And Utah went from 5th to f**ked in 2 weeks... I'll take a shot on SDSU to cover +2.5 |
Covers | 20 |
|
|
over 64.5.
Both teams are always good for at least 4 TD's apiece. Baylor's D isn't there, and Oklahoma having a D show up seems more like an exception this year than the rule. |
Covers | 17 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.