herbshack

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herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Haven't been betting the playoffs much. Sweet hit on the Chargers though as 3.5 dogs last week in NFL. 

For today though in MLB I like this one, but go light or pass:

Los Angeles Dodgers -1.25 +124
vs Chicago Cubs
$154 to win $190.96 

  • TREND OF THE DAY: Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games. Now at +56.88 units and active on the Dodgers today!

  • The Dodgers are 7-0 ON since Sep 24, 2017 at home

  • Since 2004, when favorites win in the playoffs, the runline is historically, the better option: 183-0 +64.2% roi for the ML vs. 106-38 +79.6% roi for the RL


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Chicago Cubs +115 
vs Washington Nationals
$98 to win $112.70

A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is 758-939 +82.07 units since 2004.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
...and I'm taking the Chargers +3 for plus odds in the NFL this weekend as my Top play. I usually do well on those...

Not sure if I'm going to have time to run a separate NFL/NCAAF thread yet. Most likely will just adjourn here till next year when MLB ends I think. Important to take breaks! Sometimes it gets to be too much and you have to remember to enjoy what you've reaped!



herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by bojangles804:
AZ pulled it off, great call again Herb!


Thanks. Haven't seen many dogs I like in the playoffs so far.

I have a runline plus odds play though. Keep it small:

Washington Nationals -1.25 +133
vs Chicago Cubs
$77 to win $102.41

  • KEY TREND OF THE DAY: Since 2015, in the second half of the season + playoffs, home favorites -120 to -250 are 797-438 +109.49 units as long as they didn't just shut out their last opponent and their last game's margin was between -6 and 4 (now extreme blowout wins or losses; just a normal situation): ACTIVE Today to Play on the Nationals!

  • TEAM TREND OF THE DAY: The Cubs are 0-15 SU as a 140-plus dog when opponents starter has a strike-per-ball ratio greater than 1.925 on the season.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by OlDirtyBaztid:
LET'S GET 'EM, HERB. HAPPY TO BE ON THE SAME SIDE AS YOU FOR THIS ONE!

Zack Greinke is 73-18 80.2%, +43.47 units SU as a 120+ home favorite (career). 

I've been riding that since is was that record. Now its at 101-27 78.9% +55.45 units. Good in the playoffs too; especially on the runline. 

Good for beer money at least.

I have a system against the D-Backs though: 
*LATE SEASON SYSTEM : 291 - 316 +121.08 units SU +19.9% roi - Very late season or playoffs +115 to +270 conference dog; total is 8.5 or 9 (Active to play on the Rockies)

Also, 

The Rockies are 7-3 ON +94.2% roi since Aug 26, 2017 as a road dog - That's kind of crazy. The Rockies scare me, but I still trust Greinke a lot. He's a total freak anomaly.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by justliketoplay:

Herb I just wanted to say that you are a very disciplined and a very patient gambler two of the many traits that most gamblers do NOT have. You are like a bob cat in the dark waiting for that opportunity to pounce on it's prey.

Didn't like the dog at all last night in Minnesota not even with the run line and nothing stood out for you that merited a play....That my friend is Discipline as well as the Patience to wait it out by NOT forcing a play. That is what makes you so successful in your gambling endeavors.

Kudos to you Herb Your systems and analysis on the game should NEVER be overlooked as they are proven long term and even short term after seeing your profits in the month of September to be profitable and that in itself is a very hard accomplishment in this world of gambling that we all seem to want to beat.

Keep doing what your doing Herb and thanks for the extra that you have given us with your high percentage live dogs.


"Bobcat" lol k. I'll take that. <3 Much love brutha. Thanks for the compliments. 
I've gotten lucky. 

Patience and taking things slow and passing on iffy deals is how you get somewhere. Applies to more than gambling....thought for the day :)


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Greinke is a beast as a home favorite. That's my lean for tonight's game.

I'm taking the D-Backs -1.25 for about +108 odds.
Not super strong play though.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:
Another doggie before September ends. 
But don't wake me up, more dogs in the playoffs lol

For today:

Kansas City Royals +100 
vs Arizona Diamondbacks
$188 to win $188
  • WINNER!


Current Bankroll: $13,791.99
from $4000 (+244.80 units)

Another new all time high reached...and now the playoffs :)

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Another doggie before September ends. 
But don't wake me up, more dogs in the playoffs lol

For today:

Kansas City Royals +100 
vs Arizona Diamondbacks
$188 to win $188

  • SYSTEM OF THE DAY: A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is 758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. - Active to play on the Royals and now up a +87 units!

  • TEAM TREND OF THE DAY: Under Ned Yost, the Royals have been profitable against tough plus .500 opponents at 214-225 +36.49 units. - This is up at +50.04 units now. Sort of dull, outdated trend a bit, but still good.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Oh, you know. Each day's better than the next...

For today:

Kansas City Royals +138 
vs Arizona Diamondbacks
$185 to win $255.30
WINNER!

Current Bankroll: $13,603.99
from $4000 (+240.10 units)

Another. New all time high reached :D

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by royboymiami:
Herb how's everything with the situation u had a week or so ago? Hoping all is well bud 

Oh, you know. Each day's better than the next...

For today:

Kansas City Royals +138 
vs Arizona Diamondbacks
$185 to win $255.30

SYSTEM OF THE DAY: Plus .500 Teams off of a walk off win are 433-356 SU -103.72 units (+54.12 units to fade) against sub .500 teams. (Active to Fade the Nats and D-Backs)

Add to that, FILTER: Zack Greinke is just 42-81 -45.32 units SU on the road as neither a big favorite or a big dog and total between 6.5 and 10.5.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

Philadelphia Phillies +1 +116

vs Washington Nationals

$117 to win $135.72


WINNER!


Current Bankroll: $13,348.69
from $4000 (+233.72 units)

There we go. New all time high reached :)

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dbasports:
You don't play every trend you have only certain games even if there's multiples options? What's the strategy

Quality over quantity. 

I believe passing is King.

Best bet you'll ever make is one you don't make. Remember that. Took me a long while to realize.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dallasm:
As I've said in the past, best thread on Covers.  

Cheers, to that brutha. I don't look at any of the others. Curious to know what I'm doing right so I know to keep on doing that. :)

And don't say "winning" because we're a little down from the last thread long high, but not by too much :P

Personally, I like to think that the most valuable thing for you guys would be the systems I share as, if I ever stopped this thread (and I eventually will of course) it'll mostly be due to you having enough to keep on doing the same thing in the future. I always, honestly hoped you guys would share some stealthy systems or MM strategies too a bit more. Maybe we'll get some of that going or in another thread.

GO PHILLIES!

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Giants looked good earlier (buy play went off), and I like the Rangers +170 along with the LA Angels -180 this afternoon. Passing, but just thought I'd share some runner up good leans if you're looking for more or doing your own stuff.

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by therealdutch:


i've followed a lot of your plays successfully.  didn't have a side on that one b/c had other games in play, so it didn't really make a difference to me.  i just noticed that your trend was based on a certain type of play from teams and wanted to note that the rule change *could* effect that.  information sharing is the real value of these forums.

keep 'em coming


"not the first time" = You stirred the pot in the thread before for, sorry, but a dumb reason: "What happened to the dogs" -- This time a math error. Math error is fine and human. Let's keep truckin' -- as you say, we are indeed all in this together in a way. I appreciate your feedback, but some of it is pointless and drama causing. 

Its all good, and I'm glad to hear you're winning. Bottom line again: you've made more positive contributions than negative, and you have my thanks along with everyone else who shares additional insight.....which, by the way, if I don't respond, know this: once a week, I do sit down and read everything and keep specific notepads of ideas that weren't mine. Some of my best betting ideas, weren't mine.

I always tell people (and yes I run a service "PCG" that does those raw numbers to help you do your own betting), you guys don't really need me because the picking of plays is never the hard part in betting. The only things that makes things difficult are human error and our human nature, lack of discipline and money management. That's really where they getcha! :)


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post

Philadelphia Phillies +1 +116

vs Washington Nationals

$117 to win $135.72


I don't recommend the moneyline here. At the very least, use the calculator and do a +0.75 wager, but, and this is rare, I actually like the full +1.5 runline here as I believe the game will be very close. If the Nats win, it'll be a lazy, didn't really need it or want it a ton win being clinched and the Phillies feeling non-threatening and all.


SYSTEM OF THE DAY:  Home underdogs (sub .400) are 94-91 +33.17 units SU and solid on the runline after winning SU as home underdogs against the same opponent as last game.
 

TEAM TREND OF THE DAY: The Nationals are 2-17 RL as a road favorite off a loss as a favorite in which they held the lead. -- Consider the +1 or +1.5 runline here on the Phillies here!



herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:
Minnesota Twins +180 
vs Cleveland Indians
$89 to win $160.20
WINNER!


Current Bankroll: $13,212.97
from $4000 (+230.32 units)

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jorgelb47:
Dutch did you fail math in school????

And other things too maybe

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Minnesota Twins +180 
vs Cleveland Indians
$89 to win $160.20

Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
$86 to win $236.5
San Francisco Giants +275 
vs Los Angeles Dodgers

SYSTEM OF THE DAY: A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is 758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. - Take the Giants!


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by PlayWithThem:

Great post, Herb. After all, we are a community.

I'm surprised how many people here at covers know, without me ever having said, what SDQL is. I'll have to share this thread with Joe.

SDQL is completely free (sportsdatabase.com) to the public.

I think it would be cool if we share the actual SDQL code for these systems...maybe another SDQL system sharing thread is in order, but I'm not sure if the forum mods are okay with that. Anyone know?

Example: The "SDQL" for yesterday's system ('A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. Active of the Padres and White Sox') is:

D and p:D and p:W and p:runs <= 3

Anyone interested in starting a thread like that? (SDQL System sharing?)



herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:
For today:

Chicago White Sox +117 
vs Kansas City Royals
$118 to win $138.06

WINNER!

PCG newsletter stuff went 5-0 yesterday. 3-0 in CFL and 2-0 on the MLB dogs (also too the Mariners. Awesome run in Football over on that side of the fence :P 

Current Bankroll: $13,138.77
from $4000 (+221.76 units)

Will follow up if I have a play. Looking at the games...

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by bojangles804:
I have!  Since you last spoke about it a few weeks back, I've been tinkering with the SDQL and I've found some very interesting trends.  It's clear to me now how this becomes more of a strategical investment as oppose to just gambling.  Appreciate you for all the insights and I look forward to your posts daily!  Keep it up Herb!!!

Yes! Good for you. I'm one of the sellers on the SDQL (Killersports) Trend Mart. Helped start that thing. Mainly because I appreciate what Joe Meyer over there did so much: It is a free to the public service.

Please consider supporting him by storing the trends I share (if you know how to query them) for $2

Yes, you can just bookmark them for free, but he does have to pay expensive server costs. :)

But bottom line: After running this thread for years now and sharing my valuable trends, it makes me happy to see people become their own independent gamblers gone investors. Building community is a good thing....so please share trends you guys find as well. Help others and you truly help yourself!


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
For today:

Chicago White Sox +117 
vs Kansas City Royals
$118 to win $138.06

KEY SYSTEM OF THE DAY: A Dog off of a a win as a dog where they scored 3 or fewer runs is 758-939 +82.07 units since 2004. Active of the Padres and White Sox




herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

$89 to win $104.13
San Diego Padres +117 
vs Colorado Rockies
WINNER!

The Padres were barkin'

Current Bankroll: $13,000.71
from $4000 (+221.76 units)

I think we're still just a bit below a previous high by like $200 or $300, but getting out of my personal funk here. Admittedly, my one screw up was bein ill and not posting these two +200 ish doggies which I feel very bad about. I hope you guys are saving all of these systems I'm sharing and doing a little of your own betting or trying to learn to.


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:
 

Two dogs today for $77 each:

Atlanta Braves +144  LOST
vs Washington Nationals

and 

Texas Rangers +134  WINNER!
vs Seattle Mariners

Slight gainer 1-1 on the dogs...

Current Bankroll: $12,896.58
from $4000 (+221.76 units)

For Today:

$89 to win $104.13
San Diego Padres +117 
vs Colorado Rockies

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
Two dogs today for $77 each:

Atlanta Braves +144 
vs Washington Nationals

and 

Texas Rangers +134 
vs Seattle Mariners

SYSTEM OF THE DAY: Fade plus .600 Favorites at the end of regular season: 218-185 -93.44 units SU +15.5% roi fade. Very simple, very powerful.

SYSTEM OF MONTH: ???????Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!
Profited up to +40 units - slight gain so far.
Active on the Angels, White Sox and Phillies if you want to consider those as well!


herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
For today:

Pittsburgh Pirates +111 
vs Milwaukee Brewers
$89 to win $98.79

KEY SYSTEM: Since 2004, sub .500 home division dogs, +100 to +145, off of a loss as a home favorite are 145-114 +49.56 units SU +19.1% roi. - Take the Pirates

 

herbshack
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dbasports:
Thank you sir my comment about cheating on her was a bad joke but gave us some good karma again because we know you wouldn't do that 

Oh its ok. I just didn't respond. I'm too 'head-in-the-books' to even have time for cheating non-sense  :P

Divorcing isn't good or healthy, and I really don't want to advocate it to anyone. It is unfortunate that I'm petitioning one. As reluctant as I am to be the one to file, I'll let you do the math as to what happened...

Anyways, some thoughts here for September:
(As the thread title is 'SEPTEMBER DOGS', I wanted to briefly talk about MLB and how it has changed in the last few years since I began this thread roughly)

Up until the last several years (after they added the extra wild card spot) Septembers were my best month just blindly taking big dogs against clinched over valued favs. The rules changed though. September isn't dogs on the blind month anymore. Definitely more thinking required now.

Consider the following COLD HARD FACTS:

My first post was in 2012

*Since 2005 to 2011, (prior to the first season the extra wild card spot was added), September dogs were, 1245-1614 +77.68 units on the blind.

*Since 2012 (first season wild card spot was added), September dogs are flip flopped: 932-1376 -110.03 units.

It seems telling what happened if you understood the premise of betting dogs late season to begin with: you bet against overvalued, don't need the win favorites. Things are different now, more often, team do need a win...MLB wanted to make late regular season more interesting. so no more freebies.

So I wanted to test the original premise, isolating post 2011 season results only: The thought: does the original premise STILL hold up, but this time we isolate dogs with opponents with a plethora of wins above .500.

Let's see what recent history says:

BINGO!

Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!

The premise holds true, it just needed to be more clearly defined. This is why keeping up with the rules and recent news in sports you cap is important.

That simple system is active on the Royals today. Will follow up if I'm betting them though.






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