Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
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Good post |
DogbiteWilliams | 29 |
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“However if this same game were to be played 10 times SF would win 9 and by DD pts 5 times. VERY very much an outlier.” This is absurd. I think with the FanDuel legal era of bettors flooding the market…..this is the new norm. Watching the same game I watched and it’s either always rigged or “their” team should have won by double digits. This was a great game between imo the two best teams in each conference. And they went and duked it out into almost a second OT. KC had like 12 total yards in the first Q and they still piled up almost 500 total yards on that defense. More first down, more rushing, more passing yards. Better efficiency 3rd and 4th down. Where is this SF blowout?? Yes they muffed a punt. But Pacheco also fumbled inside the 5. I keep hearing it was rigged. Or why didn’t SF run the ball?? MCCAFF HAD 31 TOUCHES!!!!! This was one good football game. Andy Reid made 1-2 more adjustments than the opposing coach who actually admitted he didn’t know the f’n OT rules. And 3 time SB mvp Mahomes. Made ONE more play than a 2nd year kid who was drafted 282nd. If they play 10x it probably is 5-5. Maybe 6-4 KC. (Or even 7-3 with some of those injuries piling up). 9-1 SF. smh |
DogbiteWilliams | 29 |
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Great stuff, Andy……
Just seeing this now….great game…..could have gone either way a dozen times…… In the end, that Niners D was the difference. They have been BAD last 6-7 weeks. Only Sam Howell and the Redskins did NOT shred this defense last couple months. Chiefs piled up 460 yards despite having 15 yards in the first Q. Despite all that, Niners played well. Hung in there. Made some good adjustments because they didn’t do anything for a good 30 minute period (mostly 2nd and 3rd Q) and then when KC went up 13-10 I said this is a blowout and SF fought for their lives!!
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andarmac99 | 51 |
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Actually……unders hit at a crazy clip so was it that chalky? |
ABLP0609 | 9 |
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Definitely a chalky year, if u old school looking at games and totals Today’s generation of bettors and all the exotics and all the props…..imo more than washes out the old way of thinking. But talking spreads, I think 2008 was last year so many favorites won. |
ABLP0609 | 9 |
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Tough to point fingers in a game like this. Two good teams. Went back and forth a dozen times. |
bunny651 | 6 |
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replied to
***Macwesties * Sun. Feb. 11, 2024 * NFL * Super Bowl LV111 * Football Plays***
in NFL Betting GL Mac I love KC as well. |
Macwestie1 | 74 |
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“Sharp” money really go early like it used to? Between all the injuries, the weather, and then the bowl game fiasco of 2023…..not sure the big dogs are firing away like that. Unless it’s the sort of day trader people playing games getting positions…..which u can’t trust that early money anyway. |
unplucked_gem | 23 |
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60 minutes was the nail in their coffin! As a small time bookie back then, barely out of high school in a medium sized NJ/NY organization….that was tough to watch. Our sites were just starting to mirror WSEX and it went from 98% phone action to 2% internet to about 50/50% and then poof it was gone and the group did keep some of the good stuff, but things went backwards until about the mid 2000s.
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vanzack | 30 |
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GL Van I went Chiefs +2.5 and Chiefs ML each for a unit. One thing I don’t like is KC was really on a roll….really out there grinding and winning and that was before the real playoffs even started. This week off might…..disrupt that. Besides that, I like the chiefs in every way. I like how chiefs offense matches up with the niner D. Especially the last 5-6 games where they have been horrid. Only the mighty Redskins afforded the niners D a game like people perceive them. Chiefs D…..yea SF can probably run on them if they truly come out to pound the rock 40/50x…..but I just don’t think they will. On the other side though, we will see KC run the ball and control things. Like most of the playoffs, I think we see an efficient chiefs offense. I think they get a lead and nurse it home. SF lives on big plays. We watched them week after week pop off these giant game changing plays and I don’t think this Spagonola D allows it. All year they have been great at avoiding those damaging big plays, and I think they do the same Sunday. Two good coaches so I think it will be one of those shortened kind of games. 21-17 or 20-14 or 24-21. Two very good well coached teams doing what they do. Limited possessions and all that. That’s my 2 cents. Enjoy the game, win or lose. This was a great year and I don’t want it to end…….gonna be agony until Sept 5th. |
vanzack | 89 |
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TJ isn’t wrong about live lines. Today it’s all software and algorithms to have 100 games over 11 sports updating second by second. But all that is built on the opening line(s). (Which was what I thought this convo started with). It don’t take a rocket scientist to be able to guess opening lines almost 100%. If you been betting your hard earned money every September for 5-10-20-30 years. And u STILL can’t look at a game of two pretty even teams and say Home team -2.5 or -3…….you really need to find a new hobby. |
JimmyGape | 104 |
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I just think it’s funny people think to set NFL lines…..it’s some kind of rocket science. Even college is elementary stuff. Anyone who has been betting/watching football with half a brain can look at a NFL card on Monday morning and set the lines pretty much on the dot to the real lines. If that’s “ Vegas magic” to u…..find something else to do with your money. |
JimmyGape | 104 |
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Mind boggling plan of attack. the only thing I can think of is Monken and Harbaugh game planned this to out “chess” the master Andy Reid. But even then!!!!
How do u not come out of halftime adjusting that? Maybe they just had this idea Lamar is a guy who can carry his team…..when imo he’s never really showed that. He’s talented as hell…..but u see how purdy changes a team, you see how mahomes put the team on his back…..Lamar hasn’t shown that. To me, he’s shown when Baltimore D and ST are poppin….when the run game is going for 150-200 every game. Mix in some RPO, mix in teams with 9 in box to stop that run and he beats defenses 1 on 1……occasionally a magical extend the play for a huge gain…..he’s shown he can do that…..but when nothings working. Go out and go 27/35 for 320 and 3 TD and carry us…….nope. Maybe the staff thought he COULD do that if they played that chess game of doing opposite what they SHOULD. |
undermysac | 81 |
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How dumb was it to lose that timeout late? Complete and total STUBBORN and then MENTAL breakdown in the biggest of spots. |
lookingtowin | 89 |
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Nice lions backdoor!
Although you should have never been in position to have to backdoor. That coach is a menace. Nothing wrong with being aggressive and believing in your guys bleh bleh blah. But cmon, kick that first FG to go up 24-7 and I bet none of that crazy comeback happens….smh 4 minutes later it’s 24-24 instead of SF down 17 and playing off their game. Just bad coaching. Easy to be reckless weeks 1-14 against the bears and Vikings. But when they were playing for the bye…..burnt them!! Should have burnt them against the Rams, and this was a meltdown of all ages culminating in losing that TO running for a TD late. Bad news! |
vanzack | 140 |
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Andy!!! What’s up dude? Just seeing this now after the fact, but I pounded the Chiefs +4.5. Now just need this stiff Purdy to get to 21 completions to finish off the day. He has the perfect game script to pile up completions, but he’s stinking it up. GL dude, good seeing u post! |
andarmac99 | 69 |
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Good thread and info |
Indigo999 | 65 |
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Or they the dummies flying out Sat night? |
glyde69 | 4 |
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This the 3rd time in the last week this forum giving out some real BS information…..
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jowchoo | 38 |
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I don’t have a strong opinion either way. Just something I was kicking around that got a dozen people up in arms. Spreads of 9.5, 9.5, 6.5 and u can make an argument that all 3 right now have the better QB getting those points. |
glyde69 | 21 |
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