erratic

Member Since:August 2012
Location:Reno, NV

Recent Posts

Date Post Entry

erratic
NFL Betting > Prop of the day.... > View Post
Chicago Bears RB Jordan Howard OV 76.5 yds rushing.

The Bears are one of the few teams that run just about as much as they pass. Look for the Bears to keep rookie QB Trubisky positive and run the ball plenty. Not to mention that CAR gives up 4.0 YPC so far this year. Take it while you can.

erratic
NFL Betting > If you're gonna be a bear be a grizzly. > View Post
Go big or go home. Take 2...
  • NYG
  • SF
  • LAR
  • GB
  • CHI
  • NYJ
  • BAL
  • CIN
  • IND
  • CLE
Sometimes you just have to roll the dice.

erratic
NFL Betting > If you're gonna be a bear be a grizzly. > View Post
Go big or go home.... ML dog ticket for today
  • CIN
  • SF
  • NYJ
  • NYG
  • ATL

erratic
NFL Betting > Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 7 > View Post
Quick note.... 
77% of my correct picks in the SC this year have been dogs.


erratic
NFL Betting > Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 7 > View Post
Time to start my comeback (again)
These are my wk 7 picks..
  • CIN +5.5
  • NYJ +3.0
  • NYG +5.5
  • DEN +1.5
  • ATL +3.5
I'm a little worried about CIN since they are the top consensus pick this week and DEN is top 5 as well.
All in all dogs seem to be the way to go this year. Check out the SC stats....

Season Record
  • HF ATS 22-35-1 38.6%
  • HD ATS 21-10-1 67.7%
  • RF ATS 10-21-1 32.3%
  • RD ATS 35-22-1 61.4%

erratic
NFL Betting > LARRY IS BACK ON HIS NFL GRIND!!!! BACK IT UP BACK IT IN LET ME BEGIN!!!! > View Post
I came to win - battle me that's a sin.

erratic
NFL Betting > SuperContest lines - Week 7 > View Post
http://www.footballcontestproxy.com/

erratic
NFL Betting > SuperContest lines - Week 7 > View Post
That is a copy/paste from the email they send me

erratic
NFL Betting > SuperContest lines - Week 7 > View Post
My proxy has premium service & part of that is early lines.

erratic
NFL Betting > SuperContest lines - Week 7 > View Post
Week 7 SuperContest lines are listed below...

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 19, 2017
  • 1 Chiefs 2 Raiders* 3
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2017
  • 3 Titans 4 Browns* 5.5
  • 5 Jaguars 6 Colts* 3.5
  • 7 Steelers* 8 Bengals 5.5
  • 9  Vikings* 10 Ravens 5.5
  • 11 Dolphins* 12 Jets 3
  • 13 Bills* 14 Buccaneers 3.5
  • 15 Panthers 16 Bears* 3
  • 17 Saints 18 Packers* 5.5
  • 19 Rams 20 Cardinals** 3.5
  • 21 Cowboys 22 49ers* 6.5
  • 23 Seahawks 24 Giants* 5.5
  • 25 Chargers* 26 Broncos 1.5
  • 27 Patriots* 28 Falcons 3.5
MONDAY, OCTOBER 23, 2017
  • 29 Eagles* 30 Redskins 5

*Home team   **In London   Favorite on left

BOL to ALL
I know I need it.

erratic
NFL Betting > Morning Prop > View Post
Just a little wager on the horrible running game for Miami & the likelihood they will have to pass a lot to keep up with the Falcons.
  • Jay Ajayi UNDER 68.5 yds rushing (he is averaging 65.25)
P E A C E ! ! !

erratic
NFL Betting > 3 dog day.... sometimes you gotta go with the unexpected > View Post
Straight money line...
  • +370 - Jets ML
  • +200 - Bears ML
  • +400 - Niners ML
BOL today & MTSBWY


erratic
NFL Betting > Three leg 1H morning parlay > View Post
Throwing this to the wall to see if it sticks... wish me luck. ($25 for $165)
  • BAL -3.5
  • ATL -7
  • HOU -6
I'm obviously looking for fast starts with good teams playing. 
Here's to 14-0 at halftime for all three.

erratic
NFL Betting > Has Cutler Reached Rock Bottom? > View Post
Pretty sure he was already at rock bottom. MIA was reaching when they grabbed him. As much as nobody likes Colin he would have at least elevated their run game which is surprisingly horrible.

erratic
NFL Betting > Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 6 > View Post
Here we go again... 
Very poor outing thus far. 11-14 thru week 5. Wanted to play Phi yesterday but didn't have my shiot together for all 5. Anyway, good pick are always made but not always selected. 
Here we go!
  • NYJ +9
  • SF  +10
  • JAC -2.5
  • TB -2.5
  • IND +6.5
The Jets aren't quite as bad as most think & the Patriots are of course not the same. Not to mention its a div game and...
  • Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • NE 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
  • NE 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New York.
  • NE road margin of victory L3Y: +6.5 points
  • NYJ home margin of vistory L3Y: -0.5 points
Final score: 27-20 Pats.

The Niners are also not as bad as some might assume. Washington is of course more rested but even though SF is on its 3rd road game following BB OT games they are hungry. So close yet so far away from winning. This week will be the same & quite possible an upset in the making.
Also...
  • 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a bye week.
Final score: 24-22 Skins.

Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Jacksonville. They are much better than the Rams in many different ways. Not only do they have a worse RD offense they have a worse RD defense. Plus the Jags own them in the TO margin category.
  • JAC 63% RZ OFF - 42% RZ DEF
  • LAR 48% RZ OFF - 63% RZ DEF
  • JAC +10 TO Margin
  • LAR -1 TO Margin
  • JAC fumbles every 124.5 times the ball leave the QBs hands.
  • LAR fumble the ball every 18.6 times the ball leaves the QBs hands
Final score: 28-23 Jags

Tampa Bay is just flat out better than AZ. The Cardinals are washed up, old & tired. The Cards can't score in the RZ & they can't stop teams in the RZ. The Bucs have more to prove as well.
  • AZ 82% RZ defense & 31% RZ offense
  • AZ 1-5 L6 HM
  • TB 5-2 L7 RD
Final score: 21-17 Bucs

Finally the Colts. For TEN the likely hood of MM playing is slim. From what the HC said its doubtful that he will. This is a division game as well.
TEN 73.7% RZ DEF (allowed)
IND 57% RZ OFF
IND 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
IND 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tennessee.

Final score: 21-20 Colts

Hopefully this turns things around for my contest entry. Its difficult to stay up coming up short.
BOL & MTSBWY

erratic
NFL Betting > Bucs -2 > View Post
Can't forget...
  • AZ 1-5 L6 HM
  • AZ 82% RZ DEF (allowed)
  • AZ 31% RZ OFF
  • TB 5-2 L7 RD
Bucs -2.5

erratic
NFL Betting > *** Wk6 New England Patriots @ New York Jets *** > View Post
A few more things to remember...

Div game
Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Patriots are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Patriots are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings in New York.

erratic
NFL Betting > Some interesting stats for the Steelers/KC game. Do with them what you will. > View Post
Keep this in mind too...
KC  avg MOV home L3Y is 7.0 points. Avg +1.5 ATS
PIT avg MOV road L3Y is 0.5 points. Avg -0.8 ATS

This year:
  • KC 5.7 rushing
  • PIT 5.0 rushing defense
  • KC 33 PPG
  • PIT 20 PPG
  • KC RZ OFF 65%
  • PIT RZ DEF 67%

erratic
NFL Betting > 49ers released NaVorro Bowman - WTF? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
That knee injury on the goal line in Seattle in the NFCCG still makes me queasy.



That is very true. Having you say that makes me queasy too. Remembering it is cringe worthy.

erratic
NFL Betting > 49ers released NaVorro Bowman - WTF? > View Post
Potential “win-win” for NaVorro Bowman
Posted by Mike Florio on October 13, 2017, 6:22 PM EDT

Getty Images
The good news for former 49ers linebacker Navorro Bowman is that he instantly becomes a free agent upon his release, able to pick his next team (and, possibly, a contender). The better news is that his salary for 2017 is fully guaranteed, meaning that he’ll get the rest of the $6.75 million base salary he was due to receive this year.  The best news is that he likely will be able to get all of that, plus keep whatever he gets elsewhere.

The guaranteed salary has offset language, which means that the 49ers would get a dollar-for-dollar credit for anything he earns elsewhere. However, Bowman has the right under the labor deal to collect the balance of his 2017 salary as termination pay, and to keep whatever he earns with another team.

It’s a potential “win-win” as one source explained it, adding that Bowman is “excited” about the development.

He should be. The 49ers have won two of 21 games over the past few years, and even if better days are coming they likely would have arrived after he was gone anyway. So it’s better to go now, get the rest of his guaranteed pay, pocket whatever else he can get with a new team, and chase the Super Bowl ring he nearly won in 2012 with the 49ers.

erratic
NFL Betting > 49ers released NaVorro Bowman - WTF? > View Post
Not sure why but apparently its true.

erratic
NFL Betting > Week 5 parlays > View Post
1h am
Un 23.0 Lac/Nyg
Un 20.0 Nyj/Cle
Ov 20.5 Jac/Pit
Un 21 Ten/Mia
Ov 22.0 Sf/Ind
Ov 22.5 Phi/Az

1h am
Phi -3.5
Sf    pk
Ten +0.5
Nyj   pk
Buf +2.5
Lac +2.5

Full gm am
Lar -1.5
Det -2.0
Jac +7.0
Buf +3.0
Lac +3.0

ML dogs
Jac ML
Buf ML
Lac ML

Full gm pm
Gb +2.5
Lar -1.5
Lar Un 47.5
Oak/ Bal un 40.5

Total wagered: $65
Total payout: $2,060

BOL & MTSBWY


erratic
NFL Betting > SC Consensus Picks: Do you ever worry when... > View Post
Do you ever worry when one of your picks is in the top five? I do.

Top five doesn't usually have a great "record" at the end of the year. I know last week DEN covered being #1 top five. In fact LW was 4-1 for the top five. LW 35% of the field took DEN. 963 to be exact. 

Now we have DET as #1 top five. WK5 38.5% are on DET. 1053 entries. Of course that is also one of my picks, so how about two weeks in a row for #1. Sounds good to me.

Here is the top ten:
# Team Line Picks Pct
1.  DET (-2.5) 1053 38.5%
2.  CIN (-3) 847 31%
3.  HOU PK 778 28.5%
4.  LAR (-1) 725 26.5%
5.  BUF (+3) 650 23.5%
6. KC PK 615 22.5%
7.  DAL (-2) 604 22%
8. GB  (+2) 584 21.5%
9. SEA  (+1) 571 21%
10. LAC   (+3.5) 560 20.5%

erratic
NFL Betting > I'm thinking 49ers +1.5 is a deal > View Post
That looks pretty good. I had TB but still haven't fired on a Thu game. Chargers & Bills are on my ticket & SF/GB were final cuts. 
Good luck!

erratic
NFL Betting > I'm thinking 49ers +1.5 is a deal > View Post
Almost used them myself but the 3 straight division games & being in the middle of a 3 game road trip as well as playing at 10am PST made it come off of my list. 
BOL if you choose to use them.

erratic
NFL Betting > Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 5 > View Post
Picking every game & finding the best edge is my strategy. Some are obvious no plays but from there its all assessment.
Heavily considered...
  • Jets
  • Vikings
Not too far away were...
  • Chiefs
  • Packers
  • Eagles
Also thought about...
  • Niners
On the outskirts were...
  • Raiders
  • Titans
Even though its over...
  • Bucs
Utilizing a new system referencing unique stats to create projections along with a Rank Index to indicate strength to the pick. With having a decent sample of data now consistency should rise.

erratic
NFL Betting > Bacon Power - 2017 SuperContest picks - week 5 > View Post
Rough start for my contest entry. Sitting at 9-11. Last week I suggested fading me and of course I go 4-1. Nick Folk cost me a perfect day with his missed kicks. 
Fade me, fade me not...
  • 4 Chargers
  • 6 Bills
  • 10 Jaguars
  • 17 Lions
  • 19 Rams
And unless you're opposite any of my picks...
BOL & MTSBWY

erratic
NFL Betting > LET me make TNF game simply easy for you we have a fraud home team > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Kaufee:
Zebra, do you use Meth?

That has to be the most accurate assessment ever.

erratic
NFL Betting > Why are so many people afraid to admit that they agree with Cam Netwon? > View Post
So just to get this straight.... both Aheeleze and Minimac put their panties on one leg at a time. Just what thought. 

You're both idiots to think any of this topic has anything to do with respect to women. How about respect to the sport of football. One in which no woman has first hand knowledge of aside from the handy they gave to the HS QB. Which we now know wasn't either of you. Its a shame you both miss the point. I'm sure your mommy and girly friend would be proud. And FYI several women have the same opinion I do on this. 

Women were interjected into football just to get more women watching. Having women on the sidelines, etc is all about ratings you tools. They are cheerleaders with more clothes on & holding a mic. A very phallic microphone.

P.S.
My mother is 70 and agrees. My wife is 37 and she agrees as well as her friends. And my daughter would never be dumb enough to pretend that she has valuable knowledge about a sport she has never played. Unlike the rest of society.

erratic
NFL Betting > Why are so many people afraid to admit that they agree with Cam Netwon? > View Post
#2 - Time and a place. Yep there is no time & no place for women commenting on this sport. Call me what you want but you know its true.
#3 - Agreed that it was a bit rude but the truth usually hurts.
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