echelon1

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echelon1
Pro Football > Carolina at Dallas (11/26/2015) > View Post

Yes, Romo the choker.  The guy with the highest QBR in all of football last year...above Rodgers and Brady.  


The same guy who is tied for BOTH the most 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives since 2006 than any other QB in football.


Or would that be the same Romo who's won 8 of his last 9 reg season starts?


I believe Dallas will lose this game as Carolina is a very solid, balanced team on both sides of the ball.  And Newton's legs are a huge "x" factor.


But slamming Romo just shows very limited football evaluation skills.  The guy is a top-tier QB these days which any honest, educated football fan would agree with. 


echelon1
College Football > Texas at Notre Dame (09/05/2015) > View Post
The scoring difference here will be Zaire and his legs.  A big, dual threat QB vs. inexperience and youth at LB.  To contain Zaire will require disciplined LB play.  While Texas has talented youth at the position, the inexperience will bring pursuit angle mistakes and being fooled on play-action.  

While Texas will put up a strong fight, and ND may be a little overrated, a handful of busted assignments should lead to big plays and an Irish win by over 10.  

echelon1
Pro Football > Philadelphia at Washington (12/20/2014) > View Post
That detailed game analysis posted above that was borrowed by the poster is wrong in a very important way.  Even if the Eagles win out, they are in the worst position of any teams that could be tied in wildcard tiebreaker scenarios.  They need to win out and hope Dallas loses to take NFC East title, or they are last in line to get wildcard at 11-5.  If they lose either of their last 2 games, there's less than 25% chance they get in at all.  Trust me, I ran all the scenarios.  So yeah they need to win, but they still need help regardless.

Cappers that base game predictions mostly off of stronger playoff implications for one team are often cleaned out.  It's a good indicator a team will bring a solid effort, but match-ups are still match-ups, especially when teams are rivals and always looking to end your season too.  

I do agree the Eagles win, and the Skins defense is gutted with injuries, but Wash also has solid match-ups over Philly too.  I'd say Eagles win by 7 but not in a route on the road against a rival that gave them hell the first match-up in Philly.  There was a reason Washington scored more on the Eagles defense than any other defense this season.  DeSean Jackson will have his guys ready to torch the Eagles through the air like they did for over 400+ last time.  

Be careful these last few weeks betting on teams just because it's crucial they win to make playoffs, it's a common fools mistake.  Hell, GB lost to a medicore Bills team, and Detroit almost lost to sorry Vikings.  And GB and Det are locked in a tough race for their division title.  Everyone picked them both to win easy last week because they needed to for best division title position. I "no played" both as I didn't like the spot for either.  Playoff motivation was ignored in favor of smart analysis, and the decision was correct.  Just saying, analyze and trust the matchups just as hard as any other week.  Playoff motivation should be a factor, but merely one of several other advantages you uncover.

echelon1
Pro Football > Dallas at Philadelphia (12/14/2014) > View Post
Nope, the game is gonna go like this...Dallas stops the run and makes Sanchez beat them, which he won't.

In 10 career meeting with McCoy...

4 times he went over 100 rushing...Dallas went 0-4
6 times he went under 100 rushing...Dallas went 5-1

McCoy has never gained 100 on Dallas twice in the same season.  
3 of 4 times they played in Philly, McCoy held under 100, Dallas won all 3.

All 4 Eagles losses this season McCoy went under 100 yards.

Dallas allows 81.4 rushing ypg. on the road  An improvement of 31.7 ypg over their season average of 113.1 ypg. 

Dallas is 6-0 on the road due to much better defense, even whipping on Seattle at their house.

Dallas DC Rod Marinelli declared this week their mission first and foremost is to shut down McCoy this time.  It will happen and as McCoy's career vs. Cowboys suggests...Dallas will win.

Forget the points, this is the Cowboys season on the line.  Even if they lose and go 11-5, they almost certainly miss the playoffs with Ariz, Seattle, and Detroit leading the conference record by 2 games.  Another conference loss for Dallas and bye bye.

Forget the points...Dallas shuts down McCoy, wins this game, and keeps their playoff mission alive...for the moment.

echelon1
Pro Football > Philadelphia at Dallas (11/27/2014) > View Post
I'd hope handicapping games involves more than taking the previous week's effort and applying it to the next week.  4-7 St. Louis beat 7-4 Seattle, 7-4 San Fran, and 8-3 Denver.  Every one of them won their following game.  

Bottom line is some good team's don't bring their "A game" when playing a lesser opponent.  Especially when it's a division rival on the road that they beat soundly the first meeting.  It's easy to walk into a firestorm when expecting the lesser team to be likely beatable again.  

Once Dallas realized they had a brawl on their hands, they won the second half 21-7 and saved the victory.  I guarantee they won't jog into the first half against the 8-3 Eagles with the division lead in the balance.  While Philly is a much stiffer challenge, it's also understood that the best Dallas effort is required here.  Don't expect to see the same Cowboys team forfeit the first half simply because they did the week prior.  Each week has it's own set of circumstances.

The Cowboys make a statement this week and overtake the Eagles at home.  Just as I expect the Eagles to even the score in Philly.  Cowboys win on Turkey Day.  I wouldn't give a full 3 points in this game as the likely outcome is tight and maybe a FG difference.  The over is a much better choice.

  

echelon1
College Football > Texas at Oklahoma State (11/15/2014) > View Post
Those who mentioned the inconsistency of Swoopes have it right in theory.  He can be a thorn in Texas' side in stretches.  It's not that he doesn't have the skills or physical ability to complete every pass route well, it's he has mental lapses that sometime lasts a quarter or more.  Although one thing he rarely does it throw picks...with just 6 on the season.  Also, the Texas oline does a pretty good job fending off the pass rush allowing only18 sacks (5th in Big 12).

HOWEVER, the Swoopes disadvantage takes an above average pass defense to kick into gear as they frustrate him as such.  The one area Okie St. struggles the most on D is stopping the pass.  They are last in yards per game and next to last in TD's allowed with 17.  This is not the type pass defense that will hinder Swoopes very long.  

He threw for over 52% completions and 200 yards 4 times this season.  Guess who it was against, 4 of the worst 5 pass defenses in the Big 12...with the other being Okie St he's yet to face.  The guy simply has success throwing against the lower pass defenses in the conference.  And the Cowboys are dead last in that area.

While I think it will be very close and Okie St. will come in ready to play, Swoopes having success in the air combined with serviceable running and solid Texas defense...this is a game Texas wins and covers.

echelon1
College Football > West Virginia at Texas (11/08/2014) > View Post
Go with West Va,  Texas fan here and we have no real home advantage to speak of this season.  2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS.  Two of those losses were by 34 and 21 at home.  Still haven't beaten a team with a winning record all season.  

Almost any decent coach could have come in and led our many returning starters to wins over North Texas, KU, ISU, and TT.  We've beaten everyone we should have even on a down year and no one better,  The 3 Big 12 teams we beat are a combined 1-15 in conference play, and 7-18 overall. Then throw in the 2-6 North Texas gimme win.  

West Va. is not a game we are supposed to win as they are clearly a better team.  That doesn't always mean much as upsets occur often.  However after 9 games, there is nothing to say Texas will buck the trend of playing exactly to our below average capabilities as a team.  The defense may keep it close into the second half, but the West Va. offense will pull away late and win by 10+.

echelon1
College Football > Texas at Texas Tech (11/01/2014) > View Post
You know life is bad for us Longhorns when nobody has posted a thing under the game messges.  lol   18 mph winds in Lubbock...yikes.  Don't know who that favors, I'd say it likely will hurt Texas and Swoopes more than the short passing offense Tech can easily adjust to run.  At the same time, Texas will likely have much ground success.  Very hard to win at Lubbock even when Texas has a good team.  I say this one comes down to a close finish.  Kinda leaning with Tech to cover and possibly steal win at home as they'll no doubt come in fired up for Horns.

echelon1
College Football > Texas at Oklahoma (10/11/2014) > View Post
If you've been a part of this game the last 20 years in person, you'd know all this love for the big favorite in this game is ridiculous.  Good luck with that one.  Heard all this same Texas is gonna get hammered talk last year when they were +13.5 dogs, then donkey punched Sooners by 16.  

Apparently many people don't understand what this game is about to these players.  While there is a decent shot OU will roll Texas (solid chance they simply win game), anyone betting BIG on it as a sure thing is a fool.  Usually when a team is blown out in this game they have a suspect defense.  Both defenses can play ball in this one.  So OU will likely get revenge due to a decimated Horns offense, and maybe by as much as 14, laying the 17 on the board today is insanity in the RRS.  I've seen way too many shocking outcomes in this game to be that moronic.  Especially when OU just showed the last 2 games they are far from a dominant team.  Hell, teasing Texas +24 would be much better of a lock.      

echelon1
College Football > Baylor at Texas (10/04/2014) > View Post
Don't let the high spread fool you...my Horns and our ridiculously simple, ineffective offense have no shot in keeping this under 21 margin.  There is not one single advantage we have in any area of offensive football against the Baylor defense...none.   We can't even run to shorten the game and move the chains to keep them off the field.  

The offense is shredded without starting QB, both tackles, center, and even only big play threat WR (Daje Johnson).  You don't have to run blitz Texas or use safety help to stop the Texas run.  Which means the ground game will be no help and the secondary can hang back and focus on any attempt at a passing game.  The simplistic play-caller Watson is no help whatsoever in delivering any kind of strategical offensive advantage.  It's really ugly on that side of the ball.

This one will get out of hand and Briles won't let off the gas or have an ounce of mercy.  He'll be throwing with the big lead well into the 4th quarter.  Guy is arrogant as they come with a strong dislike for the Horns.  Kicking us while we're down will be a treat for him as they are battling us over recruits.  I'm thinking something like 43-10.  

echelon1
College Football > Texas at Kansas (09/27/2014) > View Post
Texas def will play lights out in this one.  And KU has shown they can get shelled by the run like Duke did for 9.2 ypc.  The problem is Texas' consistency or lack thereof with Swoopes and the line.  BTW, look for Swoopes to scramble for first downs a lot more in this one.  

I hate to give up 10.5 to anyone with Texas' line trouble on offense and Swoopes being limited in the playbook.  However, all signs point to the staff letting Swoopes throw the ball downfield and take some shots in this one.  Add in the chains coming off to let him run when he sees it.  

Will be a refocused Texas team effort this week.  The bye week helped a lot and I believe this will be the perfect game for them to roll the dice and see how Swoopes performs without holding him down to just being a short gain, drive manager.  Going out on a limb and say the Horns win 31-16 and cover with a lot of intensity and confidence on both sides of the ball.

echelon1
College Football > Arkansas at Texas A&M (09/27/2014) > View Post
Both teams way overrated.  Both will drop 3 games in SEC play.  Just not sure which one is more overrated.  Aggies one win over a team with a pulse just happened to be the most overrated team in preseason Top-10 recent history with a miserable defense...S. Car.  

I expect this to be a close one, but not close enough for Arky to pull the upset as they are overrated also.  A&M at home should win by 7+ puling away very late.  Just not sold they have the defense to hold off a line busting final score by Arky.  This is a pass.  too many questioned unanswered for 2 overrated teams.  Arky did lose to Auburn, but A&M would to along the same scoring deficit.

echelon1
Pro Football > Dallas at St. Louis (09/21/2014) > View Post
Is that the same sucky Cowboys' line that paves the way for the current leading rusher in the NFL.  Over 5 yards a carry on 51 carries.  With only a long of 21, that's constant good yards.  Also,  that the same Ram's defense that is 30th in rushing allowed at 171 ypg.?

Yeah, I doubt very seriously you want to load the box to stop Murray and go one-on-one with Dez, Williams, and Witten.  Tell me what corner on the Rams has the top notch ability to hold down Dez in a single match-up.  That would be a quick death instead of getting bled out by Murray.

I guarantee you Dallas moves the ball well and scores at least 28 in this game.  The question is will the Dallas defense regress some and let the Ram's make it a game at home?  The answer is no, the Ram's offensive core is a mid level talented team.  Good enough to cause problems if their defense could hold Dallas in check in both the run and pass...they can't.  

This game is all Dallas.  In Dallas it would be a route.  Being in St. Louis, it may be a game, but still goes to the Cowboys.  No way Dallas goes 0-2 in the NFC heading into New Orleans game which likely will be another NFC loss.  

The individual player match-ups are largely in favor of the Cowboys.  Even the Ram's star rusher is matched on the Cowboys star OL.  The only huge prob for Dallas is TE Jared Cook.  He'll have a big game but you can't ride his back alone to victory.  

Last week, the Titans got pressure because their stud DE was on Doug Free.  Not same vulnerable mismatch this week.  Do the individual match-ups before each game, that's where you find real advantages.  If Ram's load the box, pressure will be irrelevant as Dallas will unload the ball quick to talented receivers beating single coverage.

Cowboys 30, Rams 19 

echelon1
College Football > UCLA at Texas (09/13/2014) > View Post
Texas D is being vastly underestimated and the Bruins D is being greatly overestimated.  The win will come from the Bruins moving the ball better because they have better offensive talent.  But a blowout will not happen in this one.  The struggling Texas offense will find some success in this less than impressive UCLA D.

367 yards and 17 first downs for Virginia vs UCLA D
469 yards and 24 first downs for Memphis vs. UCLA D

The key to Texas staying close is moving the ball at a decent, acceptable rate and not leaving the D on the field all night in bad field position.  If they can do that, Texas D will keep it close...they are a solid defense when not left in impossible situations all game.  
BYU had 6 at half.  But field position and TOP was atrocious for the Texas D in the 2nd half.  They were left out to dry by the offense.  UCLA just isn't shutting marginal teams down like that.  

The Texas offense will find just enough room to let their defense play at a high level most of the night.  Also have a feeling Nick Rose will make most of his kicks for Texas this week after struggling last 2 games.  He's got the leg and his accuracy will improve with more experience.  Still, Texas offense won't score enough to pull one out in the end.  

UCLA 27, Texas 20  

echelon1
Pro Football > San Francisco at Carolina (01/12/2014) > View Post
UNDER all day.  These defense were built to stop the style of the opposing offenses in this one.  With Steve Smith likely out or very limited, who do the Panthers throw to down the field that is realistically dangerous?  And what about SF?  They are horrible in pass offense.  Both teams are built to play rock wall defense and pound the ball on offense.  As I said, both can stop or seriously slow ground and pound style offenses.  Carolina being without (or limited) Smith and Stewart removes about 100 yards offense from the first meeting and the downfield passing dimension from their offense.  SF will run it again and again regardless.  This game sets up as 2 teams trying their best to avoid an offensive mistake as they know one turnover could cost the ballgame.  Pound the UNDER.

echelon1
Pro Football > Indianapolis at New England (01/11/2014) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by imaxfli:
This Colt defense gave up 44 to KC! without their star RB and 59 to NE over a month ago.....Brady and RB's will have big day and Belacheat won't  let Colt WR run all alone down the field!

They gave up only 7 to the same Chiefs on 12/22.  The 59 NE scored on the Colts was the 2012 season.  The Colts started slow last week, yes, and then they hammered them 35-6 the rest of the way.  Says a lot and brings a ton of playoff confidence if they go down on the scoreboard.

Let's not forget these Colts beat Denver (6), Seattle (6), and San Fran (20) this season.  And the Chiefs twice (3,16).  3 of the best defenses in the league.  Making them 5-2 against the playoff teams (lost to SD and Cincy).  The Pats are 2-2 against playoff teams with both wins by 3 points.  Lost by 7 and 4.  

Both teams are very evenly matched statistically.  Taking all of that into account, I'm going with the Colts head up.  May be a stretch for the outright win, but taking the points is a very solid pick.

echelon1
College Football > Oregon at Texas (12/30/2013) > View Post
I agree completely about fearing the intangibles if you bet with Oregon.  Oregon no doubt is built to destroy a defense like Texas plays and their weaknesses.  Yet the intangibles are clearly leaning to Texas, and Oregon even being relegated to this game is a downer for them.  

In bowl language that means look out.  Time and time again in bowls, the inferior team comes in with way more motivation and beats a team they should not.  That's the golden rule of bowl betting...break the game down, circle your pick, then check the motivation factor to make sure it is up to par for the team you are backing.  When a team comes in sky high and the other walks in feeling like their season is ending below their aspirations...it's usually a bowl recipe for a shocking defeat.

All that being said, Oregon still has one HUGE factor in their favor I cannot ignore...Texas can't handle dangerous running QB's.  Especially when they have their hands full covering all over the field.  No matter what intangibles are there, the Texas defense matches up horribly in this one, if not just for the Ducks QB.  Especially with the missing LB's.  

The d-line will have to control the line and severely get after the Oregon QB to slow him down.  They do have the talent to do so no doubt.  Texas certainly has the ability to hammer the run at a softer Oregon run defense and control clock.  

When the smoke clears, I just don't see the Horns holding down the Ducks' offense enough to hang all the way to the end.  And never forget, Case McCoy is still the QB.  He's a drive killer in himself.

Ducks by 14  

echelon1
Pro Football > Dallas at Washington (12/22/2013) > View Post
I love how people dismiss the entire situation to focus on emotions.  Sure Dallas blew a big lead and the defense looks like a wet paper bag.  Is it just me or did Washington lose to a much more pathetic Atlanta team than GB last week???   As a matter of fact hasn't Washington lost 6 in a row?  Get some perspective here.

I'm not saying Dallas is the hands down choice here, just saying just because it looks like Dallas is gimping around and shitting the bed, doesn't mean the team they are facing isn't 3 times more ineffective.  If this were Dallas vs. someone proving they can win now and then, then fade the Boys here.  But that's not the case with Washington, not at all.  They lost to the ATLANTA FALCONS for their 6th straight loss last week.  Think about it.

And believe it or not with Washington's lack of "multiple" dangerous receiving targets, the shitbag Dallas pass defense actually matches up much better with the Skins offense than they do with the majority of other teams. 

My key to this game is simple, do Sean Lee and/or Morris Claiborne play.  If either plays they can arrange a defensive formation to give them a better shot on defense.  With Claiborne, they will bring Church down as a hybrid MLB in the nickel and have 3 worthy corners and less scrub LB's on the field.  They've run this formation before and it is fairly effective for them.

With Lee in they can play more of a man attack in the front 7 as Lee, Wilber, and Holloman will be an effective LB unit to pair with the DL to at least hold their ground well.  Then the secondary can have a better setup than last week.  

But trying to compensate for all the LB's that went down while missing Claiborne is too much, and any decent passing offense should move the ball at will.  Cousins would eat their lunch.

Like I say, if you see Lee OR Claiborne back, Dallas is the pick.  If neither...I just can't see the defense putting up enough resistance...although the scorefest will be close.  Either way, betting Washington here is not a smart move whatsoever.  I'd go Dallas for the reasons above, or just make it a no-play if none of them occur.  Bet Washington at your own risk, it's not a solid, substantiated choice beyond whiplash emotion from being a Skins fan or disappointment in Dallas.  And betting for those reasons is just naive and fruitless.

echelon1
College Football > Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (12/07/2013) > View Post
That homefield edge is 1-4 last 5 times at Oklahoma St.  With cold and wind, don't forget OU has been hammer the ball on ground last 2 weeks.  And after Knight replaced Bell at QB two weeks ago he has run from 80+ and 130+ in those games.  OU just ran for over 300 at KSU, OSU got 85 on same defense.  Just saying, this game will be so much closer than the comments here are expecting.  Did you not see the rivalry results last week and the MANY dogs who won or played within 5 of the ranked favs?  It was around 80% going to dogs in the major rivalry games.  Bedlam is Bedlam, expect a war.  I have no ties to either team, just saying don't get carried away, past results in rivalries are not to be ignored.

echelon1
College Football > Duke at Florida State (12/07/2013) > View Post
FSU would steamroll Ohio St and Auburn???   Hahahaha  They may win but I'd be careful assuming FSU is this 80's Nebraska type wrecking machine.  The ACC is a joke.  Clemson was a solid win and that's it.  The rest are pushovers that at least 15 other teams would go undefeated against.  I'm not saying FSU is not deserving, but realistically they still are not a dominant team beyond the others.  I'd actually still bet on Bama above them in a game.  But even if they are the best, they are not head and shoulders above Auburn and Ohio St.  Their resume is full of weak teams and one big win.  I doubt very seriously they's have run the SEC table.  I'd have bet a fortune they'd have a loss by now in that conference.

That being said, they should steamroll Duke.  And actually that says it all about the ACC...they are playing Duke for the damn title.  Wow.

echelon1
College Football > Texas at Baylor (12/07/2013) > View Post
My advise to anyone breaking this game down is make sure not to just assume Baylor is the beast many thought they were and Texas is the scrub they once were labeled.  Their last 3 games were very comparable with the 2 better opponents playing each team.  Take a look at the results.

Baylor (Tech, OSU, TCU)
Texas (West Va, OSU, Tech)

Total Offense: Baylor 499, Texas 429
Rush Offense: Baylor 199, Texas 195
Pass Offense: Baylor 300, Texas 234
Pts. Scored: Baylor 121, Texas 101
Scoring Avg: Baylor   40, Texas   34

Total Defense: Baylor 486, Texas 392
Rush Defense: Baylor 137, Texas 129
Pass Defense: Baylor 349 ,Texas 263
Pts. Allowed: Baylor 121, Texas   94
Scoring Avg. Baylor   40, Texas   31

Baylor is ahead on offense due to superior passing numbers and slightly higher scoring average, Texas is far ahead on the defensive side of the ball, mostly in pass defense and 9 points per game better in scoring defense.

The most telling stat I see is Baylor is 121-121 in scoring over the last 3 games, and they are getting lit up in the passing game.  Texas is 101-94 in scoring.  The weather will be very cold with a high of 38 and likely wet which should relegate the game towards the ground a little more.  Over the last 3 games the rushing offenses are nearly deadlocked, and Texas has been slightly stingier on the ground.

To me this all adds up to one thing...there is no way I can justify giving up 14 points and siding with Baylor here.  They may very well win the game, and they may win by 10 in the end, but over 2 TDs is highly unlikely with both teams coming with their best effort.  Baylor is not as good as the once appeared (see KSU, OSU, and TCU games), and Texas is not as bad as they have appeared (BYU, Ole Miss, OSU).  Look for a hard fought game between 2 hungry teams.  Texas is the more physical team, Baylor is the faster, finesse squad.  Don't be shocked if this one looks a lot like TCU and Baylor did this pass weekend.  Texas winning outright would shock few people in the know.  IMO, I see Baylor pulling one out by 3-10.  

However, my money has to go large on Texas +14 with what I've seen all year from these teams and their style match-ups in this one.   .  

echelon1
College Football > Texas A&M at Missouri (11/30/2013) > View Post
Mizz doesn't have the pass D?  And A&M is that much better covering the pass?  Let's face it, the Aggies have NO defense.  NONE.  One important thing here is Mizz has a strong run D which means they will have solid success stopping JM scrambles.  That's a serious factor when playing against him.  

Mizz still has a ton to play for including a possible SEC title and BCS bowl berth.  A&M can't outscore a powerful team like Mizz with their invisible defense.  Not to mention the Tigers were thumped by 30 last year by the Ags.  Definite revenge play.

All over Mizz in this one.

echelon1
College Football > Texas Tech at Texas (11/28/2013) > View Post
Tech has a defense tailor made for a sometimes suspect Texas team to roll over.  They simply cannot stop the run.  When Texas is allowed to run they pick people apart and score well on the day.  To shut them down you have to shut down the run and make McCoy beat you in tight coverage.  If you can't play up for fear of getting gashed by the backs or burnt over the head by a sometimes hot McCoy heaving deep fades...you are in trouble.  
'
Texas struggles stopping the run and excels when allowed to run themselves.  Tech will be little threat on the ground and butter in run defense.  They play right to Texas' strengths and away from their weaknesses.  Not to mention, Texas always beats Tech at home, been to tons of those games.  We hate playing there and relish playing them at home.  

Texas to cover.  Love the over too.

echelon1
Pro Football > Dallas at New York (11/24/2013) > View Post
The Giants are on a BOGUS streak.  They played 3 back-up QB's who are terrible...Freeman, Barkley, and Tolzien.  Freeman has started 4 games this year and hasn't completed 50% passing in a single one.  Barkley and Tolzien have never played in a reg season NFL game til this season.  All 3 of the guys above have QB Ratings ranked below 40 out of 48 NFL QB's who have thrown 50 passes or more.  That's right 3 back-ups and 3 piss poor QB's they beat.  Woo hoo!

Who was the 4th QB they beat?  Terrell Pryor in his first year starting.  He has 5 TD's and 10 INT's in the year.  His QB rating is 41st of 48.  This guy is also awful.  Now go look at the 6 games the Giants played a QB that actually wasn't complete and utter garbage...they got blasted by double digits several times and never lost by less than 5 pts. in any of the 6 games.   

I love how excited people are getting over a Giants team that lucked into 3 pathetic back-up QB's in 4 games.  Dallas just got every starter back but LB's Sean Lee and Justin Durant.  Lee is a big loss, but Durant will be replaced by Holloman with no drop-off.  So basically Dallas is now down 1 guy instead of 5 defensive starters in the New Orleans game.  The entire secondary and D-line is finally back intact.  There is no way the Giants will see the sad defense New Orleans had the pleasure of playing.

Bet the Giants all you want, but that win streak is bogus.  They are not a good football team.  Cowboys coming off the bye week, team mostly healthy with bunch of starters returning...all over Dallas here.  Giants are toast.  

echelon1
College Football > Oklahoma State at Texas (11/16/2013) > View Post
Huge Horn fan, this is a bad spot for Texas.  OSU matches up on both sides way better than any team Texas has beaten yet.  Those OU and TCU big wins are looking fairly soft now that we have a good sample size to review.  But my biggest reason for the loss is Texas has now began drinking their own Koolaid again.  The same attitude that got them hammered early.  I didn't notice this widespread change in attitude until right before West Virginia game, and we all saw how soft they played.  Once I saw it I bet on West Va,  

This conclusion come from watching The Longhorn Network all season and observing them before the start, during the losses, and after the rebound.  It shows tons of interviews pf players and coaches, press conferences, and even practice segments.  The all-business, us-against-the-world attitude that lead them to challenge for the conf title is GONE.  Mack went from worn out and disgusted defending himself at every turn to 100% smiley in every interview or piece you see him.  They all talk about Texas like it is back and is a powerhouse again.  

We all know this is fool's gold.  Texas can be real good when they play 100% aggression and focus.  Yet when they show up trying hard but with no urgency, Iowa St. and West Virginia happens.  Oh how the fans would have jumped off the Case McCoy and Mack Brown band wagon if either of those games had a single specific play that didn't pan for the Horns.  But instead they got the "W" by the skin of their teeth and all was forgiven and the team remains all smiley and lackadaisical.  

Sorry my fellow Horns, but a hungry, talented OSU team fighting to stay alive in the conf race is about to serve some humble pie.  Will do Texas some good in my opinion.  They'll learn the hard way that they can only beat good teams with 100% focus and effort.  Expecting the win is death for this team, but willing the win in spite of all else was what got them here.  They must get back to that next week, beat Tech, and then play Baylor for the title in the finale.  Al other teams have 2 losses but Baylor, OSU, and TX.  OSU will lost to Baylor, Texas will beat Tech and stay at 1 loss...and an undefeated Bears team will host Texas for the title.  As for this week, all Cowboys by TD or more.

One last note, OSU is fighting off elimination this week...but also if Texas were to squeak out the win, they are guaranteed a shot at the conference title in Waco regardless of next week's result vs. Tech.  Both teams have huge jackpots riding on the win, but OSU's treasure is linked to survival.

OSU 41, TX 31 

echelon1
College Football > Oklahoma at Baylor (11/07/2013) > View Post
Why is Baylor not in the conversation for a legit MNC game contestant right now?  You know like Bama, Oregon, Florida St, and Ohio St.???  There isn't a soul alive honestly throwing their name in the hat saying they deserve to be 3rd or even 4th in that group.  WHY???   They have beat NO ONE with a pulse.  KSU was the only team that could put up a fight and lost by 10.  Riding all this emotion is going to empty most of your wallets.  Betting is a logical business, not an emotional flavor of the month conviction.  Baylor is not nearly as dominant as you think against real competition, and OU is not nearly as bad as many are saying.  Sure Baylor will win, and possibly by 2 TD's when it's all said and done.  But telling me Baylor is more than 2 TD's better than 7-1 OU...you're betting with heart and emotion as Baylor has given you not one solid game of proof they are at that level.  KSU is the onyl one you can count among those dog flea opponents...and we saw that was no blowout.  You won't cover 15 here...guarantee.

echelon1
Pro Football > Dallas at New Orleans (11/10/2013) > View Post
Nobody is ROLLING Dallas...lol.  Dallas may lose big games, but they won't be rolled.  This is a personal matchup for both teams.  Rob Ryan was fired from Dallas by JJ.  Sean Payton coached at Dallas, and also ripped off JJ's special bottle of wine in New Orleans.  It's not a hatred or anything, it's just a very personal matter between a lot of people within these organizations.  

Claiborne missing at CB will especially hurt Dallas in this one.  Bruce Carter just won his starting job back for Dallas so I expect him to play lights out in coverage.  He lost his job against San Diego and their forcing him into covering fast backs.  Won't blow it again as he is very talented.  Ware is back to pressure Brees and is chomping at the bit to play again.  As fresh as he's been all year.

The storylines are countless for this one. But there is one thing I do know, if you get this Cowboys team's best effort they won't be blown out of any game.  This game, just like Denver, they will bring all they got.  Public is counting them out, many personal ties with the Saints, and a BYE WEEK following this effort.  Count out Dallas before the game starts at your own risk folks.  

Line looks about right to me.  I'd side with Dallas taking the points in a small to medium play.  The much better move is buying a half point or teasing it with the over.  Definitely like the OVER a ton.

echelon1
College Football > Oklahoma at Baylor (11/07/2013) > View Post
Baylor has played no one anywhere near their talent level in skill positions except KSU.  That's why you see the huge margins...the style and talent at skill spots overwhelms awful teams.

With one conf loss already, OU knows they lose and the conf title is out of grasp.  

The whole country is saying Baylor will beat them.  It's funny to me how people are looking at this OU team like an average bunch.  They lost to my Horns in a game they clearly weren't up for because the whole world said they'd win it with ease.  Aside from that hiccup in desire, they have 0 losses.  

You are gonna give me 14.5 points, and a 7-1 OU squad being disrespected by over 2 TD's.  Against a Baylor foe who has beaten no one legit and won by 10 over the only opponent with a pulse???  I'l take it all day long.  Stoops lives to be disrespected like this...it's his best motivational moments. 

Baylor is good and may win the conference, but they are not the juggernaut people think.  They hammer doormats with the best of them.  When tested, it won't even be close to the same mismatch of talent.  OU BIG!

echelon1
Pro Football > Chicago at Green Bay (11/04/2013) > View Post
GB is 8-2 SU ( 9-1 ATS) between them last 10...including 4-0 (3-1 ATS) at home.  Green Bay has won last 6 meetings SU and last 5 ATS.  That's domination folks, especially on their homefield.  

The line may be too rich with GB battling several injuries as well...yet the moneyline in a parlay is gold. 

echelon1
Pro Football > Minnesota at Dallas (11/03/2013) > View Post
I'm not sold on giving 10 with all the key injuries this week...Claiborne, Wilcox, Waters, Ware, etc.  However, if you think Dallas will drop this game at home knowing they very likely could lose short-handed to the Saints next week...that's insanity.  Your money is burnt toast on the Vikings moneyline.

There is no way Dallas limps into their bye at 4-6.  Not a chance.  Minnesota is awful on both sides.  The Dallas offense will route that 33+ ppg. allowed defense.  The question is will the Cowboys allow them to close within 10 points before the final whistle.  Just hard to call with several key defenders out.
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