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Hello,
Looking for advice. Never done this type of pool where you list teams for 10 to 1, 10 points for a win 9 points for a win etc etc I guess Im thinking what is the best strategy? Anyone do these regularly? Obviously you want your superbowl to be the 10 and 9 slot but how about all the other slots? Is it as simple as picking NFC and AFC championships along with SB winner? |
easymoney8474 | 1 |
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How come in tennis if someone gets hurt it's voided but in fighting it counts as a win? Fucking bullshit |
shadowmagic808 | 4 |
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Could've been 7pm match I dunno lol |
ThirdEye4747 | 7 |
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Which match? Lol |
ThirdEye4747 | 7 |
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They stink today |
handycat | 5 |
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Ya I need Sabalenka and the over in Gauff Muchova to close out another one. |
easymoney8474 | 8 |
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My book is +3.5 btw |
easymoney8474 | 8 |
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I think Muchova can win |
easymoney8474 | 8 |
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I need Dodig/ Kraijeck to close out a $50 parlay that pays $1123. I can also cash out now at $475 which I don't play on. I'd really like to make some $ back in time for NFL this weekend. I've thought of hedging Ram Salisbury with Sabalenka and perhaps over in Gauff Muchova but that doesn't guarantee $ back. Any ideas? |
easymoney8474 | 8 |
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Anyone know where to find out whos playing tonight? |
easymoney8474 | 1 |
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Rorys last two tourneys he's had awful 4th rounds |
Mardyball | 21 |
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Dukes in big trouble |
SportsIntuition | 70 |
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They also play in a conference that isn't anywhere near as good. If you had Duke play their schedule where do you think Duke would rank in those categories? Probably 1st? |
SportsIntuition | 70 |
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How to stream? |
jesron1269 | 15 |
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PGA and Tennis
It's very refreshing!! |
ActionMagnet | 23 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
I have written a lot here about my process. BTW - process is the key. Results are secondary to process. If you dont have a process - even a simple one - you are going to fail at this longterm. (For NFL) 1. Usually Monday morning, before I see any lines - I spend 15 minutes going through the games and coming up with "gut" result predictions. Not line predictions. Result predictions.2. Compare gut result predictions to real available lines. Bet any really strong outliers (very selective)3. I have a predictive model that I have developed over 15+ years. It is stats driven, and has 12 "levers" that I can adjust. Things like injuries, uncertainty, and value of certain stats. The stats that are fed to it are all adjusted stats for SOS and game situations - not raw stats. It runs simulations, and gives me standard deviations and predictive results, along with some other key indicators in a dashboard format.4. Take #1 and #3, compare to real available lines and establish a staking strategy for each game.5. Take #1 and #3, establish a timing and where to bet strategy for getting the best line for each game.6. Start taking positions anywhere from Wed to Sunday gametime. Overbuy positions or oversell positions where I think lines will move.7. Sell or buy positions that I took in #6 on speculation.8. Watch all games live with no sound. Watch no pregame. Watch very selective analysts.9. Rewatch all games (shortened version) next week. Repeat every week. Thats basically what I do - every single week of the NFL season. Results come and go. But I know this process works. It has worked for years and years. Every year, I do a post mortem sometime in March or so to see how to tweak the model. I consult people who are way smarter than me in stats and programming, pay them a few bucks - and they make the changes for me.
WOW no job? NO kids? Must be nice
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vanzack | 142 |
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Bengals are -2.5 @ Bet365 |
ActionMagnet | 16 |
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No I wouldn't bet on this stat alone. Do you always make plays based on 5 10 or 15 factors? How many factors must align for you to make a wager? |
vanzack | 305 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474: Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474: Cowboys 1-4 on grass. Any concerns with that? Short answer - no. Long answer.... Any historical series of events can be backtested and found to have trends. The question is - is the correlation or causation? Can you make some kind of logical case, or empirical case that this is causation rather than a random series of data points? Keep in mind - out of the thousands of different categories of data points you could look at - you are choosing one that has an outlier series of results - and attaching meaning to them. So for me - is there logic in saying there is a reason that the Cowboys are 1-4 on grass? What if the Cowboys were 1-4 against red teams this season? Would that mean something? Humans look for patterns in randomness. Thats what we are programmed to do. If you see a pattern in something that you can tie to causation - like turnovers, or yards, or points - then that is something to look at. But if there is a simple correlation that you cant tie to causation - IT IS NOISE. Ignore it. Dont get caught up in the masses who dwell on tea leaves and crystal balls. My favorite example of correlation without causation is the following - teams that kneel on the ball >3 times a game win that game 99% of the time. So why not just kneel 3 times on your first drive of the game? Then you have a 99% chance of winning right? Correlation - not causation. I respect your picks but running on grass as a turf team is not a correlation with playing red teams with all due respect. That statement is outrageous. Good luck with Dak and the boys Explain it to me then. Thats all I am asking. Does it occur that a grass field means a road game for the Cowboys? Maybe it isnt the turf, but a road / home stat?
They are 3-0 on the road on turf....you tell me if it's grass turf or home away? |
vanzack | 305 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by easymoney8474: Cowboys 1-4 on grass. Any concerns with that? Short answer - no. Long answer.... Any historical series of events can be backtested and found to have trends. The question is - is the correlation or causation? Can you make some kind of logical case, or empirical case that this is causation rather than a random series of data points? Keep in mind - out of the thousands of different categories of data points you could look at - you are choosing one that has an outlier series of results - and attaching meaning to them. So for me - is there logic in saying there is a reason that the Cowboys are 1-4 on grass? What if the Cowboys were 1-4 against red teams this season? Would that mean something? Humans look for patterns in randomness. Thats what we are programmed to do. If you see a pattern in something that you can tie to causation - like turnovers, or yards, or points - then that is something to look at. But if there is a simple correlation that you cant tie to causation - IT IS NOISE. Ignore it. Dont get caught up in the masses who dwell on tea leaves and crystal balls. My favorite example of correlation without causation is the following - teams that kneel on the ball >3 times a game win that game 99% of the time. So why not just kneel 3 times on your first drive of the game? Then you have a 99% chance of winning right? Correlation - not causation.
I respect your picks but running on grass as a turf team is not a correlation with playing red teams with all due respect. That statement is outrageous. Good luck with Dak and the boys |
vanzack | 305 |
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