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Seems like the favs are covering lately too.
Early on in week 2 public was on Wash -3 changing to -3.5 over STL with a dog win. Week 3 public was on Set -3 changing to -3.5 over Tenn with a dog win. My gut says GB but not sure yet.
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Blazoo | 21 |
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I'm with you, Hawk......maybe.
Similar line movement happened week 8, Atlanta @ Philly -1 to -3, mild public backing....result was a dog win. I'm worried about SD traveling east.
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Hawk_You | 81 |
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Agreed. On the 49ers.
Line dropped from -9 to -7.5 with about 65% public money on SF. This happened in Week 3 where St Louis was @ Chicago (opened -8.5 dropping to -7 with 57% on Chicago). Result Favorite cover. Week 5 Cleveland @ NY Giants (-10 to -9.5 with 62% on Giants). Result Favorite cover. Plus all the reasons u listed.......49ers is the play. Good luck everyone.
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LeagueCapper | 95 |
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Nice work Magic.
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Magic_Steam | 37 |
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Hi....I have been using thespread.com. Here's todays' link:
I find they update regularly...and it's one spot versus several. Yah, it dumbs it down a bit but I don't have time to research all the houses. |
Magic_Steam | 37 |
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HI...Atlanta looks best to me....and I'm taking them.
Need one for spread survivor.....if anyone has any opinions on that...that would be appreciated.
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CrzyGreek | 22 |
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I'm sorry, that final score was Den 24-Cinn 22(not 20).
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Magic_Steam | 37 |
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Maybe Magic can comment further on Philly.
Yes. Agreed, books
make mistakes or they are trying to trick us. With Philly the line has dropped with less
public on the home favorite certainly indicates that something is up. Maybe waiting until the line has settled
might be best. I have one example from Week 2 last year that pokes a little hole in my system theory…..same exact scenario but the result was a dog win: Last year…Cinn (+6/+3.5……45% on Denver) @ Denver….result was Dog Win (Den 24 – Cinn 20). What was different versus this Philly matchup? Therefore, after the analysis is all said and done maybe we do throw out the trends. We have Philly that can’t score and Detroit that can’t stop anyone (lost to Titans a couple of weeks ago). I am still on Philly. |
Magic_Steam | 37 |
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Sorry...Dallas is not like Seattle...Dallas in on the road. But still on Dallas with these examples:
Wk1 Jax (+4.5/+3.5 w.42% on Jax) @ Min...result Dog Win. Wk 3 Cinn (+3.5/+3 w.42% on Cinn) @ Wash..Dog Win. NE (+3/+2.5 w.50% on NE) @ Balt...Result Dog. Wk4 Minn (+4.5/+4 w.35% on Minn) @ Det...Dog Win. Good Luck.
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Magic_Steam | 37 |
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Hi…like your picks….I tend to follow line movement too….lots of recent results to support your system too: Philly -6 / -4 (36%)…...slight public on the dog...big line move towards dog…result should be Philly. A couple of examples from this year support this…Wk1 Bills @ Jets, Wk2 Den @ Atl …both FAV wins. PHILLY!! Seattle +4.5/+3.5 (38%)…..slight public on the fav…line movement towards fav…result should be Seattle. A few examples also support this…Wk1 Car @ TB (+3/+2.5 w.29%)…Dog Win…Oak @ Miami (+3/+2 w.27%)..Dog Win. Wk 3 Jets @ Miami (+3/+2.5 w.18%)..Dog Win. Phil @ Ari (+4/+3 w.48%)..Dog Win. Pits @ Oak (+4.5/+3.5 w.19%)..Dog Win. GB @ Sea (+4.5/+3…with 19% Sea)…Dog Win. SEATTLE! Dallas…..similar to Seattle above….agree. DALLAS! I am having trouble with the Cleveland game though….thanks
for the information. Too bad u can't post your spreadsheet. |
Magic_Steam | 37 |
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Hhhmmm. Good luck everyone.
Love Dallas -8
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AllNumbers13 | 80 |
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Hey Tig....nice work. I like your thinking on these games. I am aligned on all of those....Just having trouble with the 49ers game.
Watching the math we had a couple of situations this year where we had a Road Team Fav with a line drop towards the Dog.....with the Favorite having large public money....but with mixed results. Week 1 Philly (Road Fav) -9 Opening...dropping to -8 (@ Clev)...with public money on them....Result was Dog win. New England (Road Fav) -6.5...dropping to -5 (@ Tenn)...with public money on them...Result was Fav win. Week 2 Houston (Road) -7.5 ...dropping to -6.5 (@ Jax)...with public...Result was Fav win. There are a couple of other examples of Road Favs hovering around the -3...dropping slightly with public on the Fav...resulting in a Dog Win. So...I imagine 49ers are the choice as it is hovering around the 7 points mark....as it has been money this year. Good luck Everyone. |
tigereon | 15 |
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Good luck tonight. Going -1 on Carolina is probably the right way to go.
I'm not one to follow numbers like your system eludes to but it appears to work most of the time. I had trouble with this game. I'm probably going +2.5 NYG. A somewhat similar situation happened week 1 where San Diego started as a -1 Favorite over Oakland with Oakland becoming a -1 favorite as the game approached. Plus there was minimal public on the side of SD. This resulted in a dog win by 8 Tonight's game is similar with NYG becoming a dog....and a low public split. Watching the numbers indicates that the side might be NYG. Tough game. Injuries, short week plus I only have one example from this year that this occurred to go by. Good luck everyone. |
AllNumbers13 | 80 |
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Hey. Good stuff the last couple weeks.
For Thursdays game , I have seen opening lines of -2.5 NYG to pk.....with -1 on covers right now. For me its difficult to track line movement accurately as I try to follow several sources. For your strategy, have you narrowed down your sources or recommend some that may help opening lines movement up until game time? I am interested in your thought process for Thursdays game. Right now, we have a road favorite, little or no line movement and an indifferent public on sides. Good luck everyone. |
AllNumbers13 | 80 |
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