Member Since:November 2006

Recent Posts

Date Post Entry Posts
Not a great start. 1-2 and down 3U. 

For 2nd series of games, I'm 2U on jax +7, NE -6, buff +11, and Car -3
Tenn+5.5 5U I'm expecting a big day from Mr Hasselbeck and a letdown for a Minnesota team that is not as good as advertised.
Cincy -4 2U Cincy has a tremendously hard ending to its schedule this year so I expect them to be very ready for every must win game. Plus, Miami has suffered two depressing defeats in a row. not a good spot for them.
KC +7 1U gut play. Baltimore can win this game with their eyes closed and that is exactly the type of effort I expect from them while KC needs a win.
Pitt -3 2U Pitt off a bye w  2 time SB champ against a Philly team that has looked awful as bas as possible while still posting a 3-1 record. Philly is not as good on the road and Pitt can not fall to 1-3 in that division.

Good luck, all!
Thanks, Fckshop. I'm probably too high on Luck at this point but I feel like the team will step up and play well for their coach. I also am probably slightly bitter since I've taken GB the last two weeks and been very disappointed. This will probably be a no play for me. I'm still pretty high on Cincy but might take them on the ML so I don't get screwed by a FG win. I'll post final plays an hour or so before games tomorrow. Good luck, sir. View
Redbook1 - I appreciate your comment but I don't agree with your point. Being able to understand what analysis goes behind how Vegas sets the line is as important an element in picking the side as any other. That's at least how I feel.

Who do you like this week?
I hear ya, Futures; however, on the road Philly barely beat one of the worst teams in the league to start the season (last second TD) and got whooped by Zona...who we all saw on Thursday night is a fraud at least on offense. I like Philly's squad but with two weeks to prepare, I think Pitt has too good a game plan and jumps out big early. Good luck, sir. View

Balt @ KC +7: Upset city. I know, right, you gotta be kidding me… but I’m not. The birds looked like they could have cared less in last week’s win (can you say drained), and I feel you’ll see the same thing in this game. KC is a desperate team and this might be Cassell’s last chance to keep the reigns as the Chiefs starting QB. I’m really looking hard at KC ML and I expect big games for Bowe and Charles. Baltimore has been running on a lot of emotion the last couple of weeks and I think it’s going to finally get to them this week. I think a lot of the guys on the Ravens are already looking forward to the bye in week 8.

Chicago -7 @ Jax: This line has had the biggest movement of any since last weekend. Everyone should be on Chicago after watching Cutler rip apart the Boys in their own stadium. Even I believe the hype. Although Jax has had a very difficult time getting to the QB (only 2 sacks all year), the Jaguars won’t need to hit Cutler for him to make bad decisions. With that said, Chicago’s defense should be enough to get it done against a still one-dimensional team. Blaine Gabbert should have stayed at Missouri for another year… or two.

Denver @ NE -6.5: I‘ve read all of the stats about Peyton’s recent history against Brady and NE. I don’t care. NE is a better team and will build on its 4th quarter offensive explosion last week in Buffalo. No QB is the complete package like Tom Brady; as a leader, thrower, decision maker, on-field coach, and competitor. He is it. I’ve enjoyed watching Peyton be back in the NFL but this might be a tough one for him to be watching in the 4th quarter from the sideline. Belicheck is going to bring the heat and I predict NE gets to Manning at least 5 times in this game.

Buff @ SF -10: I took the Jets vs SF last week and I cried the whole 2H. SF plays the type of defense that you would expect from a team which has invested the type of $$ Buffalo. And is there a more enigmatic team than Buffalo. It’s either Dr Jekyl or Hr Hyde to me. You never know who is coming out. If SF gets ahead early, this game could be awful to watch. For me, I’ve always preferred Stanford over Harvard. They seem to have a better pedigree of talent and for that reason and the fact SF def knocks the snot out of its opponents like the Waterboy, I’ll stick with the Cardinal. Jim Harbough will not allow this team to sleep on anyone.

SD @ NO -3.5 (Sunday Night):  Historic game. A team that is 0-4 is favored in week 5.Where can I go review game lines for the past 35+ years because I can’t believe a winless team has ever been a favorite in week 5. But this is a special game. Drew Brees WILL break Johnny Unitas record on Sunday night, and NO’s suspended coaches are being permitted by the NFL to attend this momentous occassion. While I’m pretty confident (as is probably everyone else on here) NO has the worst defense in the NFL, they still have one of the most potent offenses. With emotions running as high as I can remember since Katrina in NO, and playing against a team that loves to fall asleep at random times in the year, I have a strong lean on NO. If the line stays 3.5, I’ll probably buy down the .5 point even though I don’t think it will be needed.

Houston @ NY Jets +10 (Monday Night): No Revis. No Holmes (which might be a blessing with how much of a nuisance he has been in recent years with his opinions). Starting QB controversy since before pre-season whether anyone outside of NY cared or not. Let’s face it, the media loves NY. This Jets team has scored 2 offensive TDs in 7 games including the preseason and not including the blow out of the Bills. That is unreal for a team that has been pretty good in recent years and has retained most of its players and coaches. It seems like Mark Sanchez is spending more time focusing on Eva Longoria than his playbook and preparation but can you blame him. I haven’t mentioned anything about Houston because there is no need to. They have been the real deal all season. But something about this game reminds me of the Sunday night game in week 3 last year when Pitt went into Indy as a double digit favorite and won on a last minute FG.  Houston has 9-2 TO ratio this year but only 2-2 on the road. While I don’t know how it will happen (maybe a few fumbles), I think NY will play better this week and keep it respective.  I just can’t lay double digits on a Monday night game being played in NY. While I would like to say I will avoid this game, my lean is the Jets.


My objective is to make money.  I use a variety of statistical and situational analysis to make my plays. I fully recognize that I, like everyone else here, cannot predict the future. I simply try to provide the best evidence I believe in to make a good decision on a spread or ML. I encourage feedback that counters my opinion more than feedback that agrees with my opinion because it will challenge me to dig deeper and think differently. If you simply want to say I am wrong, you offer nothing of value to me or the others who are trying to beat Vegas. And let’s face it, we all want to and should help each other beat Vegas. With that said I plan to regularly post my leans by Friday with some thoughts and I will post my final plays Sunday morning. Since I have a family and I value spending time with them more than analyzing games, I apologize in advance if I don’t get back to anyone’s post in a timely fashion. I hope I can at least bring a different way to look at and cap games.

Atlanta -4.5 @ Washington: RGIII hysteria, folks. I went to school near DC and have many friends who are die hard skin fans. I empathize with them and hope RGIII continues to be the real deal because that will mean good things for Washington for years to come. This isn’t their game or their year. Matt Ryan is pissed about last year’s playoff loss and is taking it game by game this year.  Washington was hit by the injury bug on defense early and are 31st in pass defense. If the skins can move the chains by pounding it with the rock, they have a shot to keep this game close but after last week’s close call, I believe Ryan does enough early to make it too difficult for the Skins to run and/or comeback and the Falcons win by 7 (I laugh when people say RGIII will be more successful then Andrew Luck)

Philly @ Pitt -3 (-125): How do you bet against Ben Roethlisberger after a bye week when the team he is playing against has won all three of its wins by 1 point each. This is a game I had to give very little thought to. I’ll take the 2 time SB champion off a bye week at home when the spread is only a FG no matter who he plays.

GB @ Indy +7.5: Is something wrong with Aaron Rodgers (i.e. his ego hasn’t gotten too big)? He played well last week but it was against the worst defense in the NFL. While I don’t like the situation surrounding Pagano, I think Indy does enough to get this cover especially with them also coming off a bye and having two weeks to prepare. If GB had a better running game, either via a better RB or via play calling, I would likely lean in their favor, but they don’t. The hook is the difference.

Cleveland +8 @ NY Giants:  Cleveland has not lost by more than 10 once this year. And while it is a small sample size, the Giants are well known for playing to the level of their competition (except for when in PT). I like the rookies of Cleveland to make some plays against an apathetic and injured defense since I just think the Giants think they can sleep through this game and still win. Just like Baltimore last week.  Plus, Cleveland has had 10 days to prepare. I love siding with dogs that are getting at least a TD and have extra time to prepare.

Tenn +6 @ Minn: While I know people will say how can you take Tenn when they’ve lost by over 20 points in three out of the first four, they have played some stiff offensive competition in NE, Houston and @ SD. Ponder has looked very good in limiting his mistakes this year but he’s only been asked to just manage the clock. He might find this being the first time where he will need to be the difference and I just don’t think he is there yet. Minn’s rush def is always good and Hasselbeck will get every opportunity to beat them with the pass. This is a great position for Matt Hasselbeck. If he can lead Tenn to just 20 points, Tenn may just win this game. I’ll take the veteran over the rookie; esp since the is the first game Hasselbeck will know he is starting as he begin preparing this week.

Miami @ Cincy -4: Miami needed the win last week in Zona. That was a brutal loss and it will be interesting to see how they react. I personally don’t think well. Cincy has a tremendously tough end to their schedule and I think they will take care of business in all of these must-win games. While I think Miami is one of the most under-rated teams in the NFL, I just don’t like this position for them.

No TO until one of the last plays of the game. I don't know how anyone could have predicted that the way both of these teams have played this season, and in the past few seasons as well. Especially with the strongly improved Ds. Keep on winning, sir. View

Sir, I never post but I want to give you props. Your write-up was extremely solid regardless of outcome. I had the Rams before I read it and I was very concerned about my pick after reading it. I agree with knOwn, who I have also followed and enjoyed. You are dead on. Why didn't the Cards run it more in the first half? It reminded me a lot of GB @ Seattle when GB threw it 26 times compared to 2 runs in the 1H and Rodgers kept getting T'd up. It isn't hard to call defensive plays when you know your opponent is dropping back every play. Keep your head up and way to own up to it. Forget all the haters. I look forward to following you for the rest of the season and you have inspired me to start writing my own threads. Thanks.

tremendously lopsided called game... refs are trying to help Lakers cover. View

Chicawow is correct....just easing in and not many games have jumped out at me early...I will have a 1.75 unit play today.


GH - If none of the games jumped out at you early, why would you have a 1.75 play today. Just for the juice?

As always, I appreciate your insights.

You the man, GH! I like Minn and Seattle as well... View

GH - I've said it before, and I'll say it everytime I post... You are tremendously appreciated! Your insights on how to pick games are spot on. Thank you for all your hard work because there are clearly value plays in baseball just like in any other market in the world. You seem to have a keen eye on how to identify that value, and you are slowly helping to teach me and many others how to as well. 

I don't need to tell you to ignore the Haters because I know you learned to years ago... Keep being the man and your true fans will never stop appreciating you. THANK YOU!

Love the value out there today, GH... thanks for all your hardwork. We ALL truly appreciate you! BOL. View
Very good question OriginalKilla... I like it. View

People... this is a pretty easy concept. If you take every pick GH calls (team and units), you will have a 95% of being up at the end of the year. Simple.

I'm all about it GH... BOL this year. Let's make some $$.

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