cam2smitty

Member Since:January 2012
Location:

Recent Posts

Date Post Entry

cam2smitty
College Football > I AM MORE EXCITED FOR... > View Post
Florida would annihilate Oklahoma IMO.


cam2smitty
College Football > Guys u know the bama lovers are going to tell u > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by wheaty :
Cam2smitty, i respect your opinion but you are wrong. In the facet that was being discussed, pure talent, Yeldon is head and shoulders above the other three and lacy is second. Don't believe me, ask any draft analysis or nfl scout. They are drooling over Yeldon. As far as stats go, they may be even but if you take into account the amount of time those two were on the bench because of blowouts it hardly levels out. So you should probably check your garbage as well bro.

And as far as neither teams backs not being an edge, you are wrong again sir. It's ALL about the running game. Georgia's run defense is pathetic! Bama will pound the rock and georgia's main goal will be trying to stop that. HUGE EDGE BAMA. On the other side, if Georgia can get a running game going that will be a huge EDGE for them, tho it will be quite a task for them.

So i don't know where your pulling this stuff from but id pick a better pile of crap next time son

Well the two stats I said were in terms of carries so I don't see how the blow out comment is warranted. Obviously if either team has success running the ball that is an edge. My comment was that on paper there doesn't appear to be much of a difference.

I also think you underestimate Georgia's run defense. Georgia's front 7 contains 3 first round draft picks, similar to Alabama's in previous years. Yes they played poorly prior to the Florida game, it was obvious. I think the suspensions played a factor in the first 4 games and their return game vs UT, but they have really turned it around starting with that Florida game. Alabama is as talented across the OL as I've ever seen, but Georgia is also strong upfront. I expect Georgia to use Geathers and John Jenkins at the same time to try to neutralize this strength. Also keep an eye on OLB Jordan Jenkins who has worked his way into the starting lineup. He will be a great one. 

I know I won't be able to convince you of what I'm saying, but I do know it will be a hell of a game.

cam2smitty
College Football > Guys u know the bama lovers are going to tell u > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by wheaty :
Originator you need to learn what makes good football players son. Yeldon is head and shoulders above any Georgia back. And that's only dealing with one of your dumbass comments. Obviously, you don't know much about football, or your a HUGE hater or homer

That's a stretch. It's also not smart to just focus on one back as both teams utilize a balanced two back system. Stats are pretty much equal:

Yeldon/Lacey - 6.3 YPC and 12.2 carries per TD.
Gurley/Marshall - 6.6 YPC and 12.9 carries per TD.

The edge for either team will not be RB play.


cam2smitty
College Football > Guys u know the bama lovers are going to tell u > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by rhslurve6:


This game will come down to AL pass rush.  If AL gets pass rush they will win this game and probably pretty easily.  Pass Rush has been a problem all year and it exposes AL weak secondary.  AL is built to stop the run.  They plug holes upfront which gives the linebackers up front room to roam around and stop the RB for a 1 to 2 yard gain everytime.  However with the D-Line not getting up field AL has to dial up pressure with blitizing.  When the blitz doesn't get there they get torched.  That is why Sabans defense is so complex and tough for new players to grasp.  Defense has a ton a different looks and different blitizes from those looks.  He relies on these blitizes to get to the QB.  So his D-Line can just plug holes to stop the run.  If Murray picks them up then GA will have some success.  But by no means will Marshall or Gurley have a good/decent day.  You will not run on AL defense.


As a Georgia fan, I fully agree with your post.

I also believe the key for Georgia will be getting points on the board early which comes down to what you said about Murray. Bama battled back valiantly against TAMU, but in general Bama isn't built to come from behind. If Georgia struggles to put up points allowing Bama to stick to their gameplan, Bama will eventually pull away.

I don't think either team will be able to run the ball very well so I think it will come down to the quarterbacks. Murray is a flashy QB, but hasn't had success in big games. McCarron isn't flashy, but fills his role extremely well and has had a lot of success on the big stage. Maybe it's the homer in me, but I think Murray is due for his big moment. On the other hand, I could see the pressure of not having that big moment causing him to choke if he tries to force it.

We can say whatever we want before kickoff, but regardless I think this will be a great game to watch.


cam2smitty
College Football > SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME. > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hawgwild32:
Hate to disagree Carter but did you not see GaTech running up and down the field against that Georgia defense ? They just couldn't score. I think 'Bama wins by 20+. Good luck to you though.

Did you see Georgia hold Florida to 75 rush yards on 40 carries (1.9 YPC) ? That's the more relevant comparison since last I checked Alabama doesn't run the flexbone option.

Georgia has held their last 5 opponents to their lowest point total of the season.



cam2smitty
NFL Betting > CAM Sunday Packers @ Giants > View Post
Sorry I have been bad about posting. Been extremely busy, but this pick stands out to me.


Total: 30-23 (+34.05U)


Packers +3 (-130) 4U


I think the Packers put up a big effort here and this is usually the point in the season where the Giants hit rock bottom then bounce back right before the playoffs. I have the Packers winning this game so getting the FG presents good value.


Good luck to all!


cam2smitty
College Football > Do SEC-haters actually believe the retarded things they post? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by middleman820:
  I WISH YOU WOULD QUIT POSTING YOUR I Q

Says the guy from Cleveland.

cam2smitty
College Football > Do SEC-haters actually believe the retarded things they post? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Osirus13:
Shooter- post 31... I'll even give away Yankee titles as I refuse to give any credit to coll football champs. Basketball is different. They decide it on the court

Do you really believe an NCAA Tournament format is feasible for determining a football champion? Football requires much more time due to the physical toll the game takes on the players as well as the time to prepare for highly complex schemes. The new play-in format should be great for the game.

Football is America's pass time. You need to accept this fact instead of walking around bitter about nobody coming to watch you play your non-contact sport in high school. 

cam2smitty
College Football > No conspiracy, but theres NO WAY ND loses to USC ....... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Quantum_Leap:
I believe Georgia will be a DD dog to Alabama, maybe 13 points An impressive win there, and if ND squeeks by SC, have to believe ND will be a +10 dog. I think we'd see a lot of ML wagers on Alabama, but +10 in a NC game has to be more enticing.

I am 100% sure Georgia will not be a DD dog to Bama in the Dome. I'm expecting an opening line between 3.5 and 6.5 which will probably be pushed to 7 by game time. If the line holds below 7 I like Georgia's chances because I think that means sharps will be balancing out the Bama public money with a sub-TD line. 

This Georgia team is playing with a lot of confidence and is hungry to break into the upper echelon of college football(Annual national title consideration). Despite the ranking, Georgia knows the media and public aren't giving them a shot to win anything, and I see them playing tough to avenge the second half collapse against LSU last year. Their defense is well suited to keep this one close, and I think this one boils down to Aaron Murray who has finally gotten the monkey off his back after beating a top 10 team in Florida.

I think the only position Alabama has a clear advantage is on the offensive line, but Saban is a legendary coach so it should make for a great game.

cam2smitty
College Football > Do SEC-haters actually believe the retarded things they post? > View Post
I've come to realize over the years that people who call others inbreds or white trash are mainly those who are insecure about their economic/social standing. This appears to be the case.

cam2smitty
College Football > Do SEC-haters actually believe the retarded things they post? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Osirus13:
Shooter if you think I'm jealous that I'm not an sec fan that's insane. I'll go watch another sport, something that isn't available to those aids infested hicks. They are an embarrassment .

Correction. Kindly go f**k yourself.

cam2smitty
College Football > Do SEC-haters actually believe the retarded things they post? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Osirus13:
Shooter if you think I'm jealous that I'm not an sec fan that's insane. I'll go watch another sport, something that isn't available to those aids infested hicks. They are an embarrassment .

Kindly go darn yourself.

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 10 System Picks*** > View Post


Week: 3-3 (+1.05U)
Total: 33-26 (+35.10U)


Going to scale my bets back next week. Just taking too much action. No play on the MNF game as of now.



cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 10 System Picks*** > View Post
NFL Sunday:

Bengals +3.5 (-110) 2U 
Dolphins -6 (-110) 3U 
Ravens -7 (-120) 4U 
Vikings +2.5 (-110) 4U 


Pending:
Jets +6 (-110) 2U


cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 10 System Picks*** > View Post
billyweather 

88 - I'm sorry I haven't looked at my thread but I don't really mess with totals to be honest but I hope you were on the right side.

Kktdoct - thank you sir 

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 10 System Picks*** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by malkin:
 Jaguars - Man I think Cam can get it done vs Denver
GIANTS -5.5,TENNESSEE+6

Yeah the Jaguars were a stretch haha. Had it valued close to a pick, but clearly I was wrong. I hope Cam can get it done. The game will be on his shoulders because Manning should be able to pick apart the Panthers' secondary.

I would like the Titans, but they are starting Locker and I think they are better with Hasselbeck. Defenses had to respect him, but didn't with Locker causing their run game to struggle. I don't know. I just think there is value on the Dolphins, and I've been on them nearly all year.

GL regardless.


cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 10 System Picks*** > View Post
TNF:
Jaguars +3.5 (-115) 3U 

Freakin jags....



NFL Sunday:

Bengals +3.5 (-110) 2U
Dolphins -6 (-110) 3U
Ravens -7 (-120) 4U
Vikings +2.5 (-110) 4U
Jets +6 (-110) 2U




cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 10 System Picks*** > View Post
Had a good week last week, lets keep the momentum going.

Total: 30-23 (+34.05 U)
Last week: 4-0 (+17 U)


TNF:
Jaguars +3.5 (-115) 3U



cam2smitty
NFL Betting > IN-GAME: Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints > View Post
What is the center doing? Not hard to play defense when the Eagles are throwing the ball every play.

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
Card:

Seahawks -5 (-110) 8U  
Broncos -3 (-120) 2U 
Buccaneers +1.5 (-110) 3U 
Bears -3 (-125) 4U  



Week 9: 4-0 (+17U)

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by rr207:
Good luck this weekend

GL to you as well.


cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
Adding:

Bears -3 (-125) 4U

No play on the Steelers. May take a stab at the Texans if it gets to 9.5 or is cheap to buy it down.


cam2smitty
NFL Betting > Tampa Bay vs. Raiders > View Post
I wouldn't take the over. So far this season they have never outperformed their opponents defense in consecutive weeks. They are also stingy against the pass. Seems like an under play perhaps.

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > Seattle -5 > View Post
Lot's of motivation for the Seahawks to beat up the Vikes. I know it's early in the season, but this one has serious playoff implications regarding wild card spots. The Seahawks have dropped 2 in a row to fall out of the playoff bracket making this basically a must win. The mathematical value isn't much at -5 for the Seahawks though.

Pretty sure the Vikings are 0-3 ATS & SU when Ponder has a lower QBR than his opponent. Russell Wilson has played well at home, throwing no INTs and the Seahawks pass D has held opposing QBs in check especially at home.

I don't know. I agree with you on the surface of the play, but I really like the motivation angle. Seahawks -5 is the largest bet so far for me this season.

Good luck regardless.





cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hockeyjock:
I like you card cam!  Fins game scares me a bit but I love the rest...don;t worry about the square plays.

Seattle is in a great spot here at home...GL with your big play.

Bucs should be favored in this one....freeman is on fire right now!

person will find a way to lose in Atlanta...especially after Atlanta gets off to an early lead and Romo has to start airing it out.

Broncos will have no trouble in cincy.  Their D is too strong for Dalton and Manning is on also on fire right now....gotta ride hot QB's

Chargers will be ready for this one.....their record is really good coming off a bad game..

SD are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.

SD are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

I agree that the Bears had their scare and now they step up against Ten.  Hasselbeck will have a hard time against the Bears D.

GL man

Good call on those ATS stats for the Chargers. I just don't want to lay 8 or 9. Would consider if we can get 6.5 for cheap.

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by cpsn:
you already missed the move, it opened at -3.0

value is pretty much gone imo

gl

I agree with you to an extent. I have this capped at 4.5 so you're right, 3 would have been great. I just think the motivation in this game is too much.

cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
Adding:

Broncos -3 (-120) 2U

Buccaneers +1.5 (-110) 3U



Leans:

Panthers +3.5 *waiting to see if the public pushes this higher.

Bears -3 *if it gets there.

Steelers +3.5 *waiting to see if it goes higher.

Eagles +3.5 *waiting to see if it goes higher.

Cardinals +10.5 *waiting to see if Kolb plays, if he does I will make this play.

Cowboys *if it gets to 6 or 7

- No play on the Dolphins.




cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
cpsn - I did note the opening line, and I would have bet more had I gotten 3. I still believe there is value in 5 simply because this should be a TD+ game.

PTB - Glad you agree mate. 


Leans:

Dolphins -2.5 *should be FG+ IMO. Elite defense, should be able to establish the run. Not much difference between Tannehill and Matt Moore, but I definitely want to know who is going to start.

Falcons -4 *Falcons should win by a TD. Think the Cowboys left a lot out on the field last Sunday, but Romo does play well outside of Jerry World. On the other hand, Matt Ryan is exceptional at home and seems to be on a mission this season.

Buccaneers +1.5 *Yeah they are traveling across the country, but they do have a long week to get their ducks in a row. Good defense and their QB is playing well. Raiders will have a hard time establishing the run. I think TB should be a slight favorite.

Broncos -3 *I don't know if this has something to do with Manning's hand, but this just seems a bit off. Bengals pass defense has been porous, and Manning has been very sharp. Bengals coming off the bye worries me, but I think the Broncos are really hitting their stride. I have the Broncos winning by a TD or more. 

Chargers -7 *What a dumpster fire....7 is still value regardless. KC has allowed the 3rd most passing TDs in the NFL which presents a good spot for the Chargers offense to find their groove at home. I just don't know if I'm comfortable laying my balls on the train tracks yet.

Bears -4 *This line reminds me of the NE/TEN game in week one, extra fishy. The bottom line here is that it will be tough for the Titans to keep up considering they are one of the worst pass defenses in the league. They have played good QBs though, but you can't allow 17 Passing TDs and keep up with a team that has only allowed 6. The fact that they could only manage 13 on Indy raises a red flag. The Bears had their scare last week and I don't see them overlooking the Titans this week.



All square plays which worries me, but I will probably keep my card small this week considering the size of my Seahawks wager.





cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 9 System Picks*** > View Post
Record: 26-23 (+17.05U)
Last Week: 6-4 (+10.80U)

Lots of interesting games on the card this week.


Wanted to lock this in before the lines move:

Seahawks -5 (-110) 8U

- Really nice match-up here. We all saw how Ponder struggled against a good pass defense last Thursday, and now he walks into a damn hornets nest. The Seahawks should play pissed off after allowing the Lions to march down the field in the 4th quarter to score a go ahead TD. This is a huge game for the Seahawks as they are 4-4 after dropping two straight. They are currently 1 game back in the wild card race, but if they win this week they jump into the driver's seat. They know they cannot lose or else the Cardinals, Vikings, and Lions would all own the tiebreaker over them. The Vikings defense was exposed last week by Josh Freeman, and Russell Wilson has played very well at home. I have this capped at 9 points so the combination of laying under 7 and the spot makes this my biggest play of the season thus far.


cam2smitty
NFL Betting > ***Cam NFL Week 8 System Picks*** > View Post
ARI/SF U37.5 (-110) 2U 
Cardinals +7 (-110) 2U 


Week6-4 (+10.8U)

Total: 26-23 (+17.05U)

Foolish to bet on the Cardinals with John Skelton at QB. Also an interesting note is now well the 49ers run against 3-4 defenses. Anyone else notice that the Cards had to shift to a 4-3/5-2 to protect their LBs after they were getting killed upfront in the 1st half? I don't think they are playing any 3-4s the rest of the season besides the Cardinals in garbage week 17.
Forums
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View