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Hope that this helped someone out there. I know there isn't much respect until you have a long record of posted plays. Off to a good start! Cya guys tomorrow.
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Zumbala | 2 |
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Hi guys. New to posting my picks. I just want to offer whatever insight I have for tonights games, as I have gained from reading many other cappers threads. I'm still learning and will hopefully continue to get better.
I know I don't have a posted record but I've been playing 2 games a day since Feb/24th and started the Streak Survivor, which shows 3-1 if that's any consolation (4-0 in the other games that I played, mix of NCAA and NBA) On to tonight's games... Hawks @ Nuggets - u202.0 *UNDER is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 overall *5th and final game of their west coast road trip in 6 days; FATIGUE *Has not scored > 100 points once during this road trip, even against up-tempo offenses/porous defenses of the Warriors & Suns (and Knicks before All-Star break) *Only 3 games since the Nuggets epic trade but summary: game 1 (and 1st game w/o Melo) scored 120 pts which was not surprising and sent the total OVER; game 2 was UNDER against the defensively sound Celtics, and game 3 would have been UNDER if not for OT against the Blazers. Now against a decent Hawks defense? *This is more about the Hawks ineptitude to score during this road trip, I'm sticking with that trend. Last game of an arduous road trip, it's time to check in, check out and go home. REASONS TO FADE: If you think that the Hawks break out of their offensive funk this road trip or let down their decent defense and allow the Nuggets offense (which is still trying to gel together) score at will. Looking for my 2nd game of the day to add (probably NCAA); GL guys.
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Zumbala | 2 |
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Correction: 4/4 teams in the parlay covered!
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TRAIN69 | 95 |
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3/4 teams in your ML covered. Easy to say in hindsight I know.
Train, I appreciate you posting your picks. Do you have a favorite pick on your daily card that maybe you may suggest putting more units on? Like tonight, it seemed from your brief writeup that you really favored the NC ST pick. Thanks as always; appreciate your season-long hard work.
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TRAIN69 | 95 |
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TRAIN69 | 71 |
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Oddly enough (or maybe not), here were the top 3 from tonight on a limited card
Kansas -6.0 76.85% 68-84 loss Hampton -3.0 67.15% 63-74 loss Tenn Tech -4.0 66.45% 59-61 win |
PremierEdge | 41 |
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At least you did well with your NCAA picks! Hope that trend continues.
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CrazyMilkMan | 82 |
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Squeeked by there. Nice call. So many bonehead moves by Kansas like the technical after the dunk and Kansas St going 80% at the stripe tonight when they're 60% for the year.
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Kurn | 113 |
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Did you not watch the Louisville game this past Saturday?
Similar 3 point shooting. It's easy to beat Cuse's defense if you can drop bombs =0
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TRAIN69 | 7 |
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1st quarter not even over yet; lotta hoop left to play
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nba_capper | 28 |
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I went there for a Thursday night football game. Pretty amazing experience although I cannot compare it to the Paris theatre, but it sounds like a similar setup. The catch is in order to reserve your seat you have to spend $50 on food. But you can get these laptops that you can make in-game bets. Aria is imo just as nice as the Mirage but just smaller. Have fun.
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Chaps04 | 7 |
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Understanding Shirley's lines can be a confusing initially, but with some basic math and a little bit of time in Excel everyone should be able to figure out what are (or are not) plays. Here is my feeble attempt at an explanation. All of the teams listed are projected to win. I find it more intuitive place a negative sign in front of the numbers. Open up excel; 1 column for Shirley, 1 column for book lines, 1 column for delta (or difference). A B C = | B - A | Shirley's Book Lines Difference (absolute value) Cincinnati -1.7 -5.0 3.3 Purdue -0.7 +2.5 3.2 Duquesne -1.8 -5.5 3.7 Rider -11.3 -14.0 2.7 St Joe's -6.2 -5.0 1.2 Duke -11.2 -9.0 2.2 So, eliminate any games where the difference isn't at least > 3.0; removing Rider, St Joe's & Duke. Now look at column A and B for the remaining games. What is it really saying? A = Cinci should win by 1.7 points (Shirley) B = Cinci should win by 5.0 points (Books) Are you going to put money on Cinci to win by 5.0 when they're projected to only win by 1.7? NOPE It becomes obvious that you're supposed to bet the dog here. You could also restate the above as... A = St Johns should lose by 1.7 points (Shirley) B = St Johns should lose by 5.0 points (Books) Are you going to put money on St Johns to get 1.7 when they're projected to get 5.0? The answer is YES. Ironically enough, the score of this game was 57-59. Anyhow, this process can be time consuming especially with a big card as the one on Saturday. It's a little difficult to post the plays as lines change throughout the day but this isn't rocket science. I'll admit that I actually missed out on the 3 plays today merely out of laziness of not wanting to do some basic arithmetic (and not really in the mood to gamble). Sucks for me because I missed out on 3 winners. I hope that this clarified the math a little bit. GL everyone.
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shirley-jester | 216 |
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Yulee Hall ftw!
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Yulee | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Teaser78: ... you dont have the offense to come back double digits .... unreal .... I admit I fell for the sucker line ... What were you saying about this game being over?
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Teaser78 | 44 |
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Eh Syracuse was down by 20 at some point in 2H against Louisville. They made a run and ended up losing by 4.
12 minutes left; lotta time.
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Teaser78 | 44 |
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I thought the 3's would cool off the 2nd half, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Cuse hasn't changed their defense either.
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VegasVandal | 13 |
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I know we should let this thread die; but just wanted to mention of interest that's been frequently observed with Kurn's picks.
I didn't get a chance to scope out the 2H lines but it appears all of his 10 unit plays at least won 2H and possibly covered. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. FSU 42 - GT 45 Green Bay 30 - UIC 32 Long Bch St 38 - UC Davis 41
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Kurn | 252 |
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Illinois & St Johns didn't even need the teaser. SU win
Glad to see you're back on track. Hope you start heating up agian.
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Stuckey | 14 |
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CHOO CHOO
Looking forward to your picks tomorrow.
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TRAIN69 | 49 |
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Just wanted to point out this statistic. He's been hitting about 2/3 of his 10 unit picks all year, and didn't miss a single one this past Saturday (5/5) which I couldn't believe.Just due for correction.
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Kurn | 252 |
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