XSixburghX

Member Since:November 2012
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QUOTE Originally Posted by bunny24:
Steelers/Chiefs is going to be boring?.  The snoozefest will be Saturday night.  Pitt/KC will probably be the most exciting and competitive game on the weekend bar none. Don't know what you've been looking at all year.

I was thinking the same thing. This is going to be a great game to watch. Pretty much everyone else in America would agree the NE/HOU Game is the boring one. Other than that I like all the picks.
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I feel you're greatly undervaluing the Steelers in this matchup. You have arguably the best RB in the NFL going against the 26th ranked rush defense as well as possibly the best WR. They match up better at all skill positions except TE. The defense is only giving up 16.6 ppg over the eight game win streak.

KC has lost two of their last four at home, losing to Tampa Bay and Tennessee. The Steelers struggles against bad teams on the road is one thing, but KC doing the same thing at home is easily just as concerning.

I'm not saying it's going to be another blowout, but the Chiefs will have to play a near perfect game to win this.
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Couple of thoughts here guys. One, my initial lean was Pats -16.5, but the more I think about, I'd take the points. I highly doubt they'll get shutout again, so let's assume they sneak in a couple of FG's and a TD or two (who knows, maybe even a garbage back end TD cover). I think they can keep Brady reasonably in check to keep it somewhat close.

I'm a fan, but also a bettor. And I don't understand the logic behind the KC play. Their defense is good, but not great, and Pittsburgh's offense has been on a tear lately. Bell is shredding defenses and it doesn't look god for KC with their 26th ranked rush defense. When the Steelers score 24+, they're 12-1 this season. Under that and it's 0-4. That the magic number for KC, and I just can't see that happening. Added to that the Steelers defense has improved a lot during the win streak.
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I'm about as diehard Steelers as they get. Initially when I saw the opening line I thought Giants +6 all the way. While that may be the case, it's no lock. The Steelers play far better at home, and the o my games they didn't co re at home were New England (minus Ben) and Dallas (best record in the NFL). Our defense is suspect, and will likely give up plenty of passing yards. The loss of Heyward for the season hurts. But Hargrave is filling in nicely and Bud Dupree is back. The Giants may very well cover the 6, or it could also be a complete blowout by the Steelers yet again. When it all comes down to it, this is. It a good game to bet. View
As a Steelers fan, I thought this line would open up with Dallas being about a three point favorite based on how both teams have been trending. That being said, Pittsburgh plays far better at home. 

My big concern here though is injuries. With Heyward-Bey out, other WR's have to start playing better. Will Wheaton play? Ladarius Green? Bud Dupree?
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A troll is a troll View
This looks to be another good week with lots of value in some games. 

Eagles -2

Coming off their fist loss of the season, Philly should be poised to bounce back in Washington. The Redskins have been steadily improving over the past three weeks, but still come into this game out matched. 

Cowboys +4.5

I'll put my money on that OL and run game. Dallas will control the clock and at the very least keep this close if not a SU win.

Steelers -8

At pace each of these two teams are going, this will be a blowout. In the Steelers four wins, only one team they didn't beat by double digits was the Bengals, and that was an 8 point win. I don't buy into the whole "looking ahead" trap game. This will be business as usual.

Bengals/Patriots Over  47

The way the Bengals have been giving up points, it's no stretch to say the Pats will drop around 30 on them at home (Brady's first home game back). I believe the Bengals will be able to supply the rest of the necessary points to cover the total. Whether or not it's enough to cover the spread, I'm not yet quite sure.
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So you're betting your money on chance that they might be looking ahead. That's risky, but BOL.

Steelers -7.5 in another blowout
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Of the Steelers four wins, only one was by less than 10 points (wk 2 vs. Bengals). There's no reason to believe it won't happen again. Miami won't be able to score enough points to stay within 8. They really are terrible on both sides of the ball.

Steelers - 35
Miami -    17
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QUOTE Originally Posted by usikbasterd:
responding to sixburghs comment


You're misreading it friend. I was quoting the OP. I really like Dallas +4
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QUOTE Originally Posted by SwishSwish1234:
QUOTE Originally Posted by porcelainfist:
I would love it if the line got bet to -4.5!Cowboys are 5-0 ats. Packers, I kid you not, are 0-4 ats. These spreads account for the thought that the Packers are infallible and the Cowboys historically efficient rookie qb is undervalued.
Saying all of that, The Cowboys got beat by a pathetic Giants team led by Ben Cuckoo, Beat a jekyll and hyde Redskins team, Then beat the pathetic Bears and the 49ers followed by a Marvin 'Imbecile' Lewis team, I'd wait a bit before we call them a legit side, Rodgers at home is money.


Rodgers & Co. didn't look all that impressive Sunday night. Personally I think there's a lot of value +4
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I'm not sold on the Rams, nor the Bills either for that matter. I'm all over Detroit though. The public is going to rely on what's happened most recently; the Lions debacle against the Bears and the phillys beat down of the Steelers. Added to that they are coming off a bye and at home makes it tempting, but my gut senses a letdown game for the Eagles. View
QUOTE Originally Posted by pappadoc:
***NFL YTD (15-16)***HOUSTON +7MIAMI -3.5NYJ +7DETROIT +3.5SAN DIEGO +4BOLTA


Good luck buddy. Although I'm only on board with Detroit ??
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Patriots -10.5  This could easily jump to -13 by Sunday

Bengals +1  Easily the best team Dallas has faced all year. Bengals should win this game

Vikings -6   That defense should man handle the Texans. Brock will be good for at least one INT. 

The homer in me wants to also take Steelers -7.5. The Jets are reeling while Pittsburgh at home are about as dominate as it gets. The only thing that holds me back is the Steelers history of failing to cover larger spreads.
Thoughts?

Let's make some money! 
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Definitely cannot trust that Raiders defense.  View
Correction Niners +3 View
Went 8-4-1 ATS yesterday, let's notch two more in the books tonight. 

Steelers -2
Niners +2
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I'll keep this simple for now, and go more in depth tomorrow.

Houston -6
Browns +6
Cowboys PK
Lions +3.5
Chargers + 7
Bengals -2.5
Cardinals -6
Steelers -3
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Roethlisberger is playing against Cousins, not Griffin III  View
QUOTE Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:
The team with the much better defense, the better running game, playing at home is catching points, I'm taking that in the playoffs pretty much every time no matter what, especially with Williams out while the Bengals are healthy at RB. McCarron won't need to be Marino to win this game, he has a great team around him on both sides of the ball.
Understand though that the Steelers defense is built around stopping the run, getting sacks and takeaways. AJ has to out duel Big Ben to win this game.
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I don't always agree with TheMyth, but I appreciate that he gives good personal insight and analysis. When we pool together our different view pointsand information; we can help each other increase our odds of making the best choice. 


That being said, I agree with the previous posts. Tampa Bay has been good against the run, and with the struggling pass offense of St Louis, I see the Bucs covering this spread in a low scoring game. 


Tampa Bay +1


Under 41

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The way teams are playing right now, the AFC should be represented by either the Steelers or Patriots. The NFC looks like it's coming down to the Panthers, Cardinals, or Seahawks.

As a Steelers fan, I'd love to see a Super Bowl rematch between the Steelers and Packers, but Green Bay ha a much tough road to Super Bowl 50, but if I had to make a prediction, I will go with Steelers vs. Cardinals version 2.0
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QUOTE Originally Posted by absolutrook:

How is any of this analysis relevant? Based on multiple posts you have already made, the breakdown of the game should be based entirely on which team the Wise Men have decided to fix.  You can't use team logic, motivation, player skills, past performance statistics to determine the outcome of the game -- if none of that really matters right? 

By the way, I am betting Cincinnati because I think they are the better team that will cover the spread.  My decision entirely rests with my analysis of relevant past performance and has nothing to do with outlandish conspiracy theories.  If I cover, great! 

You probably should have reevaluated your analysis. The Steelers playing the best offense than anyone in the NFL by  large margin, and the came into This game winning 11 of the last 13 in Cincinnati. How anyone could bet on the Bengals in this matchup was beyond me. It was Steelers or no bet at all. At the over was the best bet if the day outside of the Seahawks minus the spread.
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I just don't see how the Bengals slow down this Steelers offense, especially considering the injuries in the Cincy backfield. Granted I did believe Dalton will get his share of points, but in the end the Steelers should win this. Their backs are against the wall, so I think they're the hungrier team.


 


Steelers +3


Over 50

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I hope to God you're right about my Steelers, but history tells me they will find a way to let the Colts stay close. The Steelers are not good ATS as a touchdown or more favorite. And this coming from a diehard Steelers fan. 

Colts +7
Over 49

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No need to over think this one. It's GB or no bet at all. Don't be fooled into thinking any of the past four game between these two teams has any bearing on today. Kaepernick looks like garbage and the defense just as bad. Getting smoked in back to back weeks by Pittsburgh and Arizona, and now you think they will magically stop Rodgers & Co.? The line is already moving way too far in favor of SF. No better time to jump on GB. 

Packers -7.5
Over 48.5
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Don't buy into the Patriots hype. 

Steelers +7

Over 51 (Best bet of the week)

I wouldn't be surprised if both teams go over 30 points.
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Yes the Patriots have the number one seems locked up, but the hoodie isn't the type of coach to let his foot off the gas. He just doesn't rest players. It's easy to see why people are leaning towards the Bills, but I'll lay the 5.5. NE end their regular season with a statement. View
Buffalo just can't hang with the big boys. If this is a trap, then I'm taking the bait. This spread should be closer to -7 or -8

Green Bay won't allow a much weaker Bills offense to do what the Falcons did in the second half of Monday night.

This has four units written all over it.

Packers LARGE!  
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GL risking your money on a bad team just because you think this might be a letdown game. Every stat is in favor of the Steelers.  View
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