Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
Usual NFL madness. I would be best to stick with NHL. Lol 1-2 Saturday = -120 With one day of action & some movement I reconsider Sunday. Looking for near even (I did pick up a side bet last night for +25 with a friend) Taking NO -6.5 110/100
|
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
The work may be awesome. The weekend will tell. 4 years ago I posted for the playoffs and it didn't work out, so I spent some more time at the drawing board. I can only hope it's been enough time, as we all should know the law of averages always seek their way back to the mean. I can only hope that the combination of public perception based on their % has a bearing. It appears so, as I based that principle on the fact that the casinos are smarter than me & I think they take public perception into account. |
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
Fair enough question. Just the one game back in 2010 NYJ at Ind 40.0 17-30 Over W Leaving out the games when the public liked under and in those cases there were two games which was a split at 40.0 in 2015 & 2016. |
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
In NHL I take the +1.5. Which means I have to lay some serious juice but I've found it works. |
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
Unders public has sided with in playoffs ..... 2010 Bal at NE 43.5 33-14 Over L 2011 Bal at Pitt 38.0 24-32 Over L 2011 Bal at KC 41.0 30-7 Under W and the highest % of any under picks by the public in my records. 2013 Ind at Bal 47.5 9-24 Under W 2014 Den Vs Sea SB. 47.5 8-43 Over L 2015 Az at Car 37.5 16-27 Over L 2015 Car at Sea 40.0 17-31 Over L 2016 Sea at Min 40.0. 10-9. Under W 2017 Oak at Hou 37.5. 14-27 Over L
3 winners out of 9 including the highest % being right of all this time. Usually how it is, not necessarily for the weekend, but when it's at the top % for years. That of course is all dependent on my research info being correctly inputted by my source, which I believe to be true. |
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
Thanks. I've been working on it for 10 years and I've inputted the data since the 2009 season. Contrarian is not always right, but I've found that when it's not too decisive it isn't good to go against and the same for when it is very decisive. NHL is what I truly like. NFL is mostly a crap shoot where it seems like the dice are loaded against an individual. |
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
4 years I believe has gone by since my last post. I never held much of a long term win % so take it with a grain of salt. I've studied point spreads since 1971 and you'd think I maybe should've learned something, somewhere, sometime. ?? Ten +8.0 110/100 Highest public % of the weekend is on KC and I like to go against the general public quite often, but not as a rule. In The WC round public is 50/50 with their highest % pick doing well the past 2 years in the first two rounds and that is a hard trend for the public to keep up. Ten / KC over 44.5 110/100 Again Public likes the Under. Public has liked Under 9 times since 2010 in the playoffs, getting only 3 correct. Rams -5.5 110/100 Public is 52% on Atlanta and when they're nearly split on a playoff Dog, the outcome is generally the Fav 8 out of 12 when line is 5.5+ points . Dogs that won: 2013 Bal. +8 at NE / 2015 GB +8.5 at Sea / 2012 NYG +8 at GB / 2015 Dall. +5.5 at GB. Note that 3 times it was GB & once NE ... Two premier teams for the betting public usually to be on, but they went against the Favs in those years with bigger points and cashed. Dogs that lost: 2014 NO +9.5 at Sea / 2017 GB +6 at ATL / 2010 Az +7 at NO / 2015 Az +5.5 at Car. / 2011 Sea +10 at Chi / 2014 Ind + 7.5 at NE / 2013 Ind + 7.5 at Bal / 2017 Det +8.5 at Sea . Jax -8.5 110/100 When Public is barely on a playoff Fav as this is running 54% they've been right 12 of 15 games and only losing 1X at 54% or less and that was 2010 Super bowl Ind -4.5 Vs NO. So the Public is a perfect 10-0 @54% or less in playoff games that aren't a SB. Fav's covered -6.0, -13.5, -6.0, -14.0, -7.0, so certainly some larger spreads. Jax & Buf. over 39.5 Iguanas are falling out of the trees in Florida because it's so cold yet public is in the low 60% range with the over. For playoff totals less than 40 points since 2010 there's been 7 overs and 2 unders & another over at exactly 40.0. 2016 KC at Hou 30-0 Under 39.5. And the high wind bitter cold game 2012 Hou at Bal 13-20 under 37.0. It is very hard to keep the scoring down & those two actually had a chance to go over, but didn't make it. My five out of the bag. The ball is shaped oddly, the Refs can throw a flag & injuries change things. Thus the x-factor is so large in the NFL it really doesn't matter what criteria you use, you have to be lucky. Although I like to apply someyhing that could be termed logic. |
Top_Cat | 14 |
|
|
Generally it appears that the team that is most likely to succeed in the Championship game doesn't always prevail.
since 2002 these Champs have gone 3-6-1 vs the spread assuming of course that you agree that the most worthwhile team is or was as follows in the Championship matchups after seeing the Div Round results: 2011 NE won but didn't cover 2010 GB won 2009 NO push 2008 Phil lost 2007 NE lost 2006 Ind won 2005 Den lost 2004 NE won 2003 Phil lost 2002 Phil lost just my notes from observations of how it went down previously, and hindsight doesn't necessarily show how it will be., but based on this 66.7% of the time it wasn't the right way to go. TC
|
Top_Cat | 2 |
|
|
Thanks lancer even tho I don't have many winners when I see something I try to add it if it seems worthwhile.
adding the fact that 6 out of 7 of these also picked Hou over 44 pts and now I see the line is dropping. This is a higher % but a smaller sampling thus ranks as their #2 pick of the wkend and of course generally most prefer to take the over opposed to an under. TC
|
Top_Cat | 3 |
|
|
I've been tracking the square play each wk for 4 yrs now with several car salesmen and mechanics in the DC suburbs and those who put up their ten bucks each wk. This enables me to see where the consensus is and generally these lose about 80% of the time.
the pick this wk is a little surprising as a few of them come closer to the Balt area where they generally support the Ravens however 12 of 17 have picked the Colts plus 7 pts. not a big sampling group but this group is very consistent on being in the majority of the wrong side each wk -- that is over 70% taking the Colts. just thought I'd share something and hopefully it is useful, TC
|
Top_Cat | 3 |
|
|
generally lucky if I hit close to 50% but maybe 2 out of 3 today?
Ok St -17.5 Mich +4.5 Neb +8 good luck in all your choices, TC
|
Top_Cat | 3 |
|
|
OVER 37 STL MIA 1U SEAHAWKS +4.5 TOOK FULL POINT -130 3U UNDER 48.5 PHILLY DET 1U TOOK POINT PLEASE POST ON COVERS IM AT THE LINC
|
nuggetmonster | 22 |
|
|
Don't forget 1974 Maryland with John Lucas, Len Elmore and
Tom McMillen which was the best team to never make the Tourney. They lost the ACC championship 103-100 to NC St and back then only the League Champion winner got in. TC
|
Teaser78 | 25 |
|
|
see post 648 for what I've learned about history lesson, TC
|
nuggetmonster | 1152 |
|
|
Been a follower for a few days now.
I believe history tends to repeat is what I've learned whereas if the dog covers the 1st half and is dog in the 2nd half, then play the dog is the rule, at least that is what I believe I've learned. Good luck to all who need it, TC
|
nuggetmonster | 1152 |
|
|
NFL Playoff record posting sides is 2-2 although I did make a comment last year in the thread that the line showed that I was on the wrong side of one game .
I should have followed more intensely my own methods of line study, but let my head , heart or actual handicapping study persuade me differently on the Pitt / Balt game and suffered a tough loss after a big lead on that one. TC
|
Top_Cat | 2 |
|
|
It is possible to observe the movement or lack of movement to determine the outcome. Not that its 100%, but I sure hope so this particular week. My line of thinking is that the NFL is very difficult to handicap as it appears that one flag, one T/O, one change of momentum can swing the outcome, one bad defensive play, poor clock management or a poor choice by a coach can allow a back door cover. The reality is that with so many variables that cannot be calculated into the equation, how can a thorough examination of teams truly predict the outcome ? The perfect sport for TV that keeps most of us hanging on to the end of the game. I've seen many a great prognosticator make great write-ups that appear to give you the side only to see a completely different result. That is the one thing about the NFL --- that you can make a case very easily and then be surprised later. This is the reason I've gone to studying point spreads years ago to gain an edge in the outcome. It is as good as any method that I've come across and has taken a lot of refining & studying to completely comprehend and use it as a tool. the best edge. The best edge in these games are to be on the sides of : Houston -4 Detroit +10.5 Atlanta +3 As far as Pittsburgh / Denver goes there is no evidence at the moment to persuade a side. My personal lean is Pittsburgh to create an even split of two home teams covering, two Favs covering. Good luck in whichever sides you choose. Stay within your range and don't overload on the weekend. Remember that we have 3 rounds before the SB and the whole idea is to just get an edge in each round. TC |
Top_Cat | 2 |
|
|
It is not that important to the house if the public wins early, what is important is getting it back.
Either thru the second round Div Games or the 4:30 Sunday game. A review of the previous notes....... 2002 Sunday 4:30 NYG +3 covers at San Fran ---- the house most likely didn't get ahead until the SB whereas TB won as a Dog vs Oak but certainly made headway when TB defeated Phil in the NFC Champ 2003 Sunday 4:30 the house cleaned up as Seattle covered at GB and made out with 4 Div Dog winners 2004 Sunday 4:30 the house cleaned up as Min an 8-8 team won 31-17 over GB 2005 Sunday 4:30 Pitt defeats Cinc ( advantage public) but the house recouped in the Div round when Car defeated the Bears on the late Sunday gm & when Pitt won as 10 pt dogs earlier that day however most likely a losing playoffs for the house 2006 Sunday 4:30 NYG at 8-8 cover +6.5 at Phil ( advantage house plus 4 Dogs in the Div round helped the house ) 2007 Sunday 4:30 Sea wins as Fav vs Wash but the line dropped so slight advantage house --then 3 dogs in Div round and 2 dogs in Champ round and NYG winning the SB over NE ---the biggest bunch of Dogs in the playoffs ever. 2008: Sunday 4:30 Phi wins as 3 pt RF at Minn ( advantage public, but 3 of 4 games went under then 3 dogs in the Div round with 3 of those under helped the house for the playoffs, but the public did come out in the late Sun Div round with Pitt winning ) The only advantage to the house came when AZ won the Champ over Phil and covered in the SB vs Pitt ( again the house won back late) 2009: AZ wins as 1 pt HD vs GB ( advantage house) still a rough playoffs for the house as all 4 W/C games go over, 3 Favs in the Div round with 3 unders, 2 Favs in the Championship games but NO upset the Colts in the SB 2010: 4:30 Sunday GB upset Phil ( advantage house) 3 games go Under with 3 Dogs winning Be aware that at some point the house will have it work out for them. TC |
PrimeTimeBoys | 114 |
|
|
The Favs came thru in 2003 , and 2008 when the dogs only won one game going 1-3 plus in 2006 the Dogs went 1-2-1
2003: The public sided with Ind Fav over Denv but the Sat night game saw a lot of action on the Cowboys + 3 pts at Car so even tho the Fav won the advantage was to the house Sun the house cleaned up with Sea covering + 7.5 in a 27-33 loss at GB in the Sun afternoon game Ten won as 1 pt Fav at Balt 20-17 this weekend saw three overs and one under 2008: Ariz went from HD to 1 pt Fav late over Atl ( advantage public) Ind moved from Pick to 1 pt RFav at SD ( advantage house particularly since the game stayed under the 49 pts) Balt won as 3.5 pt Fav over Miam ( advantage public) Phil defeated the Vikings as 3 pt RFav at Minn ( advantage public) The only advantage the house had for the wkend was the Chargers game plus the fact that 3 of 4 games went under. ( Phil 26-14 with a total of 41) 2006: Romo fumbled the snap as the game ended in a tie , but the Seahawks opened 3 pt Fav so the money had been on Dallas ( advantage public to those who got on Dallas early) Ind defeated the Chiefs ( advantage public) NE won over the NYJ ( advantage public) The NYG an 8-8 team covered +6.5 at Phil ( advantage house for the last game of the wkend which is most important for the house to win) 3 unders out of 4 was an advantage to the house also. TC |
PrimeTimeBoys | 114 |
|
|
Continuing with the recent history lesson;
Three times the Dogs won 3 games in the W/C match ups since 2002 having done so in 2002; 2004 and 2010 and according to my records these are the only times in nearly 30 yrs ( note Dogs went 4-0 in W/C round in 1991) 2002 saw the NYJ blow out the Colts who were fairly new to the playoffs having been a historically bad team prior. Jets won as 6.5 pt Favs ( advantage public) then Atl upset GB a major win for the house Sunday saw two of the most exciting games in playoff history in decades with both Dogs covering with the pts. Clev +8 lost by 3 vs Pitt and the 49ers -3 beat the NYG by 1 pt ---the Pitt game being the most important for the house as a lot of NY money covered. Two overs & two unders. 2004 The Rams as an 8-8 team won outright ( advantage house) NYJ defeated the Chargers outright ( advantage house again as two dogs won on Sat) Sunday 2004 saw Ind clean up for the public over Denv but the house gained the recoup with the Vikings upsetting the Packers in the 4:30 time slot---Dogs 3-1 for the wkend and 3 games under gave the house a pretty good wkend. 2010 Seattle took down the Saints ( big advantage for the house) Ind fell to the NYJ ( advantage house ) Balt handled KC ( advantage public) Phil fell to the upstart Pack with the line moving from 2 to 3 pts whereas the house made out as most everyone believed the Fav would win ( advantage house) 3 unders to 1 over TC
|
PrimeTimeBoys | 114 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.