TheGoldenGoose

Member Since:January 2003
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TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Spread Betting Properties by Example > View Post
A good bookie is "connected".  He has places to dump extra money coming in on one side.  This is called "laying off" action.  By doing so he can guarantee himself a vig profit on any contest. 

A bad bookie gets greedy and holds all the action.  This is why you hear of bookies going bust.  They get too greedy and refuse to lay off any action.

Let's use the above example of a -200 favorite and +180 underdog.  Assume the -200 favorite is the Dodgers playing at home against the +180 underdog visiting Phillies.  The bookie in Los Angeles gets swamped with action on his home team Dodgers.  All he needs to do is pick up the phone and call his connection in Philadelphia who is probably swamped with wagers on his home team Phillies.  They decide how much action to lay off to each other and both are protected from a disaster.

Do the math on the above example of the 48% favorite action / 52% underdog action and you'll see how the bookie makes his vig profit no matter who wins the contest.

TheGoldenGoose
College Football > Sooners > View Post
These Fox announcers couldn't possibly get any further up Kansas State butthole. 

MUTE --- ON

TheGoldenGoose
MLB Betting > Astros starting Charlie Morton in game 7 > View Post
Value / Edge Yankees.

Wrong team is favored here.


TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Spread Betting Properties by Example > View Post

Favorite -200
Underdog +180

What if the bookie limited his action on the contest to 48% of the total money coming into him wagering on the Favorite and 52% of the total coming into him wagering on the Underdog?

Is he then guaranteed to make money either way on this contest?







TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Spread Betting Properties by Example > View Post
You're not missing anything.  You understand the concept.  While it's true the bookie can sometimes make no vig on a small ML when the underdog wins in the above example (on Dime Lines), he does make money either way on larger ML lines.

As the odds increase you begin to see a larger gap in the listed odds.  For instance, a baseball game might have the favorite at -200 and the underdog at +180.  Bookie guaranteed to make $20 in this scenario.

A lot of times when contests are expected to be close you might see a small favorite at -115 and the underdog -105.  Bookie is guaranteed to make a vig no matter who wins IF the action is equal on both sides.

You've just learned one of the most important concepts in sports handicapping...

Shop around with three or four books and ALWAYS get your best line!!!






 

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Spread Betting Properties by Example > View Post

Answer to #1 is no.  If you add the odds together you'll usually NOT get zero.  Reason being you must factor in the "vig" or the bookie's profit.  It also depends on the sport you are wagering.  Money Line (ML) is used in sports like Baseball, Hockey, Tennis, etc.  Very rarely do odds on these sports equal "zero" because you'll not have opponents exactly equal.  For example, if you bet the ML in baseball you might see the favorite at -135 and the underdog at +125.  This is commonly referred to as a "Dime" line.  Theoretically the bookie wishes to take equal action on both sides and keep 10% as his profit for booking the action.

Conversely other sports like Basketball and Football use a "Point Spread" (but also offer a ML).  As action progresses towards the start of a contest the spread adjusts to keep the wagering as equal as possible on both sides.  For example the opening spread in a basketball game may be the favorite -3 points.  If the bookie sees too much action coming in on the favorite he will adjust the spread to -4 which SHOULD attract more wagers on the underdog.  In this scenario the +110 & -110 remains constant (as you suggested above). 

If you are wagering on Basketball or Football or any sport that employs a Point Spread you should look for bookies that offer "Reduced Juice".  Instead of paying -110 you can find -108 or -105.  Doesn't sound like much but over the course of a season can separate the Winners from the Losers.

Hope that helps.

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > The Abduction of Women and Children in Flint > View Post

The only thing left unadulterated in your personal armory are utility knives.  Here in CT I always carry my razor sharp 3 3/4" blade Syderco serrated.  Completely legal to carry.  Clips on the inside of my right pocket, catches the lip of my jeans and opens perfectly, and can be into an intruders face in ONE SECOND.  No exaggeration it IS that fast.

 

TheGoldenGoose
Investments > Best penny stock in the OTC is AMFE > View Post

Holding 50K shares at an average buy of .1565 

It's like I'm trapped on a roller coaster ride and there IS NO STOP BUTTON.  Like it or not I am PAST the point of no return.  Failure IS NOT an option!!!

TheGoldenGoose
Politics > Hundreds of workers get fired > View Post


TheGoldenGoose
Investments > Best penny stock in the OTC is AMFE > View Post

Still with you covers brother.  Holding AMFE.

Day Traders beating up this stock daily but it is on the move once again. 


TheGoldenGoose
Investments > Golden goose accept my request please > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by husker_lee:
I was hoping for some advice...you seem to be hitting these stocks right on the head lately 


Request accepted.  I can give you some stock picks that are in my scope.

As for "hitting the stocks right on the head" this is a very bumpy ride lately.  Sell points are every bit as valuable as buy points.

Some of these MJ stocks will not hit their stride until next Spring when the excitement builds over legal Canada Recreational use.  Canadian Prime Minister has pledged to support and sign into law nationwide MJ recreational use in all provinces this coming July 2018.

I liken this to wagering on Future Props.  People absolutely HATE tying up their working capital for such a long period of time.  The Stock Market Explosion in MJ therefore will not happen for approximately six more months IMHO.

Cheers.

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > The Abduction of Women and Children in Flint > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by nature1970:
tasers.... non lethal knock down power... 


And now... ILLEGAL TO USE by the civilian public in many States.



TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > How hard can It be? > View Post

Remember:
"Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"

You cannot go throwing around quotes without the proper credits.

It pizzes off the Gambling Gods.

From the 1986 movie The color of money.

Paul Newman as the character Fast Eddie Felson.

There.  Fixed it for you.





TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > How hard can It be? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by thorpe:
 Stop gambling and work more.


Be careful with that Work Sh!t.

It'll kill you. 

TheGoldenGoose
NHL Betting > Weeble's Wednesday Picks > View Post

Sup weebs?   GL

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Bookies are making a "MINT " > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by packersbackers:

Yup 


PSA seems to be the Rolls Royce of Grading Companies.

Are they?  I mean it just makes sense to buy the best.

Because when you buy the best you are never disappointed.

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Bookies are making a "MINT " > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by packersbackers:
All my rookie cards are mint...10/10


Professionally Graded?  PSA's?

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Local bookie won't pay > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by VanDutch:
https://youtu.be/ZomwVcGt0LE


CLASSIC!!! 

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > What Event Are the Liberals Planning? > View Post

Obama was no angel when it came to corporate welfare.  How soon we forget the GM bailout???  Maybe GM, it's employees, the affiliate suppliers, the entire structure was indeed "too big to fail" but DON'T tell me with a straight face that the taxpayers didn't get sukkered on that deal.

The Corporate Fukks™ are somebody I NEVER try to patronize.  Tonight I made the exception by taking the family out to Chili's.  I am a sukker for their frozen top-shelf Margaritas with a Grand Mariner kicker.  99% of the time I patronize a half dozen local restaurants run by local small businessmen but tonight was an exception.  After four margaritas (Wifey did the driving) and a couple more here at home I have have it for the evening.  Cheers.  To be continued.  



TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > What Event Are the Liberals Planning? > View Post
"Explain..."

Let's start with these three...

Number One, turn OFF both Fox News and CNN.  Turn ALL that sh!t off and live a better life.  These ARE NOT "News" channels.  They all have an agenda that includes pushing your buttons to drive ratings upwards and increase advertising revenue.  Period.

Number Two, the Corporate Fukks™ also have an agenda.  It's called "Divide and Conquer".  Pit the Management Conservatives against the Worker Liberals.  Put a carrot on a stick and make the Management Minions chase it down to try and keep their living status while offering the Worker Minions less and less to keep them slaving to maintain their living status.  BOTH LOSE in the long run. 

Number three, neither the Corporate Fukks™ or the Workers will listen to DT.  Why should they?  DT is a master of the deceptive deal.  Be it or Trump University or reneging on the Iranians.  It's all BS designed to gain position.  For DT and DT only.  DT is a scam artist, a cheapskate, a womanizer (just like Clinton and Weinstein) and a bully.

TheGoldenGoose
NFL Betting > Worst day ever > View Post

I'm ashamed to admit it but I had the Falcons ML tied together with a bunch of ML Parlays today.  Lost about a third of my Dime Bankroll.  I know, I know.  NO PARLAYS.  Straight Wager Reduced Juice is the ONLY way to travel.  Just couldn't decide on Sides, like a stupid little kunt, and got the azz-kicking I deserved.  Sigh.

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > What Event Are the Liberals Planning? > View Post
This is not a "Conservative" vs "Liberal" issue.

It's a "Corporate Fukks™" issue.

It's really very simple.  You can't expect to ship all the Middle Class Jobs overseas, allowing the complete assassination of the Middle Class in this country, and NOT experience a backlash from the working class.  The Corporate Fukks™ have increased the CEO to WORKER salary ratio from 30-1 in the 1970's to 600-1 today.

How do they expect to keep the masses from climbing the gated walls of their homes and dragging their lifeless bodies through the streets???

It's coming.  It might take a while.  But it IS coming.

REVOLUTION!!!!!!!!!! 

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Contacting the exes, the real ones. > View Post

Hawk:  but, but, but, nobody knows what it means.

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Kneeling > View Post

This is the GD Forum.  In the General Discussion Forum you can talk about any GD thing you wish. 

Interesting take on this subject by the OP.  One would think that after seeing a few of his buddies blown up in rice patties that he would have more respect for our Flag.  And you can talk about "the Legal Meaning" all day long until the cows come home.  It means nothing.  Courts will AND DO strip your First Amendment Rights in a New York Second these days. 

YOU made the decision to serve in Vietnam.  Nobody else.  Plenty of people burnt their Draft Cards and fled to the safety of Canada.  It was very easy in the 60's & 70's.  No passports needed for Canada crossings.  Answer a couple of simple questions and Canadians welcomed our money with open arms.

The only problem was re-entering the USA.  Custom Agents expected you to pay taxes on everything you were hauling back.  Even that could be easy avoided by sticking to dirt logging or dirt farm roads off the beaten path. He!!, I drove home from Canada several times so wasted still don't know how I got where I was going.





TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Contacting the exes, the real ones. > View Post

Search... Ring me up... 8609781897.

Lost your number in all my confusion. 

TheGoldenGoose
MLB Betting > Why take Kershaw out??? > View Post
Oh, and BTW, Roberts is LEGENDARY up here in Red Sox Nation.

Don't you EVER dis Roberts.

He lit the match.

Which caught the fire.

That incinerated the 2004 Yankees.

And in turn propelled the Red Sox past the Cardinals.

Infamously obliterating an 86 year drought.

"Ground ball, stabbed by Folk, over to 1st base, and the moment Red Sox fans have long yearned, THEY ARE THE WORLD CHAMPIONS IN 2004".

TheGoldenGoose
MLB Betting > Why take Kershaw out??? > View Post

Why is Turner always limping around like a wounded moonshiner?

TheGoldenGoose
MLB Betting > Why take Kershaw out??? > View Post

Because nobody has pitched.

Everybody available.

TheGoldenGoose
General Discussion > Hurricane Ophelia > View Post

Anybody ever notice all this CRAP originates in AFRICA.

Coincidence?





TheGoldenGoose
MLB Betting > This Astros stadium is a disgrace to Baseball > View Post

C'mon Covers!?!?!?!

person = W-H-O-R-E.

Is that better?
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