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Quote Originally Posted by Gumbajohnny: If you are going to take this serious and try and make some $$$ my following points to you. 1) Never Never be emotional be rational.. 2) Learn how to manage your bank roll. Try not to spend your profits on splurges deal with it like a business for the ups and downs. 3) As another poster said a season does not cut it you need at least 3 seasons for it to really average out.. 4)Be your own man,make your own picks. 5)Never let it control you you must control it.. 6) Don't gamble it if you can't afford to lose it.[this should be #1] 7) Watch the games. Ive can't tell you how many times Ive watched the games and then listen to ESPN and ask myself did they just watch the same game.. 8) A nice scotch with a cigar is always nice.. Good Luck Hahahaha yeah I've had to stop betting on Da Bears because of the emotional part...better cappers than me can probably separate that but I haven't figured it out yet. Thanks for the advice!
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TheDegenator | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85: Also i wouldnt say their is anything wrong with accumulating your bets. If you wanna risk your whole bankroll on a play you're confident in you can it's your money. This will all happen in time, right now you're not able to determine a strong play because you have no idea what your system for picking games is. I'm an in depth stats guy. So all my plays are based off statistical information compiled by various sources. If i find an edge i exploit it, its as simple as that. I also like to exploit public overreaction - if something happened the week before that everyone saw and now this week they are automatically fading/riding that team no matter the circumstance I look to fade that perception. Makes sense...have a long way to go but going to start trying to get a lot more in depth. Thanks again for all the advice!
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TheDegenator | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by thorpe: You need 3 seasons of 100 picks before you prove yourself. Anyone can go 13-3, and anyone can go 60-40 for a year. But if you can win 60% 3 out of 4 years then you are the "man" . Your problem is that your bet size is all over the place. You could hit 60% and still lose if you lose your big bets. Yeah, bankroll management has not been my strong suit, and I think I've learned that lesson, even if it was the hard way. Settling in for the grind now. Thanks!
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TheDegenator | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85: You're a public bettor, the public cleaned up the first two weeks, overreacted to what they saw and now they are all down money. Stop overreacting to what happened last week, each week is a new opportunity for a team to show why they deserve a win just as much as another team. Each week provides its own circumstances and its own unique situations. Just cause a team forces 3 turnovers and wins by 21 1 week does not mean they will keep covering. You had OSU on the road at NW as a TD fav after coming off a tough game against wisky and having not faced anyone worthwhile on the road. Although you got the cover you should have never made that bet in the first place. We're all guilty of overreacting at certain situations its realizing youre overreacting and stopping yourself and actually analyzing data given to you that separates winners and losers. Dude. Thank you. Seriously. It'll probably take me a couple of weeks to figure this out and fix whatever system I have going on but this all makes sense.
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TheDegenator | 14 |
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Yeah, that's a huge mistake I've made...thought I should keep increasing the scale of my bets as I made money, and obviously that backfired incredibly fast. Bankroll management I get an F. Thanks for the advice!
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TheDegenator | 14 |
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Hey guys,
I'm fairly new to this - started last year, didn't do great, but started this year off on fire. Went 13-3 NCAA first two weeks, won money 4 out of the first 5 weeks, was super cocky, thought I had a part-time job, etc. The last two weeks have been awful. Even my wins haven't been impressive...got out of my mind lucky with the Mizzou cover over Arky St, and the OSU/NW game. Even had a woeful NFL day last Sunday with Cincy and the Saints stabbing me in the back with under a minute. Started the year with a $20, made it all the way up to $510, and now I'm back down to -40. Do you guys that are really good at this go through slides like this or am I just terrible?
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TheDegenator | 14 |
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WV seems to have been a completely different team at home...any insights as to why? I know Okie St isn't the same team this year but still at least decent.
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Ducks_Homer | 13 |
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Love the WV pick...completely different team at home.
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HammersSpreads | 21 |
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Got Miami -8.5 and Arizona (NFL) +6.5, 2-team parlay.
Yeah, ranked teams on Thursday night on the road don't cover. I'm a noob but just can't see an angle where UNC has a chance. Don't think it'll be a blowout, for sure, but think Miami wins this game by 10-14. Terrible UNC team got blown out at home by ECU? Uggh. Plus Miami coming off of a bye? Seattle isn't the same team on the road. They won by 5 at Carolina and lost at Indy. Arizona isn't a good team, but that defense is legit, and at home they've beaten the Lions and shut down the Panthers. Andre Ellington is a pretty solid rookie RB coming into his own, and I think this ends up a 17-13 kind of game. Been too lazy to post the last couple weeks, but I'll just admit straight up to sucking. Had 7 2-team parlays in last Saturday and only hit the Nebraska/Mizzou one. Then Sunday crushed my spirit with the Saints and Bengals. In essence, probably better to fade me.
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TheDegenator | 2 |
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That's the problem...Canes may very well be overrated but UNC is an absolutely terrible football team. Blown out at home by East Carolina?
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wingerzzz | 23 |
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Guess it's all just a contest to see who gets destroyed by Denver in the Super Bowl anyway...
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JakeLake720 | 17 |
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Guess it's all just a contest to see who gets destroyed by Denver in the Super Bowl anyway...
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JakeLake720 | 17 |
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I'm a Bears fan and that was a pathetic showing. 3 second half points against the winless Giants IN CHICAGO??? 20 total offensive points (not counting the pick 6)??? Just awful. Cutler was sharp at times but too many drives stalled out. Never bet on your team lol
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Pryceless763 | 50 |
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Yeah, just threw it over his head - and Myers jumped a few feet in the air to try to help him out too. Bears fan here too...really not happy about the offense only putting up 20 points (and only 3 in the second half) against that defense...no way this shoulda been a close game if the Bears are actually going to contend this year.
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JakeLake720 | 17 |
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Small sample size but BC's only road game was a 35-7 loss to USC? Almost enough in that fact itself to make me take Clemson...
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Covers | 12 |
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SOMEONE DRIVE DOWN THERE AND HIT THAT LEFT TACKLE WITH A CAR
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HookEmHorns22 | 433 |
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Are you fukking kidding me? Is SD even a fukking pro team?
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HookEmHorns22 | 433 |
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THEEEEEE OVERRRRRR
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HookEmHorns22 | 433 |
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Stop running the dam ball SD!
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HookEmHorns22 | 433 |
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Momentum all with the Chargers now...
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HookEmHorns22 | 433 |
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