TD21

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TD21
College Football > Blowoutgm's Week 8 picks 66-27-1 YTD 6-6 last week > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by blowoutgm:
Syracuse +17.5 - I think this is a bad spot for Miami and I feel the Syracuse offense can keep it within the numbers- the Miami pass rush is a concern but the one team they played with a passing game (Toledo)- threw for 350 yds against them- 

Arizone -2.5   QB- Tate for Arizona- the best QB in the nation when it comes to running the ball- he will get his yards vs. this soft Cal defense- Cal gave up over 300 yds rushing to an inferior Oregon team and I see the same happening here

Oklahoma St. -7   I see the Texas defense getting burned in this game and they don't have the offense to keep up- they are way more physical than Okie St. but I think that passing game will be too much for Texas to handle. Texas also has some players that have some nagging injuries and appear a bit beat up- the main worry in this game is the Texas running game if they get up early- if they fall behind early then it will be over

Florida St. -7 - I believe the Louisville team is full of mental midgets- how do you give up 40+ points against a terrible Boston College offense? The Florida St. defense will get after Jackson and it seems once this team gets down they give up- just a terrible mental make up by the Cards- 

Ole Piss +7 - I love the kid throwing the ball for Ole Miss- I am still not sold on this LSU team and they have not played a team that can toss the rock like Ole Miss with the exception of Syracuse and the Orange put up close to 300 yds if I remember correctly but were hampered by early turnovers- 

Washington St. -9.5     Falk will not turn the ball over like he did last week- Colorado has no pass rush and their run defense is putrid- I love the matchup of the Cougar offense vs the Buffalo defense

one unit on each!

Good luck everyone!!

I hope to add a few tomorrow!





On Ok State & FSU as well.  Ole Miss & WSU are leans for me.  

TD21
College Football > Blowoutgm's Week 8 picks 66-27-1 YTD 6-6 last week > View Post
blowoutgm, best of luck this week!  

TD21
College Football > TD Week 8 > View Post
One more small play:

7 pt teaser:  NIU -6.5 & NIU/BGSU Under 61.5  (0.25u)

TD21
College Football > WEEK 8 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

thanks TD hope  all is well..................

Other than getting my @ss kicked last week and losing some close calls to make it worse, all is well.  Life is pretty good.  Similar to you, I shut the MSU / Minny game off mid 4th qtr.  Didn't see that L coming.

Hope you're feeling better now.  Good luck this week.  

TD21
College Football > TD Week 8 > View Post
Thanks everyone!  

I've been really limited on extra time this week with kids soccer makeup games and preparing for family for to come in town this weekend (I should just post my sister's ATS picks ; she does pretty well in their office pool where you're forced to pick every game on the list).  Will be watching some games with her and the rest of the family this weekend for old time's sake - should be good! 

....I had intended to add more to the card since Sunday.  Don't see much I like.

Good luck to everyone!  Week 8 already -- flies by every year.  Take care guys, enjoy the games.


TD21
College Football > TD Week 8 > View Post

Added:  Kent State / Ohio U.  Under 46 (1u)


TD21
College Football > Week 8 > View Post
Great work!  

GL this week Tideman


TD21
College Football > TD Week 8 > View Post
Some updates & GOY preseason line in play this week.

Notre Dame -3.5  (2.5u)
Tulsa -7  (1u)
Florida State -7  (0.75)
Oklahoma State -5.5  (0.75u)
BYU -7  (0.75)
Added:  Penn State -9.5  hook (0.75u)
Added:  Eastern Michigan +4  (0.5u)

GOY preseason line in play this week:  Missouri -16.5 (0.5u)


FCS:
Western Illinois / North Dakota State Under 58.5 & Under 57.5 (1u overall)
*remaining plays smaller.
James Madison / William & Mary Under 50.5 & Under 49
Harvard +5.5
Richmond / Delaware Under 45.5





TD21
College Football > TD Week 8 > View Post
YTD breakdown update thru Week 7:

YTD record:  152 - 95 - 4
YTD units:  +33.8

YTD record breakdown by unit:
>=1u:  39 - 25 - 1
0.75u:  17 - 14 - 1
0.4u - 0.6u:  58 - 30 - 1
0.2u - 0.3u:  38 - 26-1

YTD breakdown by FBS / FCS:
*each breakdown includes all sides & totals.

FBS vs. FBS:  92 - 68 - 2
FBS vs. FCS:  29 - 6 - 1
FCS vs. FCS:  31 - 21 - 1

TD21
College Football > TD Week 8 > View Post
Betonline locked in:

*Took the Favs I like early.... that's about it for now.

Notre Dame -3.5  (2.5u)
Tulsa -7  (1u)
Florida State -7  (0.75)
Oklahoma State -5.5  (0.75u)
BYU -7  (0.75)


TD21
College Football > WEEK 8 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1969USC:
ND  -6

They should win by 3 TD's.

   Like Notre Dame as well.

BA, agree on several leans.  As always, thanks for posting.

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
This week was a good example of how thin the line can be in winning/losing in this business.

I had a bad week across the board.

Teams with a big lead that couldn't hold on:

Auburn up 20-0, let's them back in the game & loses outright.  Had a great # at -4.  Didn't matter.

Michigan State up 30-13, gives up two meaningless TDs in the last 5 & half minutes of the game.  30-27 final.  -3.5 loses by 0.5 points.

Even FCS Penn play same thing.  Up 14 points to start the 4th qtr, lose by 3 points.  +3 pushes and +2 & PK lose.

Still think I was on the right side of that Michigan Indiana Total.  30 points through 56 minutes.  Under 46 loses by 1 point in Overtime.

After some further review from Q&A during the week, decided I would take West Virginia after all.  Also leaned Purdue and end up taking them.  Had I done full game ATS, 2-0.  Instead 0-2 on 1st half & 1st qtr plays respectively.  Outsmarted myself there.  A real mind fck for sure.  Pisses me off.

Colorado locked in before the Oregon State coaching change, just rode it out.  Coulda/shoulda bought out maybe.  

Took the wrong MAC team to rebound from a week 6 loss.  Ohio U. would have worked out after all.  And what's going on with Miami (OH)...  losing straight up to BGSU and Kent State back-to-back is brutal.

Alright, venting complete.  Gotta move on to week 8.

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Week 7 Recap:  11 - 20 -1, -6.2 units
YTD:  152 - 95 - 4

>= 1 unit plays:  1 - 3
Mississippi State -18.5  (1.25u)  WIN
Vanderbilt +4.5  (1u)  LOSS
Michigan State -3.5 (1u)  LOSS
Miami (OH)  -11.5  (1u)  LOSS

0.75 unit plays:  2 - 4
Auburn -4  LOSS
Central Florida -28  WIN
Eastern Michigan +4.5  WIN
Ohio U. / Bowling Green Under 60  LOSS
Michigan / Indiana Under 46  LOSS
San Diego State -6.5  LOSS

0.5 unit plays  0 - 4
Houston -10  LOSS
Colorado -13  LOSS
Pitt +10  (0.25u)  & Pitt +11.5 (0.25u)  LOSS
Michigan State / Minnesota Under 41  LOSS

0.25 unit plays:  4 - 2
Syracuse +14.5 1st half WIN
Texas A&M +4.5  WIN
Duke +8  WIN
New Mexico State / Georgia Southern Over 60  WIN
West Virginia -2 1st half  LOSS
Purdue +4.5 1st qtr  LOSS

FCS:  4 - 7 - 1
Richmond / Towson Under 57, Under 54, & Under 51  WIN
Penn +3  PUSH
Penn  +2 & PK  LOSS
Villanova / JMU Under 49.5 & Under 46.5  WIN
South Dakota State -9.5  LOSS
Dayton -3.5  LOSS
Gardner-Webb +4  LOSS
Rhode Island / Maine Under 43  LOSS
Missouri State +29.5  WIN
North Dakota State / Youngstown State Under 43  LOSS
Youngstown State +8.5  WIN
Illinois State -3  LOSS

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Pebbles, I'm a little numb to having a reasonable thought at the moment after the way yesterday played out.

This was a weather play yesterday.  Still overcast and ugly outside here in west Michigan, just not near as severe as yesterday.

I'm staying away.  Need to regroup.

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Pecador:
TD,   You get the great #'s on the FCS and then I come in and get winners after you move lines.   Against you on a few FCS but lines  aren't the same at all. This happens a lot.  You soften the lines up and I come in for the carrion.

I like NDSU -7
NC Cent. PK
Campbell +8   I guess that's all the we don't agree games.

With you on Penn. -1.5

Haven't checked these games lately.  Some may be done.

Watching several FBS games.  Especially Tx./ Okla.

Good Luck,      Doc

Doc, I'm just glad you're smart enough to make your own plays.  Way to use the line value.  

Been a rough day for me.  Hope you're doing well.

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Added MSU / Minn Under 41 (0.5u)

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
56+ minutes into the Michigan / Indiana game and the score is 20-10.  Overtime loss on Under 46 is a real bummer.  Thought it might be a good day based on the start; now not so sure.


TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dudebrent1:

TD thanks for all the hard work and I really like following your threads.


 


I do have a quick question for you or anyone else for that matter on this thread. How do you feel about WVU -3 vs. TT???


 


They got robbed by refs @ TCU so I don’t see why this isn’t an easy cover.


Congrats on the West Virginia cover.  I ended up taking West Virginia 1st half instead of full game.  

TD21
College Football > Army E.Michigan Game > View Post
Screwing you out of an opportunity for an OT cover.  Definitely not a guarantee in OT, in fact, not likely at the line we had here.

EMU was the play.

TD21
College Football > $$$*** NCAAF Week 7 ***$$$ > View Post

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Added:  Akron / Western Michigan Under 28.5 1st half  (0.25u)

We're about to get hit by a lot of rain this afternoon in the area.  Thunder/lightning may delay this game at some point (weather less of a factor than I'd like to believe if it's delayed??? -- will keep it small).

TD21
College Football > Sac's Week 7 Plays > View Post
under, good luck today!  

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Tough to find your own thread.... covers can't get that aspect of the new format fixed soon enough.

Added:  Purdue +4.5 1st Quarter (0.25u)

TD21
College Football > QB's plays week 7 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by steponaduck:
Bull shhhit. You got cleaned out a few weeks ago and then disappeared. 

65%. 

He did go 7-4 a few weeks ago...  but then posted 8-3.  Which was slightly amusing.

Not sure about since then.

I think his 3 plays this week look alright.

He has a job, goes to work... recall seeing that somewhere.  Maybe there's hope for this guy after all.

Good luck this week QB.  

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Not a bad time to mention.... 

Pending Futures:

Minnesota Regular Season Wins Under 7.5 -140  (risked 2.8u to win 2u)

National Championship Futures:
Alabama +335 (risking 0.5u) & Alabama +415 (risking 0.2u) -- Combined risk of 0.7u to win 2.51u
Ohio State +775  (risking 0.5u to win 3.88u)
Washington +6600  (risking 0.15u to win 9.9u)
Auburn +4000  (risking 0.1 to win 4.0u)

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
islandbody

ProPickers

sportschat

Thanks guys!  Good luck to you this weekend.  

TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
Week 7 Consolidated Card:

>= 1 unit plays:
Mississippi State -18.5  (1.25u)
Vanderbilt +4.5  (1u)
Michigan State -3.5 (1u)
Miami (OH)  -11.5  (1u)

0.75 unit plays
Auburn -4 
Central Florida -28 
Eastern Michigan +4.5
Ohio U. / Bowling Green Under 60
Michigan / Indiana Under 46
San Diego State -6.5

0.5 unit plays
Houston -10
Colorado -13
Pitt +10  (0.25u)  & Pitt +11.5 (0.25u)

0.25 unit plays
Syracuse +14.5 1st half WIN
Texas A&M +4.5
Duke +8
New Mexico State / Georgia Southern Over 60
West Virginia -2 1st half




TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
For the record, FCS plays locked in:

If I get back on track this week in this department, I'll post some ideas next Monday or so.

I would NOT tail on a bad line value play.  FCS lines are getting tougher every week.

Penn +3, +2 & PK
Richmond / Towson Under 57, Under 54, & Under 51
Villanova / JMU Under 49.5 & Under 46.5
South Dakota State -9.5
Dayton -3.5
Gardner-Webb +4
Rhode Island / Maine Under 43
Missouri State +29.5
North Dakota State / Youngstown State Under 43
Youngstown State +8.5
Illinois State -3



TD21
College Football > TD Week 7 > View Post
YTD breakdown update thru Week 6:

YTD record:  141 - 75 - 3
YTD units:  +40.0

YTD record breakdown by unit:
>=1u:  38 - 22 - 1
0.75u:  15 - 10 - 1
0.4u - 0.5u:  56 - 25 - 1
0.2u - 0.3u:  32 - 18

YTD breakdown by FBS / FCS:
*each breakdown includes all sides & totals.

FBS vs. FBS:  85 - 55 -2
FBS vs. FCS:  29 - 6 - 1
FCS vs. FCS:  27 -14

TD21
College Football > TD Week 6 > View Post
Long overdue week 6 recap

Week 6 recap:  13 - 12,  -0.48u
*12-9 FBS and *1-3 FCS  (yuck)

YTD:  141 - 75, +40.0 units

Miami (Ohio) -14  (2u)  LOSS
Michigan State +11.5  (0.75u) & +14 (hook) (0.25u) & +13 (0.5u) -- 1.5u overall  WIN
Idaho -3  (1u)  LOSS
Appalachian State -10 (0.75u)  WIN
Duke PK  (0.75u)  LOSS
Iowa State +28 (0.75u)  WIN
Eastern Michigan +14 (hook)  (0.5u) &  +14 -110 (0.25u)  -- 0.75u overall  WIN
San Diego State -9  (0.5u)  WIN
Miami / Florida State Under 48.5  (0.5u)  WIN
North Carolina State +4  +100 (0.5u)  WIN
Kansas State / Texas Under 49.5  (0.5u)  LOSS
Air Force / Navy Under 52.5  (0.5u)  LOSS
Michigan State +7 1st half (0.5u)  WIN
Purdue -3  -115 (0.5u)  WIN
Miami (OH) -6.5 2nd half LOSS

GOY line in play this week:  Auburn -14 (0.5u)  WIN

3-team 8-pt teaser:  +120 (risking 0.5)  LOSS
Ohio U. -4, Miami (Ohio) -6, & Penn State -6.5 

7-pt teaser:  Michigan State +17.5 & MSU/UM Under 47 (0.5u)  WIN

Cincinnati  +17.5 (0.25u)  Canceled
Western Michigan -6.5 -115 (0.25u)  LOSS
Penn State -13.5  (0.25u)  WIN
SMU +10  -123  (0.25u)  LOSS

FCS:  1 - 3
Austin Peay +18  LOSS
Youngstown State / South Dakota Under 54.5 & Under 52.5  LOSS
South Dakota State -9.5  WIN
Illinois State -3.5  LOSS

UDML parlay:  -0.1 units
NC State +145 with EMU +425 Loss  (risk 0.1u to win 1.19u)
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