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"MAYBE indy has value? are you kidding me? There's a ton of value there,
you obviously didn't look at their defensive improvements in the
offseason."
Thats true,but Luck is in his second year, always a problem for QBs cause their opp had several month to prepare. If you look at the way some games were won under this "chuck pagano circumstances", it was all about motivation. Indy had an 11-5 record with an average Point Margin of -1.9 per game. I even like this squad, but i dont see this kind of victores this year. +240 is not enough value for me to pick them as the division winner. |
Strongsideline | 8 |
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I calculated the wins of all 32 teams and looked if theres a statistical value in picking the division winners. I only like the falcons (+130) and the giants (+200) to win their divisions cause of the odds. I also like the over for the falcons season wins, line is 10.
I dont think the saints will be good enough on Defense, even with their HC back. Panthers and Bucs? Improved, but not enough. The Giants are allways a threat in my opinion. I think RGIII will miss some games,so that the Redskins will get problems. The eagles need to fix their D and learn a new system - not more than 8 wins. And how can you trust the cowboys? For +200 the giants offer some value here. All other Divisions seem too clear (so the odds are too low for me - no value) or too uncertain. Maybe Indy has some value @ +240 - but this texans team is still very strong. So for me: Falcons +130 Giants +200 Falcons over 10 wins Opinions? |
Strongsideline | 8 |
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Colts fighting for playoffs - chiefs just wanna get the 1st pick in the draft and take a shot on geno smith. |
Covers | 25 |
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i like the fins here, but i still have that ugly titans game in mind - dolphins looked good on paper as a 6 pt. fav and got blown out by 34 points at home. i dont know what this team will show on sunday. no bet
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Covers | 17 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SlayZeN: I have my whole bankroll on celtics +1.5 its a lock smells like the old JM martingale roadtrip system... oh boy |
Covers | 13 |
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hhm - quote didnt work, i tried to quote:
"the Titans will be able to bring their safeties down into the box and make Sanchez and his WR beat him. Sanchez simply cannot do this." BOL |
Jfox6546 | 33 |
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[Quote]
...the Titans will be able to bring their safeties down into the box and make Sanchez and his WR beat him. Sanchez simply cannot do this. good writeup - but i think this is the key point: even sanchez will complete some deep balls against this soft secondary on play-action |
Jfox6546 | 33 |
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If the jets go on with their playcalling (40 rush attemps &19 throws against the jags), sanchez will not be able to ruin this game by himself. As awful as this team looked this season, remember three facts:
1) the jets D is still much better than the titans D 2) with the steelers loss yesterday, this jets team has still a legitimate playoff chance - the remaining schedule (Titans, Chargers, Bills) is favorable, so i dont think this team has given up right now 3) Titans D is allowing a league worst 107 QB Rating at home. So even sanchez should complete some passes... Jets +1 |
Covers | 84 |
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i dont like the new look too...
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MoneyHoney99 | 8 |
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the Saints D is not good, but it improved since the start of the season.I think the Saints will fight their behind off to make a run to the playoffs. NO +1
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Covers | 38 |
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line moved from -1 to +1 because of the public money. I think the bookies were initially right on this one. I dont know why this ravens team has won 8 out of 10. They play like a 6-4 or 5-5 team. Chargers will win this one.
SD +1 |
Covers | 43 |
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Think Tampa comes down to earth. 4 game winning streak against car,sd,oak and min. dont overvalue the bucks!
Atlanta doesnt need 100yds on the ground to win. They average under 90 yards per game. This is the right opponent for ryan to get back on track. ATL -1 |
Covers | 33 |
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Denver is so much better than KC. But -10 is just too much for me. Denver needs a win and healthy players. I could see a blowout as likely as a win by a TD. no bet for me on this one.
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Covers | 49 |
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Luck plays so well at home - i like the colts big in this one. Fitzpatrick has just 1 pick in his last 3 games. It's time for him to throw multiple INT tomorrow. Colts -3 |
Covers | 38 |
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-3 is a gift! dont be fooled by the poor performance against the jags. Houston is the better team. this line will move to at least 5 i think.
Hou -3 |
Covers | 124 |
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chicago: 30th in total offense but 7th in points per game. tells you that the bears living from their takeaways. The niners are the best team in ballprotection with 9 giveaways. If they can avoid lots of TOs in this one, i cant see campbell an this offense scoring many points. leaning to the niners..
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Covers | 97 |
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Covers | 29 |
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and dont forget: this jags team plays not as bad on the road as it does at home (maybe because their not booed the whole game time)
4-0 ATS on the road |
Covers | 37 |
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reminds me at the Jax@GB game - i think Houstons main goal in this one is to keep the players healthy - jags +15 looks good
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Covers | 37 |
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@degengambler34
how can u bet on KC ml on the road against PIT and then go all in away against them at home after the chiefs played their best game of the last month? cassell isnt good, but at least showed in his final drive in reg. that he can trow the football to a teammate... |
Covers | 26 |
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