# SnakeEyes88

Member Since:November 2011
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NHL Betting > Chances of a Pens v. Hawks Stanley Cup Final > View Post
I'm in agreement with the 15% number that got thrown out.  I might even say slightly lower based on the math involved.  5Dimes has that final matchup at 5.88 to 1.  That price is going to be low based on the chalk factor, so figure Vegas thinks it actually takes place closer to 15%, as well.  There is just too much parity in the NHL to expect top seeds to walk through three rounds.  You have to factor injuries, hot goalies, puck luck and the zebras.  NHL playoffs is as much about luck/good breaks as it about team skill.  Tell me if Crawford got hurt or Malkin got re-concussed, you'd expect either of them to be huge favs to get to the finals anymore.  These teams are one injury away from a level playing field with a hot team/goalie.  Flip a coin 3 times and tell me how often you get 3 heads.  Thats what you are talking about with two teams needing to win three rounds.  I expect each of them to get through the first round 80% of the time....but you can't assume their condition going into round two or who their opponent will be.  That's the problem will predicting multiple rounds, you have no idea what you are capping 3 weeks from now.  Even if they were playing another 8 seed in the next two round and you expected them to roll 80% of the time again.  They still only make the final 60% of the time each.  Multiply together and you get 37%.  That is if each of them play 8 seeds (or worse) three rounds in a row.  Your 50% number is mathematically impossible until you get to each of them having a 90% chance of winning in each round.  That is a statistical impossibility in the NHL.  Figure them at 80% each for the first round, 70% second round and 65% in the third round.   These numbers maybe high but for the sake of crunching, figure they each have a 36% chance of making the finals.  Multiply together and you are looking at 13%.  You'd need to get about 8 to 1 to make that profitable.

Personally, I expect the Hawks to roll but would not be surprised at all to see the Pens fall.  They have a great team of individuals who have not had time to gel as a unit.  Their defense can be exploited and their goalie showed us last season  just how bad he can be.  A team like the Bruins, Caps or Rangers have the (goalie and the) ability to lock down an offense and enough firepower to punish a shaky goalie.  The odds on the Pens to win the East right now are ridiculous.

NHL Betting > EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS > View Post
I like your logic on the pens series. I think the leafs expose the Bruins in this series. They just don't have their team mojo right now. That isn't something you turn on at will. The Habs Sens could go either way. Montreal has been two different teams of late. If they show up at full strength they will force Ottawa into mistakes. If Price finds his form I don't think Anderson steals this series. I also wouldn't be surprised if Montreal falters and the Sens shut them down. Too close to call, I will lay off this series. I'm in disagreement with you about the Rangers Caps. Your comment about the Rangers not scoring is flawed. The Rangers were second in scoring only to the Jets after the trade deadline. They averaged over 3 goals a game and their PP has been hearing up. The only issue I see with the Rangers right now is their health. They need Brian Boyle at the dot and on the PK. They need Marc Staal frustrating OV. They need Clowe back. If they start this series healthy and stay that way, I don't see Washington winning more than 2. Holtby will need to be stellar for them to win. Unless Richards regresses and Nash disappears, Rangers roll. This team has four real lines for the first time in years. They stay out of the box, they will win. I can see the refs having a bigger impact on this series than any other. If they call it tIght, it will favor Washington. Their PP is just lethal with Green back to being himself. Don't be surprised if the Rangers win game one, that Caps start putting pressure on themselves. The first goal of each game is going to be big. The Rangers don't chase well but play very confidently when they get the lead.
Good write up. Good luck with your plays. I'll be pulling for your Hawks.

NHL Betting > Tuesday; Montreal ML > View Post
with you on this one.

NHL Betting > Tuesday At The Rink YTD 33-13 > View Post
My initial leans when looking at tomorrows card were Habs and Jets.  They are both playing well against teams that are just not keeping the puck out of their net or winning.  My only concern was a montreal let down after the emotional game against the B's.  Intend to look deeper at their schedule and get starting goalies but I may load up on one of these.  I tend to be like you and bet one unit each game....but lately, I am getting much clearer reads and narrowing each day to one pick.  The strongest play on your card IMHO is the Jets TT over but as Sharp mentioned it is very likely to be heavily juiced.  I'll weigh the number with the ML and be on one of them.  GL with your picks.

NHL Betting > thursday > View Post
GL tonight!

NHL Betting > SJSharks: Play of the Season > View Post

NHL Betting > SJSharks: Play of the Season > View Post
So far so good, SJS.

NHL Betting > 2-19-13 - Picks, goaltender, transactions, injury info and a whole lot more > View Post
Habs/NYR under 5
Habs +.5(Reg) (No Nash tonight)
Tor/TB under 6
STL/SJ under 5.5
Hawks ML

NHL Betting > Habs VS Rags > View Post
Nice Job!  Nothing on Dimes yet.  I would jump on this game at 5.5, let alone 6.  I've been assuming it would open at 5 or a heavily juiced 5.5.  With both #1s in and the way they have each been playing...heavy lean towards the under on this one.  The Rangers are rounding into form and playing their shot blocking tight D game.  Vegas will be leaving some value bc of the amount of overs they had early. Unless their powerplay starts to hum, I will ride Lundqvist and the Under in the games coming up.

NHL Betting > SJSharks: Play of the Season > View Post
I am on this because I've been chasing a Blues Under. Hoping your are correct.  Bastards cost me a handful when I chased their 4 game home stand.  Good luck!!

NHL Betting > 2-10-13 - Picks,goaltender,transactions, injury info and a whole lot more > View Post
Bos/Buff over 5.5
Pitt ML
Pitt/NJ over 5

NHL Betting > NHL PUCKS POOL - DAY 2 SUNDAY > View Post
edm/col under 5.5 -130
Bruins/Sabres over 5.5 -110
Penguins -160
NJ/Pitt over 5 -140

NHL Betting > 1-23-13 - Picks,goaltender,transactions, injury info and a whole lot more > View Post
Canucks.

no carry over from last season on the leaderboard?

NHL Betting > 1-20-13 - Picks,goaltender,transactions, injury info and a whole lot more > View Post

NHL Betting > 1-20-13 - Picks,goaltender,transactions, injury info and a whole lot more > View Post
Dall/Minn O5
Edm/Van O5.5

NHL Betting > HOOK'EM SATURDAY PUCKS > View Post
Best of luck tonight and the rest of the season!

with ya on the Yotes and Canes

NHL Betting > Sat Evening Picks > View Post
Carolina +110  1U
Yotes +110  1U
Nash (-1/2) -118  3U
Car/Fla O5.5 +130 1U
NYR +120 1U
NYR TT O2.5 -105 1U

Futures:
Karlsson Norris +400 1U
Nash Hart +1400 .5U
Krieder Calder +1400 1U
Granlund Calder +1400 1U

Cup finals:
NYR/STL +3550
NYR/CHI +3825

FYI on 49ers tomorrow at -3

Pro Hockey > New York at Boston (01/19/2013) > View Post
ok...I'll give you BOS at -180.  How do you make a pick before the line is released?  Did you happen to look at when the last time Bruins beat the Rags at home?  Lundqvist got "lit up" twice all of last season...good luck with that.

NHL Betting > Stanley Cup Finals Game 6 InGame Thread > View Post

KIngs and over looking good!!

I'd like to see Marty give up 6 tonight....

NHL Betting > Wed Pucks > View Post
on both with you

NHL Betting > 4-7-12 Picks, goaltender, injury and Playoff info !!!!!! > View Post
Thanks Lipp!

Preds ML

NHL Betting > Who's your Vezina trophy winner ?? > View Post
Lundqvist
Quick
Rinne

There is zero chance Elliot wins based on games played.

NHL Betting > 4-3-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post
Sabres in reg.
Yotes in reg
Rags/Flyers O5

NHL Betting > 4-1-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post

my phone died and I didnt get to post any of my picks in time today..

Flyers/Pens over

Sens

Rags

Mi/Chi Over 5

2-0 and looking ok for last 2.

Lipps put me on the Ducks/Oil over 5.5

SCRATCH the total on the late game....I'll take the Ducks ML

NHL Betting > 4-1-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post

my phone died and I didnt get to post any of my picks in time today..

Flyers/Pens over

Sens

Rags

Mi/Chi Over 5

2-0 and looking ok for last 2.

Lipps put me on the Ducks/Oil over 5.5

NHL Betting > 3-30-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post
Kings ML

NHL Betting > east playoffs seem like a done deal for 1-8 seeds > View Post
Sabres may get seven seed. That would make for a much more interesting first round match up for bruins. I understand your logic here but assuming penguins will roll is short sighted. Don't get me wrong, I have 3 sc final futures with them representing the east but that was when they had tons of value. They are listed as the favs now. Letang is out again, fleury maybe sitting after a shot to the head and Sid is a Philly elbow away from done for the season. At this point the bruins and devils have more value to their lines. the rangers will have problems with buffalo, as would the bruins. I agree that it would likely be rags devils and pens bruins but no way rangers lose series to devils. I think they lose to buffalo is much more likely than to NJ. Have you seen hank's record against the devils? It's absurd. Yes they split this year but one game was a Biron melt down and another was a fluke bounce off the glass in the final minute. Rangers outplayed them throughout the series with the exception of one game.
I can't see Pitt or Philly coming out of their series healthy. I think bruins may have the easiest road at this point. I would not write them off.

NHL Betting > 3-27-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post

bos/tb over 5.5

NYR ML...laying the juice

yesterday was 2-1 not 3-2.  reposted my picks in later thread...you must have counted det and philly twice.

NHL Betting > 3-26-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post
Philly -1
Det -1
Van ML

NHL Betting > 3-26-12 Picks, goaltender, transaction, injury info and much more > View Post

Philly -1

Det -1

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