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To follow up on this: all the 4 matchups ended their series in the first game. That is I bet on the dog to win on each game and all 4 bets won. Only two of the dogs remained as dogs though, two of my dogs became slight favs in the end and won.
So the second round still would continue with two series but for me all the series are over and I will continue on the third round. Will update the third round when its done. |
chaser15 | 173 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gibble: Totally get it Scrivero. I see you all around covers and appreciate your hard work. I've been getting burnt on MLB, any suggestions on a system to follow? Highly appreciated man, thank you :) Well, I have just started to follow the MLB Dog System by Danrules24 on this forum. It had a slow start but statistically it should be doing much better. So that could be a good one. I have also today started a thread on another forum where I try to create SDQL stuff for MLB. I will also right now start a thread there where I will play against streaks. I cant really suggest to tail at least yet as I cant backtest the streak ending one and the other SDQL stuff is just starting up. I might start an MLB thread here with all my plays later if people wish to follow. Good luck man! |
chaser15 | 173 |
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And to add to that: Being "busy" is a rather loose term. Meaning that posting the plays (if I can get all the right ones because of time difference) wouldnt take that much time but would I rather use the time in e.g. developing my own systems? Most likely yes. Hence, even if I certainly could find the time to post the chase, I most likely wont, as I will put the same time into similar things that require the time much more. I hope someone else would though.
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chaser15 | 173 |
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Sounds good with following the actual plays and the hypothetical real system bets. As the reality is that one wont be able to make the exact right bets at all times because of late line changes. Will be interesting to see how big of a difference there will be in units won/lost in the end.
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nfl_huskers | 144 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gibble: I'd love to follow the chase, Scrivero, if you feel like posting :) I will see what I can do :) So many things going on that I dont know if Im able to do that. Im not even 100 % sure that Im able to make all the right bets, at least I wont be able to wait until close to game time to see who becomes the dog if a match would be an even one. Just so many changes and rush in my "real life" at the moment. |
chaser15 | 173 |
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Thanks. It was funny to notice that with your plays and another system I am following I got a play in each and every game of the night. I could not play two of your plays because the other system had the opposite plays: I have the Atl-Phi as Over and I have St. Louis instead of Milwaukee.
Altogether 16 plays (2 in the Colorado game (U9,5 and Col to win) for 8 units. Didnt think a few weeks ago that I would be tailing MLB for 6-8 units each night, as Ive never played it before :D It just seems that there are much more great systems available for MLB than e.g. for NHL. Fun fun stuff to bet on. |
Danrules24 | 106 |
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Taking the profit and changing to a pure chase sounds good man.
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Danrules24 | 121 |
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I guess the only game for tonight is Memphis +4 to win $80. I started from half so Im in to win $40. Gotta go to sleep so I hope I got the right handicap.
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Danrules24 | 121 |
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Nice one chaser :) And thanks for the info on the favs too huskers!
So are you continuing to the second round of the playoffs chaser? I guess not. I feel like I want to do it when they start. Not gonna follow in this thread though, just gonna do it and see how it goes. |
chaser15 | 173 |
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I missed the Detroit game by the way, it had already started.. Played San Diego with double the bet size because of that instead.
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Danrules24 | 106 |
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I dont want to jinx it, again, but I dont think we can go any lower. Im coming in and tailing the whole season unless you lose faith in the system. Then I will stop tailing too.
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Danrules24 | 106 |
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Quote Originally Posted by nfl_huskers: Results for 4/16 LAA -1.5RL +140 LOSS (-1u) Looks like the Angels moved back to underdogs before game time. Bad break. I'll try to make decisions closer to game time to get results that more closely reflect the system parameters. Day: 0-1 (-1.00u) YTD: 1-3 (-1.55u) About the changes closer to game time (favs becoming dogs, line moving from >=8 to 7,5 etc): - Are you still going to (in the end of the season) follow the results of the games that you played or just the games that fell under the system? As from what I see from killersport, the only games so far falling to the system criteria have been: 1. 4/5 Giants Loss 2. 4/18 Mariners Win - This game total by the way became 8 in the end, making it also a play in my tweaked version of playing just the games with the total 8. Just very difficult to get exactly right plays when I go to sleep hours before gametime.. I think I will give up that extra 10 % in ROI in exchange to be able to play 5 times the amount of games and to win double the money without changing my unit size or bet size. I will start playing the system in June, I hope its profitable for you before that too! Today is most likely a play with Cleveland. They are a clear away fav and the line is at 8,5 (opened at 9). |
nfl_huskers | 144 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn: Also, if anyone does this in the morning...the games in the future tab....the web site does not refresh early. I have a work around on the update. Good to know :) By the way, is there a place/a way to check the previous years' results for all those systems? Would be interesting. |
DegenGamble | 274 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn: Ya I saw that and fixed it. There's a lot that needs done. Ex: the 5 run fade is totally outta wack the way I see it. It's hard to fix it all cause of work and home life!!! I'm off work Friday and Saturday though and it should be finished. I put it out early for those extra eyes. @Scrivero how old is your Office? I started this with Office 2013 (?) and currently have the newest one. I believe that any older office than Office 2010 (?) cannot do the updates on here. If you have a good copy...hitting ALL (on Summary..lower left) would start the download. Also, try hitting TODAY. That makes the upper left date the current date. I'm going to fix all that uses the upper date, to use the lower date (which automatically updates). A lot of web sites keep changing their format, so I'm going to fix it so it won't matter to us. "Standings" did it to me today, chopped part of the American League East off. If anyone sees anything else.... Thanks for the tips! Office 2016, also everything was set to automatic. I got it working! Your tip of pressing the ALL downloaded all the results, I just did not realize it before. Now I see all the plays for today. Im probably (hopefully) not the only one too to not notice to press ALL, so maybe the instructions tab that you planned would be a good idea. |
DegenGamble | 274 |
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Thanks for doing and following the system!
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w1s3k1d | 124 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn: The plays are on the Systems tab and are for that day you update it. If you update it daily like I do, the plays will change. Also, daily, if you hit "Add to Bet Tracker", that will keep the plays from previous days on Bet Tracker tab. I'm still working on everything to make sure all parameters are correct and should have it updated for this weekend. I also will have like an instruction tab to help out. Thanks for the info. I think my problem is that the Excel is not "updated", or more like I dont know how to update it. I would assume that the results of the games are updated manually, right? Seems that my Excel is stuck on the 12th of April, that is all the stats are until the 11th of April and all the system plays are for the 12th of April, even if it says 18th of April on top of Systems. So do let me know how to update it, thanks! :) |
DegenGamble | 274 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn: Okay here it is. I have a number of different systems on there that I've picked up over the years. Some of you may recognize a few. That said, the plays may not be an exact format as the author had...I haven't checked and perfected. Some I don't even know what the criteria is, I did the bulk of the system plays in the excel in early 2015. This is editable. If anyone finds a problem or has a suggestion, let me know. Again, I haven't done much as the criteria of the system plays. I spent most of the time since my last post, making sure that all formulas were correct and matched to the proper cells...blah blah blah. Also, on the "P" tab, you can input your plays and when you update, so will this sheet, along with your bankroll. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZQlFSRnpUMHdoN28/view?usp=sharing Thanks! Can I ask a question about how to see the plays for each day: I thought I figured it out and found the plays in the "Systems" tab but I dont know how to read it... which play is for which day etc. Could you give me a tip on how to read it? |
DegenGamble | 274 |
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I have never bet on NBA but I think its time to start, I am liking those stats.
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Danrules24 | 121 |
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The bookies are adjusting the odds now that there are altogether three 1-0/2-0 games in the playoffs. What started out as odds of ca 68 for the favorites to win 1-0 is now down to ca 50.
Lets calculate how it affects our second options of favs 1-0: 2. We play just the 1-0 for favorites, 0,1 units per bet. We hit ca 1,8 times. Odds are ca 50 (+4900). We win ca 9 units. We invest altogether 8,8 units. We make a profit of 0,2 units. Im not sure if this system is worth playing now that the good odds are no longer there. It seems that a problem with this type of system (the same with the Under system) is that when there are so few games and so few teams playing and they play each other all the time, the reaction from bookies to the odds and from the public to the scores is very fast and "correct". During a longer season its easier to get good odds all season long. Calculated some other options as well and nothing seems playable anymore. I think that we will abandon this system for now and try to see what to do first of all during the regular season and secondly during the playoffs. We might e.g. risk a lot during the first two or three evenings and just see if we make a quick buck before the bookies start adjusting the odds. Will be fun to backtest too, to see if tehre is such a thing as lots of shutouts during the e.g. first 3 nights during all last 10 seasons :) The same with the Under system. We might just go big with Under 4,5 the first two or three nights and then just abandon it. We can certainly do the whole season if we find an angle for it. Loads of more data of games too, ca 15 times more, so we will see much more trends there. I will open the thread I mentioned in the previous post for the next season closer to season starting. So farewell for now! I have an MLB system coming up and its not the same as I have been testing in nfl_huskers' thread. I will though follow the system that is almost the same as nfl_huskers' one in his thread. I have sadly also been "forced" to stop tailing various systems either because backtesting have shown them to not be profitable, or the person has stopped doing the system, or I cant do the system because of time difference. I still want to play something though. We shall see what to do. |
Scrivero | 132 |
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Ok, the post appeared now, great :)
So lets do some more calculations. I left all my stats at home as I am away but am going to recreate the SDQL queries needed and calculate some things: From 2006 - 2015: HF 4 times 0-0, odds of ca 100 HF 15 times score of 1-0, odds of ca 68 HF 15 x 2-0, 40 AF 1 x 0-0, 100 AF 3 x 1-0, 65 AF 1 x 2-0, 40 HD 1 x 0-0, 100 HD 1 x 1-0, 70 HD 2 x 2-0, 45 AD 1 x 0-0, 100 AD 7 x 1-0, 75 AD 15 x 2-0, 60 The odds could be a tad off, but are close. Those are decimal, so e.g. 70 = +6900 American. The query I used was (and various variations of it): AF and playoffs = 1 and goals = 1 and o:goals = 0 So altogether 67 of scores 0-0 to 2-0 in 10 years. So ca 7 per year. I am going to leave out the scores from 3-0 and up because while 3-0 comes up as often as 1-0 or 2-0, the odds are just too low to make it profitable in the long run. So lets calculate some options with those stats. 1. If we play all (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 and 0-2 for 0,1 units): We hit ca 7 times per season. The odds are ca 60 (+5900). We win 42 units (not counting units invested into those games). We invest altogether 44 units (ca 88 games, 0,5 units per game). So we make a loss of 2 units. 2. We play just the 1-0 for favorites. We hit ca 1,8 times. Odds are ca 67 (+6600). We win ca 12 units. We invest altogether 8,8 units. We make a profit of 3,2 units. 3. We play all 1-0 scores. We hit ca 2,6 times. Odds are ca 70 (+6900). We win ca 18,2 units. We invest altogether 17,6 units. Profit of 0,6 units. Any other possible options when looking at those amount of games ending in a specific scores and those odds? Lets check all max 2-0 scores per season: 2016: so far 2 2015: 6 2014: 8 2013: 7 2012: 7 2011: 7 2010: 11 2009: 3 2008: 3 2007: 5 2006: 8 The query I used was (and variations of it): playoffs = 1 and goals < 3 and o:goals = 0 and season = 2006 So what I will do now is: 1. I will stop the shotgun shutouts (of 1-0, 4-0, 0-2, 0-4, 0-1 in different games). It just takes the joy out of following the games. 2. We will decide between a. doing the all games all scores (0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1, 0-2) and b. all 1-0 scores, and c. favs 1-0. 3. We will try to stick with our choice unless we think of more variations or ways of making this more profitable. 4. I might post (this post basically, as it has all needed info) as a new thread to this or another forum, as this system needs comments so that it can be improved already for next year. You can use those queries to check the O/U for the shutouts, the odds etc. etc. I hope someone can find another angle to this. I hope someone with more experience than me can take a look at those stats and find something good. I appreciate all help. |
Scrivero | 132 |
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