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Quote Originally Posted by The8ofCups: Thanks, realmwalker. I can do some number crunching on ATS results going back about 22 years. Getting some ideas on how I can crack this open... Keep in mind more current analysis on the teasers will likely get you the better idea of what NFL teams are doing. Going too far back wont net any valuable information and will just be a mining of data that is really not relevant to what you are looking for. Just as a heads up I am starting to put together a logical way to use teasers in the NFL this season. This is why your question seemed so relevant. Given data from the past 3-5 years would go a long way to putting together a nice teaser system which could pay. I hit you with a friend request. Perhaps we can share play ideas and exchange data.ideas and see if we cant come to a nice setup this season. Hit me with a PM or email if you think this is something that would interest you. As you can see I LURK and read far more than I post as most is fluff and nonsense, but I would welcome some one to bounce plays or ideas off of without delving into all the hassle posting plays on a thread bring with it. Let me know and GL! |
The8ofCups | 7 |
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If you are talking about NFL, and with out going into a whole lot of math, the simple answer is typically the 6 or 6.5 teasers. Again, as mentioned previously, the key is crossing certain numbers (the 3, 7, 10, 6, 14). Those numbers are , IN ORDER, the most frequent NFL differential scores. Meaning most often NFL games end in a 3, 7, 10, 6, or 14 point difference. If you want to maximize your chance of success with a teaser you need to get to as close to +EV as possible.
Quick example: Traditionally, the -110 bet for an ATS bet requires you to win 52.3 % of the time. (The math is bet/payout -->110/210 = 52.3%). Now when you factor in a teaser(in this case we will use a 2 team 6 point teaser) you need to establish what the inclusion of say TWO teams are and at what level they must win at to be successful. Using 5dimes, they offer a 2 team 6 pt teaser where "TIES WIN" at -105...thus you are getting that bet at the equivalent of a -249 bet...essentially they are charging you 139 cents for the points. Thus you need each team to win at a 71.3% clip to make it a +EV bet. Therefore you need to find two teams whose ATS bets are best suited to maximize the points you are buying. Teams with which you can exceed the 71.3% for it to be a profitable play in the long term. Through some research it appears that the following was true from like 2005 to 2010. Again, do research for current stats...anyway...during that time teams that were +4.5 to +5.5 Road Dogs were winning at a percentage above your target 71.3%. Also Home Faves starting at -7.5 to -8.5 teased down to below the 3 were hitting at 76%, and finally Road Dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased up were hitting at 72%. Sooo, if you were looking to maximize a teaser, the key is to find out what is really behind the payouts and then find the key numbers to crossover to maximize your chances. JUST FYI...the 10 pt teasers are really just folly, you might get lucky here and there, but the pay out is too low for the risk made... Hope that helps....Finally, there was a book written in 2001 I think by STANFORD WONG called Sharp Sports Betting which detailed some "basic strategy" rules for teasers, but like with everything else, since that time I am certain that books have adjusted. |
The8ofCups | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Realmwalker:
I am basing chases based on outcomes on 4/2. 4/5 Plays Detroit (-175) Game 1 bet was 1.70 + 5 = 6.70 - LOSE 5 Run Chase Games A's (+147)(against Indians)-chase game 1 (Sabathia) - WIN +1.43 4/6 Plays YTD = 0 - 0 Detroit (-164) Game 1 bet was 1.70 + 5 = 6.70 - LOSE 5 Run Chase Games YTD = 1 - 0 + 143 Nats(+125)(against Cards)-ChaseGame2(Lohse) -
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makethempay | 186 |
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I am basing chases based on outcomes on 4/2. 4/5 Plays Detroit (-175) Game 1 bet was 1.70 + 5 = 6.70 5 Run Chase Games A's (+147) (against Indians) - chase game 1 (Sabathia)
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makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
i'm looking at other sites, threads and it looks like since the Mets scored 5+ on 4/2, ATL is a no play tonight. you must wait 2 more days to fade the Mets Hey, Molsen, shoot me the info on other sites you have referring to this system, I too am trying to set up a sheet for this. realmwalker@pobox.com |
makethempay | 186 |
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Not necessary to play EVERY one though right? If the system works it should work on one chase as well as 5 right?
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makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
cisco said nothing about starting over if that teams wins by 5+ in the 2 games you skip. i guess that's right. i'm starting off betting $5 per game until we get clarification from cisco. Another good point! The SKIP games it is irrelevant what the scores are. So indeed the Mets are FADE candidates tonight (4/4) as well as 4/6. Good one Molsen |
makethempay | 186 |
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Obviously I am looking at this system from a new user stand point and posting helps me work out the kinks. From what COVERDAT is saying, any chase can and likely should be operated independently of any other.
As becomes obvious, many of these can step on the toes of other ones, so you need to grab onto one, set your parameters and run that chase independent and exclusively of any other chase. I dont see how you could really run them all without some SERIOUS time investment. ;)
The HOME FAV seems a bit easier to track, but both have merit in the underlying reasoning though.
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makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
Don't forget the Mets on Sat. and then ATL on Sun. if no one in the series wins by more than 5. both won by 5+ on 4/2 but Atl played on 4/3. tricky system but i'm sure it pays Well Mets won by a score of 13-0 on 4/2, they did not play on 4/3 so we would skip their next 2 games (those being today 4/4 and tomorrow 4/5). Assuming they dont win by 5+ again, the FADE on the Mets begins 4/6 against Atlanta. |
makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
cool. thank you. i really want to know the parameters of the 3 game HOME losing streak because it looks like the best system. It does look like a good system because it uses a good team in a favored matchup as the basis for it, and works that eventually that team is due to HIT by the law of averages. Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
is it consecutive without a road trip and/or (what if the team has a home game in there when they're +100 and they win), etc. right now i read it as: 3 consecutive home losses as a -110+ fav and they stay at home and are once again a -110+ favorite From what was written above, if a team loses 3 at home, while being a -110 fav or better, then hits a 16 game road trip, those games are irrelevant to the chase, when they return and are at home and then are dogs, that game too would not count, thus still putting you on game 3 of your chase when teh team is HOME and FAVORED by -110 or better. 1. A -110 fav is expected to win about 52% of the time, so playing this or better percentages 4 consecutive times REALLY should pay off. 2. Home teams win historically at a .540 clip. 3. You are playing a 500 or better team, so you are not playing on a crap team. Factor those 3 things into the chase and its results should pay off. The key is staying on target with your money management and using progressive betting to eventually net a 1 unit win over the course of the chase. Thoughts? |
makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
tomorrow's plays would be to fade MIL, CLE, STL and ATL assuming none of the mentioned teams win by 5+ today Just to update where we are: Friday 4/4 Plays - BOLD is ML Play (to win 1 unit)
Saturday, April 5th (to win 1 unit)
Then Using the HOME FIELD CHASE
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makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
with the .470 home team system, DET seemed like a play today but they aren't a .470 team yet. they haven't won a game. i know plenty of people were saying "they're due" etc but this system will only work if you stick to the rules. Yes Detroit would have been a play today in the 1st day of a 4 game chase where they are favored by -110 or more. Also in terms of winning percentage: |
makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
NYM won again by 5+ on 4/2 so we'd skip 2 more games. they wouldn't be a play until 4/6 Ah, nice catch, that would be correct |
makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Molsen:
also, what if a .470+ team loses it's last home game as a -110 fav and then goes on the road for a week and then comes home and loses 2 more as a -110 fav. play? IMO and based on what has been written, the ONLY FACTORS seem to be: 1. Consectutive home losses when favored by -110 or more. OH YEAH AND MAKE SURE it is PRE ALL STAR BREAK ;) |
makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Coverdatspred:
This thing can get complicated I guess
Agreed, however since it would be irrelevant to the system because in the initial situation we are only concerned with what is happening with the initial team who won by 5...in this case we are only concerned with NATS, DODGERS, METS, ANGELS. If we are going to follow the "plan" we should probably track both as mutually exclusive. Meaning we ignore the fact that CARDS and BRAVES both won, and bet FOR them against the teams mentioned above, keeping in mind to FADE them when there subsequent 2 game wait period is over. Thus 4/4 is still: Cards over Nats Now if we count the 4/2 blowout wins by Cards and Braves we can begin betting AGAINST THEM on 4/6. Sound about right? Cisco? |
makethempay | 186 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Coverdatspred:
Cards over Nats (-142)
Braves over Mets (-118)
Nice Update on these. The 2 above games are also teams (Cards and Atlanta) who won by 5+ runs out on 4/2 and thus we are technically supposed to be skipping their next 2 games.....what then? Do we just latch on to one chase and ignore the Cards and Atlanta beating teams by 5? We cant treat them as exclusive else we are not actually following the sytem? Do you follow? |
makethempay | 186 |
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Based on recent games, the following teams are ripe for the system:
4/2 Games where team won by 5 or more.
Milwaukee won 8-2
Boston won 5-0
Atlanta won 10-2
Cleveland won 7-2
Mets won 13-0
Cards won 8-3
4/3 Games
No one won by 5 or more, so above candidates are still viable for the 5 run Chase
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Assuming none of the above teams who won by 5 or more on 4/2 win by 5 in their next two contests, the chase can begin on all of the above teams.
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makethempay | 186 |
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