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Wek 3 Best Totals
I have been reading this board and feel like its time to start giving back. I am 10-2 on the year and would like to start posting my picks and people can keep track of my record for proof.
VA Tech/East Carolina over 59
*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country.
Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here.
The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher.
Take the over big.
Tulsa/Toledo over 73.5 ( moved down to 69)
*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game.
Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem.
Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points.
Take the over.
*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it.
Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line.
Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago.
Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all.
Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total.
The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle.
Take the over.
LA Tech/W Kentucky over 60.5
*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out.
Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz.
In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses.
I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense.
The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle.
Take the over.