Preism

Member Since:September 2017
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Preism
College Football > Blowoutgm' s Week 3 picks 23-9 YTD! > View Post
Fitzgerald has really had some stiff completion past wo games. Not saying he is not a good QB to claim he is on fire and put a lot of weight into that is not smart. Not sure he has seen a secondary and D Line like LSU Plus Mr. Arden key before. Would you say he IS better than the Heisman Trophy winner last year? WE ALL SAW WHAT lsu DEFENSE DID TO HIM. Miss St defense is what would worry me the most if I was LSU bc they are hard nosed and could be for real. Just have not played anybody yet and last year doesn't help prove their case. If they can stop run and make LSu pass on 2nd and 3rd down they have a chance

Preism
College Football > Michigan total 45 and Tulsa 68 whats really going on > View Post
Can anybody please explain how the Michigan total has dropped all the way down to 45. Seems like Michigan could put at least 35-40 by themselves and Air force will get a few in the end zone. Is this a trap. Same goes for the Tulsa/Toledo total dropping from 73-68. Is this a trap as well. These are typically totals through the years that go up not down.

Preism
College Football > Why to not take MIssissipi State. > View Post
Moses Guthrie- Last year was Aranda's first year so Prescott was already in Pro ball. LSU lost to Dak the year Les Miles was on his way out the door when he ran all over us at home with 3rd and Chavis as our DC. For Mr. Tappy maybe you have not seen what Mr. Guice and D. Williams are doing this year with our ability to spread the field 

Preism
College Football > Why to not take MIssissipi State. > View Post
Agreed. I think there are way many more games with more value. Its going to be a close game unless their D is not all its cranked up to be

Preism
College Football > Wek 3 Best Totals > View Post
Thanks Naenaeb!! what you think about Pit + 14.5. Same thing happened with Tulsa total last week and it sky rockets up by game time. Think some boys in vegs with some serious cash flow may be buying that line down

Preism
College Football > Why to not take MIssissipi State. > View Post

I am a huge LSU fan so I have a cardinal rule I odnt bet on them bc of emotion. This is what our DC has done against mobile QBS


2014 LSU vs Wisconsin:
Anthony Jennings: 9 carries, -2 yards

2014 Nebraska vs Wisconsin:
Tommy Armstrong: 20 carries, 17 yards

2014 Ohio State vs Wisconsin:
Cardale Jones: 8 carries, 9 yards

2014 Auburn vs Wisconsin:
Nick Marshall: 7 carries, 18 yards

2015 Maryland vs Wisconsin:
Perry Hillis 11 carries, -14 yards

2016 Mississippi State vs LSU:
Nick Fitzgerald: 13 carries, 13 yards

2016 Ole Miss vs LSU:
Chad Kelly: 12 carries, 56 yards

2016 Alabama vs LSU:
Jalen Hurts: 20 carries, 114 yards, 1 TD
(72 yards came on 3 carries, 42 yards on the other 17 carries)

2016 Texas A&M vs LSU:
Trevor Knight: 6 carries, 11 yards

2017 Louisville vs LSU:
Lamar Jackson: 26 carries, 33 yards


TOTAL:
132 carries
255 yards
1.93 yards per carry
1 TD


Preism
College Football > NCAA WEEK 3 **** Good chance I sweep the board**** > View Post

LSU wins against Mississippi state no doubt. They could win by just a touchdown but that's a close call.

LSU DC Dave Aranda stats against running qb's and Arden Key is back( Best  Defensive player in the nation)

2014 LSU vs Wisconsin:
Anthony Jennings: 9 carries, -2 yards

2014 Nebraska vs Wisconsin:
Tommy Armstrong: 20 carries, 17 yards

2014 Ohio State vs Wisconsin:
Cardale Jones: 8 carries, 9 yards

2014 Auburn vs Wisconsin:
Nick Marshall: 7 carries, 18 yards

2015 Maryland vs Wisconsin:
Perry Hillis 11 carries, -14 yards

2016 Mississippi State vs LSU:
Nick Fitzgerald: 13 carries, 13 yards

2016 Ole Miss vs LSU:
Chad Kelly: 12 carries, 56 yards

2016 Alabama vs LSU:
Jalen Hurts: 20 carries, 114 yards, 1 TD
(72 yards came on 3 carries, 42 yards on the other 17 carries)

2016 Texas A&M vs LSU:
Trevor Knight: 6 carries, 11 yards

2017 Louisville vs LSU:
Lamar Jackson: 26 carries, 33 yards


TOTAL:
132 carries
255 yards
1.93 yards per carry
1 TD


Preism
College Football > NCAA WEEK 3 **** Good chance I sweep the board**** > View Post
I would like to challenge you to your best 5 bets of weekend. Been reading board for a while but just started to post my picks. You down?

Preism
College Football > Wek 3 Best Totals > View Post
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated

Preism
College Football > Wek 3 Best Totals > View Post

I have been reading  this board and feel like its time to start giving back. I am 10-2 on the year and would like to start posting my picks and people can keep track of my record for proof.

VA Tech/East Carolina over 59 


*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country. 

Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here. 

The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher.

Take the over big. 


Tulsa/Toledo over 73.5 ( moved down to 69)


*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game.

Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem. 

Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points.

Take the over. 


*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it. 

Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line. 

Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago.

Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total.

The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle. 

Take the over. 


LA Tech/W Kentucky over 60.5


*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out.

Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz.

In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses.

I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense.

The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 


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