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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Another query on line movements. Both Heat and Clips have the money coming for them but the line moves against them. But the overs has money coming for it and the line moves with the money. Any thoughts?
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Hi All,
Haven't posted for awhile but have been following this thread pretty closely. Got to say I find the totals movements a bit puzzling today. All the money has been for the overs, well as far as I can make out, yet the line reverses...why? Is it a play by the books to drag money to the unders to even it out. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by manstar10: PB is penalty box. its a chat forum on wagerline/covers where swearing is allowed and where people get sent for swearing in punblic forums. check it out Thanks Manstar, Off to check it out. cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Hi Mavin
Thanks for replying to my earlier questions. Much appreciated. Just been checking out line movements from the Sacramento/Memphis game. Line kind of bobbled between 3.5 and 4 points. Nearly 80% of the money went for Memphis. Although I don't remember it being that way earlier in the day but could be wrong. So lots of late money for Memphis?? The line moves don't seem to stack up with the amount of money that came for Memphis. Whats your take on this? Cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by Snapp: Oh Lord....not this 'fixed' thing again. I've heard rumors of dudes getting the PB for this. It could be just a rumor but....plrase. What's PB out of interest? Assuming not personal best....haha. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by stocktrader240: Jeez man really, man up if anyone ever has a losing day they they can't blame anyone but themselves. It's super weak and major cop out to blame someone else. You are the one in the end that ultimately chooses your own pics. You sir sound like someone that should not be gambling Well said. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by SportsMavin: Orlando played 7 straight Overs. At that stage I usually wait for first Under to start riding Unders after that. I would not risk touching the totals in a game where evidently the big money has been thrown on both sides by how I read the line movement throughout the day Thanks Mavin, adding to my notes regarding waiting for a trend to finish and then look to go the other way. Seems like I read the line movement the wrong way again. Just to check did you see it as more money for the under than the over? Cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by m10: I see even money on total thus far. Hmm, the website I'm looking at has money bet for the line at evens but unders for the total at 61%, although I could very well be misreading it. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
OK, Still working on my line movement reading abilities.
Is something screwy going on with the totals in the Portland/Orlando game. If I'm reading this correctly starting line was 191.5, Caesars and LVH opened at 190.5, line is up to 191.5 at C and 192 at LVH but 62% of the money is with the under. Trying to draw an over bet so the logical conclusion is to take the under. How am I doing so far?? |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
Mavin thanks for taking the time to post your views on each game and the line movements therein. Really is great stuff for someone to learn from.
Thanks again. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Cheers Melos. Stockton/Malone - amazing combo, could fall asleep watching them though, pick and roll yawn, pick and roll yawn. I love watching pure point guards, used to love KJ from Phoenix and Steve Nash is my favorite current player. Point guards just see it all happening before it happens.
Thanks for the reply Mavin, I appreciate how busy you must be and to take time to reply is very good of you. To note earlier you mentioned Toronto/OKC as a classic under play, I checked the line moves, consensus was with the over and opened at 197 and then steadily moved out with Pinnacle and Bet 365 (as an example) until it hit 199 and then moved back in 2 points closing at 197 just where it began. The website that I was guided to had the money as a 50/50 split for the under/over. Just trying to work out how it all ticks, right now when I see a line movement I'm thinking, is it a reverse line move, a fake reverse line move and now I'm thinking wise guys trying to middle. Obviously it's hard to quantify exactly what is what but just interested in your line of thinking as to how you came to the conclusion it was classic under. Cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Youhzny sounds like a bit of a character. I think everyone would be advising you the same thing Parlay, betting with borrowed money is going to end in disaster. Maybe not today or tomorrow but some day.
I appreciate that things/opportunities may not be great in your country but there's got to be better ways. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
[Quote: Originally Posted by Kohler]
Paul, I too went to that site. Read the words at the top of that page. Money stands for % of bets on the "moneyline" not the % of money bet. oops, that's a bit embarrassing. Thanks for the heads up, I was getting a bit excited, currently at work so scanned the page and missed that info and jumped in making as it turns out unfounded observations. Any ideas how to get info on % of number of bets made. Cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
Also wondering with a lot of people watching the NFL today and with the Lakers/Nuggets the last game of the day be a lot of get out of jail betting with the public going heavily with the fav....Understand the public is not always wrong so is the book trying to protect itself by a steadily increasing line or is it trying to suck you in to bet LA.
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
Apologies I should have been a little clearer with the last post, I wasn't talking about Under betting trends as in under totals but rather on the website I was looking at it had betting trends with three separate columns.
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions Quote Originally Posted by Guaji: search on google like this: "scores and odds casino grid" you will find the first page Thanks Guaji, much appreciated. Ok bit of practice here reading the lines. Under betting trends, there are 3 separate columns, sides, money and totals and a percentage given for each one. Am assuming that the side column is giving % numbers for the bets for either side, eg Denver or LA and the money is for actually money wagered. So if 73% of the bets are coming for LA yet the total money is 58% then the bigger bets must be for the Nuggets yet the line is moving big time for Lakers. So still more money for the Lakers but as much to move the line like that??? I originally liked Lakers, off a loss to clips and got the nuggets in the B2B spot but those numbers make me a little wary..... Appreciate any pointers on my reading of this. Cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Detroit/Charlotte - Strong under consensus on covers, total has moved out 1 point...
Phoenix/Memphis - Slight Over consensus on covers, total has dropped 2/2.5 points.... Phoenix a reasonable home squad and getting 4.5 start. Although let me down recently against Utah. I realize Covers consensus is not locked in as which way the public would be going but would be a pretty good indication. Mavin has mentioned earlier there are a few different stes that give info on wagers placed. Tried a google search, anything with Vegas, Line, Money, Sportsbooks provides a lot of hits, would be grateful if someone could PM me a link. Not sire if this is against the rules or not so if it is then ignore. Cheers |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
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Toronto has played in the early spot on Sunday 3 times this year. Twice covered at home against Rockets and double OT against spurs. Got blown out on road against Clips. From memory dogs have good record in early games. That would need to be verified. Not by me though time for bed.
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SportsMavin | 12682 |
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replied to
Has anyone made any money betting on sports steadily throughout the past year? 'cause I did! See how
in Website Promotions
Hi Mavin,
Been watching this thread from the beginning and have been really enjoying and appreciating your time and efforts in outlining everything you do and also the rest of the posters here, Melos et al who have been adding their well thought out observations. So to note I live in Oz and have been thinking about taking some time off to look after the kids before the last one heads off for school and instead of working a couple of days here and there I thought I would road test myself to see if I could have any success capping the NBA. A couple of years ago I was in a tipping contest with the NBA and was hitting 60% ATS for between 150-200 bets (I didn't realize at the time 60% was gold) but was only betting real money on about a tenth of those games and the ones I was putting money on was only hitting 50% at best and ended up getting frustrated with the whole thing and gave it away. Afterall NBA is a grind, reading reviews of 13 game card and then previews for a 12 game card becomes a little tiring after awhile specially when you have limited time to devote to it and it is every day, the flip side of that is with the amount of games and scheduling it gives some nice spots to bet in. Just for the record, I'm not delusional, I know this is a hard, hard road to walk and you just don't wake up one day to be a Pro-Capper and it's not a license to print money but a lot of studying and hard work is involved. I set myself a three step program, make my picks everyday for two months and track how I go, if this is successful, go in with small money for say $10 bets until the end of the season, if this also successful then step in with some real dollars for next season. Started well, thought how easy is this was pushing above 65% for first week, although knew it couldn't continue but have really been spinning my wheels hard for the last three or so weeks, only had a couple of bad losing days but lots of little losing days and 50/50 splits so it's becoming clear I need to move towards more selective betting. I believe I've got a feel for my really good bets, for instance I love good solid home squads who don't have a great overall record and are playing against teams with a good overall record but who don't necessarily have a great overall record. Eg - yesterday Boston at home to Indiana, Detroit home to Atlanta (Although I flipped and went Atlanta late due to a line movement but liked Detroit originally..oops) however also liked Phoenix at home to Utah and Bucks home to Rockets but in general I feel that is a really good spot especially after the good solid home squad has had a poor road trip. But theres note enough plays in these spots to keep me going so have to add a few more weapons to my arsenal. So with great interest I have been reading all your posts to learn and also really appreciative of others jumping in with their stuff as well. I really enjoyed the detailed analysis of spreads and line movements and before reading this I was aware of reverse line movements and the sharp/public money but had never been aware that their were false line movements started by the books to sucker you in and now having read it, it makes perfect sense why they would do this. Anyways have been paying attention to totals (have never bothered before) , line movements and consensus on covers. Both Houstons and Denver last 2 games have seen either an over or under heavily favored (or a fifty split) and for a big reverse line move (4 points) with the four games going in favor of the line move. Seems too good to be true.... I appreciate any more info you have too give on this subject with a couple of random questions floating through my head such as: In general do the sharps mostly all recognize the same games to hit (I'm thinking more or less yes) and in general I'm assuming bet against the public money and therefore would they step in early knowing that other sharps will step in early and drive the line out or will they wait to see what happens with the public money and try and get a couple of points going their way. Some times you'll see lines trending downwards, maybe not a lot but a little and then a little half point jump the other way. In general where does the late money come from, sharps or public or a whole lot of mixture of both. At what point do we think the value would be gone, a 4 point line move is steep, I'm thinking long term if you wait for a line to move 4 points it is going to cut out a lot of the advantage of following the sharp money. Apologies if these are infantile questions, just trying to get a handle on what I'm seeing. Apologies also for long, long post, hopefully with it being out of NBA business hours it won't clog up the thread. |
SportsMavin | 12682 |
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