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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3: Is it normal for your lines to be so far off from the linemakers' that you place 18 bets ? Maybe you're the one creating bad numbers. I'll be curious to see the end result of this day's action for you. 18 bets is typical. If I were to be the one creating bad numbers, Pinnacle wouldn't be moving their numbers based on my action. The sharpest book in the world doesn't move their number just because they take a large bet. They move it when somebody is consistently beating them and/or beating the closing number. Proof I'm not full of ish: https://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=t8l0zm&s=6 https://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=33awk7a&s=6 Is 18 bets typical for most? No, because those people are touts. And touts can't keep you around very long betting 18 games a day because the law of large numbers will set in much quicker. This forum is full of people spewing off Johan "no hitter" type angles, because that's what touts do and they think if somebody else is saying it, it must be true. |
OracleComputer | 7 |
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When you say "so far off" what do you mean "so far off".
I fire a 1 unit bet for anything I think has a greater than 1% roi. I fire a 2 unit bet for anything over a 6% roi. I fire a 3 unit bet for anything over a 10% roi. Totals are much further off than sides. Sides is a much more efficient market. And has NOTHING to do with somebody like Johan's last time out. |
OracleComputer | 7 |
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Current lines on Pinny if you wanted to play my bets now a few hours later.
TB/Mia Over 8 -113 Tor/Atl Under 8 -109 Was/Bos Over 9 -114 SD/Mil Over 9 -106 Ana/Col Over 10.5 -105 Oak/Ari Over 9 -118 Tex/SF Over 7.5 -108 SD +136 KC +133 So just like I said out of 7 totals posted, 6 have moved my way SIGNIFICANTLY grabbing large amounts of EV just by placing the bets when I placed them. So I'll say it again. Situational capping is nonsense. Model the game. Create your own number. And if you can consistently beat the closing number you will win. That's it.
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OracleComputer | 7 |
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I prefer:
1) Never get less than 12 hours sleep 2) Never play poker with a guy named after a city 3) Never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her arm. Now you do that and everything else is cream cheese.
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TheRoarrr | 7 |
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The play was fine. But the "sharps" were not on it for Johan "no-hitter" reason.
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RookieBALBOA | 41 |
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Remove hot/cold and streaks from your vocabulary/handicapping.
What you see as streaks are merely random fluctuations that provide no predictive value.
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bettinbig5 | 6 |
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Today's Bets:
TB/Mia Over 8 +106 (3 units) Tor/Atl Under 8+101 (2 units) Was/Bos Over 9 +103 (2 units) SD/Mil Over 8.5 -110 (2 units) Ana/Col Over 10 +103 (2 units) Oak/Ari Over 9 +110 (2 units) Tex/SF Over 8 +106 (2 units) SD +132 (2 units) KC +138 (2 units) Sure pay attention to wins and losses, but in particular pay attention to where the number closes at. I am only posting my 2 units plays and higher but also have 1 unit plays on (Tor, Cin, NYM, TB, SEA). I have 1 unit plays on (Chc Under, Nym Over, Det Over, Sea Over). |
OracleComputer | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS: Where are all those haters against the OP now. Didn't play this game. But it does hold true that most pitchers that pitch a no hitter or a perfect game one night get lit up the next. And some times get lit up for a couple of games after that 1 great game. I can't back such a shitty scoring with RISP team right now but I agree with the logic of betting vs the pitcher who just had a great previous game. Why stop at no-hitters and perfect games? Where is the actual line that should be drawn on when it matters and when it doesn't? What if he went 9 and 1/3 and gave up 1 run ?
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RookieBALBOA | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa: Here's a situation for you, Oracle-Rockie kicked your ass last night from what I can see...he actually saw a pattern repeating and there's a good reason for it called human emotional letdown, fatigue, etc. Kinda like when a college football team fails to cover the game after a undefeated season ends or even grown men like the Cubs getting blown out after the Bartman game... All props to Rocky-nice call and you, Oracle, hopefully sold didn't buy too much Facebook... Hoyasaxa, I think you left out a few sports cliches that mean absolutely nothing. Please give me the VALUE of a pitcher throwing a lot of pitches the previous start? Is it worth 0.1 expected runs...0.5...1.0???? Please give me the VALUE of this "human emotional letdown"...please tell me when I should merit it and when I shouldn't based on ACTUAL EMPIRICAL DATA of when a person should have an "emotional letdown".... Basically it boils down to....you guys don't have a clue. But it sure does sound good in a thread.
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RookieBALBOA | 41 |
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Go sign up for his website and you can see them
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HiramKey | 9 |
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God you're dumb.
If you know how to read lines, you can figure out what my plays are. Nevermind, you're all about "Situational Capping 101". If you can't make your own line, how do you know how good the "situation" is? |
RookieBALBOA | 41 |
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If you're going to bet this game now the only play is over, as all of the value has been sucked out of the under.
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Tide4life | 10 |
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1) Roof Open. Rarely will you see the roof open in Arizona with a total under 9.
2) Using 3 starts is meaningless. 3) ERA is a terrible metric. Hope that helps.
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Amp | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RookieBALBOA: Oracle - let's see you grow a pair of balls, and post your plays, with a good writeup, you coward Ha. You're funny. Write-ups are overrated. Because when you have thousands of independent variables all acting on one another all at once, how do you describe what's going to happen. I can't. But I can model it. I won't give you some situational nonsense that doesn't mean squat. So how about instead I give you my predicted lines and total for every game out there today at every possible total? If you can't come up with your own number before the lines are released, your'e toast. The highlighted totals are my lines as compared to the opening totals yesterday, which is when I bet them. Good luck getting them at the same number I did, as most of them have already moved my way. Oh and how's that for balls?
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RookieBALBOA | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RookieBALBOA: Doesn't this always happen? A guy throws a no hitters, and all of the gambling world backs him the next game and loses? Not me. Mi will o against that 100%. Situational capping 101 What if the line were NYM +300 would you still do it? Your situational capping logic stinks. I mean, good thing they counted that fair ball foul to keep Santana's no hitter in tact, otherwise your capping for this game would be completely different.
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RookieBALBOA | 41 |
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This thread will be good when I check back in a month.
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Specimen | 112 |
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You're right in that most people on here spout useless angles such as "if you're not riding the streak, you'd better not go against it".
But I would hope most people don't just piss their money away by taking some of the worst numbers on the bets they do like such as Tor - 135 (when you could've had -125) or ANA -110 (when you could've had -105).
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KingScorpio | 68 |
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If ever this year you find yourself laying -170 with Cincy, the best you can hope for in life is to fall asleep with the open end of a shotgun in your mouth.
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plike112 | 18 |
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I almost stopped reading when I read the word "clutch". Once I hit the word "heart", my eyes were bleeding so I closed the browser.
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EastOakland | 61 |
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