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while you're correct about 5 game chase systems being over rated, a system that wins 93% after only 2 is worth something provided years of backtesting holds up.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 145 |
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At 93% on A B games I would just run this as a 2 game chase and increase unit size temporarily after a B loss. Anyone can play a 2 game chase without too much nail biting I would think.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 145 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bDnews: So far so good... Are you sure? Isn't florida state in trouble if I'm not mistaken? |
bDnews | 701 |
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CHI Bears -6
N.O. Saints -3 (currently at -3.5 but you can buy 1/2 point) OAK Raiders -6 DEN Broncos ML Submit |
bDnews | 29 |
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why take 2 for a time slot? why not 1?
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JEFFTHEHAT | 520 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bDnews: (New Orleans/San Francisco) seems a little random to me for the NFL. I have no back to back games on a single network yet you do. Does this mean we all bet it anyway? |
bDnews | 701 |
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Just to be clear, you're only betting the first half and not the second?
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JEFFTHEHAT | 520 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: Bonus question: If it takes 7 men 7 days to dig 7 holes how long does it take for 1 man to dig 1/2 of a hole? 1/2 a day |
JEFFTHEHAT | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by dallasm: Cleveland (C) today?? I was going to ask the same thing. Some books had them as the fave some the underdog. It was one of those rare times where you could take both sides of a bet and get plus money and win no matter the outcome. |
bDnews | 299 |
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anyone else had to delete a rant they were about to go on?
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CKP22 | 1194 |
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phew
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CKP22 | 1194 |
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BeefMan, if you look at jeff's picks you can see a somewhat obvious pattern to his plays. Its clearly not random.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 365 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bDnews: San Francisco - A San Diego - A NY Yankees - A I thought Arizona was on the banned list? San Diego to win is a fade on Arizona correct? |
bDnews | 299 |
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I would consider paying the extra $$$ on an alternate runline on the D and E bets when the team is super shitty just for peace of mind. That would have kept the Mets loss this year from occurring.
Maybe a rule for any series involving an RPI difference of more than 32 on the D and E bet should use the highest possible alternate runline your book allows as a stop loss. The odds would be horrific but losing is always worse. Just a thought. |
bDnews | 299 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rp-rt: Danrules24, To win a $1000 Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850. I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct? Yes, but risking $22895 to win $1000 seems stupid to me. I would rather valet cars part time for 3 weeks to make that money if I needed it. |
Danrules24 | 682 |
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Quote Originally Posted by NoSoLucky: I'm new to this system so correct me if I'm wrong. Fading STL starting 7/5 after an 8 game road trip, they win 5 straight at home. They were the favs every time. This is a loss, no? Or does the system start later than that date? Who the hell would take STL to lose to MIA and HOU anyway. Nevermind, found my own error. Runline runline runline |
bDnews | 299 |
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I'm new to this system so correct me if I'm wrong. Fading STL starting 7/5 after an 8 game road trip, they win 5 straight at home. They were the favs every time. This is a loss, no? Or does the system start later than that date?
Who the hell would take STL to lose to MIA and HOU anyway. |
bDnews | 299 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Danrules24: That was a crappy way to lose the under. Seriously? You have a closer, use him! I was thinking the same thing. That manager should be fined by his own team. Leaving a pitcher out on the mound because you want to "give him his shot" at a complete game is unprofessional. His job is to win games. He can't believe that 100+ pitch count pitcher whom is starting to give up hits and walks is a better alternative than the closer. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 365 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: CINC clears, might be on to something Degen Don't let it distract you from any NFL systems you might have in the works I'm gonna need all the help I can get. I don't think I'll be as lucky as I have been so far in the preseason (11-1 as of right now) |
DegenGamble | 223 |
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Dan and cappervin
I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way. My point in post #166 was pointing out that INDIVIDUAL teams themselves do not score in the first most the time. This does not mean to take NO every single time as you would lose 50% of the time. Remember, its easier to play bad than it is to play good. This is why I think taking NO when bad teams play each other is a safer bet than taking YES when 2 good teams face off. I guess what I'm trying to say is I would have more confidence in taking HOU vs TEX (worst 2) as a NO than COL vs STL (best 2) as a YES. Maybe I'm wrong. HOU vs TEX: (so far): 7 NO to 3 YES and never lost a 3 game chase as a NO bet this year. COL vs STL: 3 NO to 0 YES. They play each other more later... Just some food for thought in my humble opinion. Pitching match ups across 3 games is also a filter I have been trying to implement and have not had the time as of yet. Next season hopefully. |
DegenGamble | 223 |
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