NoSoLucky

Member Since:November 2012
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NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > What would a 1000 unit a year system be worth? > View Post
while you're correct about 5 game chase systems being over rated, a system that wins 93% after only 2 is worth something provided years of backtesting holds up.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > What would a 1000 unit a year system be worth? > View Post
At 93% on A B games I would just run this as a 2 game chase and increase unit size temporarily after a B loss. Anyone can play a 2 game chase without too much nail biting I would think.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Prime Time Chase > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by bDnews:
So far so good...

Are you sure? Isn't florida state in trouble if I'm not mistaken?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > *****Parlay Players United***** > View Post
CHI Bears -6
N.O. Saints -3 (currently at -3.5 but you can buy 1/2 point)

OAK Raiders -6
DEN Broncos ML

Submit

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Somebody stop me! > View Post
why take 2 for a time slot? why not 1?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Prime Time Chase > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by bDnews:
(New Orleans/San Francisco) 


seems a little random to me for the NFL. I have no back to back games on a single network yet you do. Does this mean we all bet it anyway?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Somebody stop me! > View Post
Just to be clear, you're only betting the first half and not the second?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Math question for the day! > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:
Bonus question:

If it takes 7 men 7 days to dig 7 holes how long does it take for 1 man to dig 1/2 of a hole?  

1/2 a day

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Magna Carta - (632-0) Since 2011 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dallasm:
Cleveland (C) today??

I was going to ask the same thing. Some books had them as the fave some the underdog. It was one of those rare times where you could take both sides of a bet and get plus money and win no matter the outcome.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Post All-Star Home System > View Post
anyone else had to delete a rant they were about to go on?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Post All-Star Home System > View Post
phew

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > OVER/ UNDER chase system! > View Post
BeefMan, if you look at jeff's picks you can see a somewhat obvious pattern to his plays. Its clearly not random.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Magna Carta - (632-0) Since 2011 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by bDnews:
San Francisco - A
San Diego - A
NY Yankees - A


I thought Arizona was on the banned list? San Diego to win is a fade on Arizona correct?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Magna Carta - (632-0) Since 2011 > View Post
I would consider paying the extra $$$ on an alternate runline on the D and E bets when the team is super shitty just for peace of mind. That would have kept the Mets loss this year from occurring.

Maybe a rule for any series involving an RPI difference of more than 32 on the D and E bet should use the highest possible alternate runline your book allows as a stop loss. The odds would be horrific but losing is always worse. Just a thought.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Official (?) RPI 2013 system > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by rp-rt:

Danrules24,


To win a $1000


Game-1, -195, $1950 to win $1000, if "A" game loses then


Game-2, -200, $5900 to win $2950, if "B" game loses then


Game-3, -170, $15045 to win $8850.


I believe the max MLB bet in Vegas is $5000, That means you would have to spread your "C" game bet over 4 separate bets to make a $1000 profit on the series. Does this seem correct?


Yes, but risking $22895 to win $1000 seems stupid to me. I would rather valet cars part time for 3 weeks to make that money if I needed it.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Magna Carta - (632-0) Since 2011 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by NoSoLucky:
I'm new to this system so correct me if I'm wrong. Fading STL starting 7/5 after an 8 game road trip, they win 5 straight at home. They were the favs every time. This is a loss, no? Or does the system start later than that date?

Who the hell would take STL to lose to MIA and HOU anyway.

Nevermind, found my own error. Runline runline runline

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > The Magna Carta - (632-0) Since 2011 > View Post
I'm new to this system so correct me if I'm wrong. Fading STL starting 7/5 after an 8 game road trip, they win 5 straight at home. They were the favs every time. This is a loss, no? Or does the system start later than that date?

Who the hell would take STL to lose to MIA and HOU anyway.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 2nd half road FADE system > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by puppetm716:

It has been an amazing run for all the crap teams which have become so pesky when going up against these systems.


Hou, Minn, Cwsox you're killing us.


Don't these teams know they are hurting their chances at a higher draft spot? Thats why I like the NFL. When they see no hope in a season they don't try as hard in a game or two so maybe they get a better pick in the draft for next season.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > OVER/ UNDER chase system! > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:


That was a crappy way to lose the under. Seriously? You have a closer, use him!


I was thinking the same thing. That manager should be fined by his own team. Leaving a pitcher out on the mound because you want to "give him his shot" at a complete game is unprofessional. His job is to win games. He can't believe that 100+ pitch count pitcher whom is starting to give up hits and walks is a better alternative than the closer.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT:
CINC clears, might be on to something Degen

Don't let it distract you from any NFL systems you might have in the works

I'm gonna need all the help I can get. I don't think I'll be as lucky as I have been so far in the preseason (11-1 as of right now)

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
Dan and cappervin

I think you guys are looking at it the wrong way. My point in post #166 was pointing out that INDIVIDUAL teams themselves do not score in the first most the time. This does not mean to take NO every single time as you would lose 50% of the time.

Remember, its easier to play bad than it is to play good. This is why I think taking NO when bad teams play each other is a safer bet than taking YES when 2 good teams face off.

I guess what I'm trying to say is I would have more confidence in taking HOU vs TEX (worst 2) as a NO than COL vs STL (best 2) as a YES. Maybe I'm wrong.

HOU vs TEX: (so far): 7 NO to 3 YES and never lost a 3 game chase as a NO bet this year.

COL vs STL: 3 NO to 0 YES. They play each other more later...

Just some food for thought in my humble opinion.

Pitching match ups across 3 games is also a filter I have been trying to implement and have not had the time as of yet. Next season hopefully.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by cofo04:
Just a heads up, Cle/Det is NOT a system play. It is a 4 game series and does not qualify. Just as Tb/Ari was not because it is a 2 game series. 


Not sure if that is true, but that is why I only take the "NO" bets. Remember, even the best team (COL) only scores in the first inning 36% of the time.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
MrUnlucky

A single win is counted when the A,B, or C game gets a win. If "C" gets a loss it counts as a loss for the system as it was the last chance for this 3 game chase system to get a win. This system as of yet doesn't have a loss on the C game.

Essentially all chase systems are betting that a certain outcome will happen once within 3 games. So once you get that win you stop betting until a new series that fits the system rules comes up.

Most people double their bets after a loss to make sure they make money. In a 3 game chase system you should only have to do this twice. But losing a C game can wipe out your bank roll so be careful. If this system were 33-5 and you were betting since the beginning you be losing money.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Live Betting system? > View Post
I also saw that betonline.ag lets you bet on how many homeruns will be hit in individual innings.

0 = -600
1 = +400
2 = +725

Some teams like MIA and SF playing each other would be a pretty safe bet on zero HRs every inning as they are ranked 29 and 30 in HRs. At $100 with $16.67 profit an inning if no HRs are hit in the game you would make $150.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > Live Betting system? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:


Can you give an example of how much the line moves? Let's say a home fave is up 3-0 after 3. ML was -150, what kind ML would the in game line move to?


I would say around -900 for a fave after 3 innings. Maybe worse depending on the book.

An interesting thing some people are doing is betting on slight road underdogs at something like +120. If they score before the fave does, the fave becomes the underdog and you bet that as well. $100 on both +120s means you win $20 no matter what happens.

Go to betonline.ag and click on sportsbook then the red Live Betting button to check it out.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
Best new system on the board in my opinion. 

hou/min win game A and kc/nym win game B. Still undefeated.

NoSoLucky
Soccer > Books for live betting corners in U.S.? > View Post
I would like to start live betting corners, but sites like bet365 restrict U.S.A. membership.  I see many US books have live betting on soccer, but none offer corner bets live that I can see so far. So I thought I would ask.

Anyone know of any US books that take live betting for corners? Thanks for any info.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by flwareagle:
Isn't COL/PIT a Yes play?

PIT is 29.63% for 2013. It must be above 30%.

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > T/R Home/Away Power Rankings > View Post
what about TB?

NoSoLucky
Systems & Strategies > 1st Inning Score Chase System > View Post
I believe HOU/MIN is a play on the NO
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