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Line dropped from +3 @ -125 to +3 @ -110 very quickly. Lots of sharp money on the Ravens coming in late... ...Thoughts? |
si1ly | 110 |
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Thats good enough for me. Lets go Nats.
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si1ly | 37 |
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Any concern the Nats clinched last night and partied the night away... ...I know that motivation is not as big (if at all) an impact in the MLB as compared to the NBA, NFL, etc. But I hangover can't help any athletes peformance. Thoughts? |
si1ly | 37 |
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Thanks for the breakdowns. Any thoughts on the Dodogers and Twins first 5? |
si1ly | 87 |
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Whats your take on the Toronto line? Late game tonight, plus travel?
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si1ly | 57 |
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Great work as ussual. Love STL and ARZ. What are your thoughts on Philly and Clevland. It seems they both have a lot of value. |
si1ly | 80 |
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What your doing SmartVegas aint right and you know what it is, so cut it out, or I will make it known.
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SmartVegas | 32 |
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Good work Si1ly. Sent a freind request. Was hoping you can send me some links on siera/tera that you mentioned in the Sabrmeterics thread. Ive read the stuff on fangrahs but always looking for more... ...btw, great analysis with the mets and regressing moving forward. |
si1ly | 28 |
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Been following for a while, just wanted to say I like your style. I had one question, are large plays a certain number of units and how do they compare to the medium plays? Is it 2 untis a large play, 1 a medium, or 3 a large, 1 a medium? Or does it vary... |
Gordon Gekko | 36 |
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Whats the real difference between xFIP, SIERA, and tERA. Not sure if I should include all or only some in my analysis...
I think K% is great just because those pitchers tend to have the ability to get out of trouble and is feilding independant. I like to play those for 5 innings a lot especially with weak pens...
But Basbeall is great, no emotion or effort or BS there. Just #'s that play out over the course of time...
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si1ly | 97 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Dgretzky69:
love the thread, here's a few thoughts. ERA-FIP (or xFIP/SiERA/whatever) can be a good measure of a pitcher's value compared to public perception.
K% is a better number to look at than K/9, because K/9 depends on outs and is thus fielding dependent. K%, strikeouts/batters faced, is fielding independent. Same goes for BB/9 and BB%. K%-BB% can be a good predictor of ERA
Whats the real difference between xFIP, SIERA, and tERA. Not sure if I should include all or only some in my analysis...
I think K% is great just because those pitchers tend to have the ability to get out of trouble and is feilding independant. I like to play those for 5 innings a lot especially with weak pens...
But Basbeall is great, no emotion or effort or BS there. Just #'s that play out over the course of time... |
si1ly | 97 |
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly:
*** Added Play *** 1:05 EST - Dallas Mavericks -2.5 (-110) Thank you ESPN for this incredibly generous line. The Mavericks are head and shoulders better than New York. If this game was played two weeks ago, Dallas would have been -4.5 or higher. The line opened at -2 and its obvious to me that sharps jumped on it immediately sending it a half point higher. The Mavericks have hit their stride and should continue to roll today. New York hasn't shown me that they can compete with any of the elite teams especially ones with great defenses like Dallas. I don't care how fired up MSG is going to be today - the Mavs are a veteran team and can take it. Melo will be out again. Where is the scoring going to come from? The Turnover Mach-Lin? Amare The Black Hole Stoudomire? Yeah good luck.. Dallas wins 96-85 Hey Si1ly -- Dont post much but wanted to say thank you for your work and your relative point system as well. I get that NY as overvalued due to a lot of public perception, partivcualry given that this is a weekend game and a lot more "public bettors" are around. But I took a look at your point system and it seems the line is pretty fair --> are you making this play based more on Dallas's recent play? I took them at -2 early based on their defense and game at Philly. Just wanted to hear your thoughts |
si1ly | 29 |
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Hey SB -- Ive been following for some time now, but just wanted to post and say thank you for your hard work and insight. Also, I know you mentioned you posted a thread on how to bet the NBA in the last few months. I tried finding it but was unable. You mind sending me to the correct link.
Monk |
smartbets | 93 |
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Has there been any picks...i tired looking through, but didnt spot anything.
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KineProfessor | 214 |
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Fairly new and looking for some good threads to follow. Any recommendations?
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Monk2334 | 5 |
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Can I ask about the angle on SC?
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poolman11 | 56 |
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Quote Originally Posted by poolman11:
HEY ROOKIE BOASTING THAT 5-0 -1 YTD HOW BOUTCHA THE OLD FASHION NUMBER IS 100%% WINNERSPOST EM BRO!!!! I GOT BANNED I THINK??/
Say it aint so |
ssnake919 | 20 |
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Pool, added you as a friend, youre blog is viewable, and thanks for your hard work. |
poolman11 | 155 |
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Poolman, hardly ever post, but wanted to let you know your thread is appreciated. I need me a source for some insider information
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poolman11 | 155 |
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I've been using this forum for a few months now, but I rarely if ever post. I enjoy reading good analysis and seeing the picks of good cappers, but it is hard.
GIlmo -- You're one of the few I do look at, along with Si1ly, and one who shall not be named. I'd like to hear from you, or anyone who are some of the other strong MLB cappers as well as those that thrive in other sports. I'm always looking to read and learn and when the time comes start my own thread, which hopefully will bring people some insight.
Monk |
GiLmo574 | 58 |
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