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Quote Originally Posted by TDHCentral: MM- we realize that, but the system teaches us to look at games where lines might be a bit off. Obviously, it isn't a system play. I know what the SYSTEM is....been playing different angles/variations of it for 10+ years...just don't want "newbies" thinking it's a "play" when it more than likely was a coin flip especially when u look at conf records of both teams...at the end of the day it boils down to finding value......this game didn't present value enough on either side to warrant a play IMO.
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KineProfessor | 1966 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ryno23: 'post' system 1-0 Illinois Chicago +10.5 gl ryno Be CAREFUL ryno and faithful followers like myself....Conf tourney games are a WHOLE different motivation angle and system should NOT apply to those. Tread lightly..... MM
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KineProfessor | 1966 |
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1QTR 72
2QTR 73.5 3QTR 72.5 4QTR 72
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BostonFan | 55 |
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The_Prodigy | 6 |
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JonEphotBall | 3 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor: I might have to let this thread bet all my system plays way down and then go back huge the other way! Best of luck to you all - more importantly than the system is understanding the flaws in how lines are made and how to exploit them - also works well with betting mma as well as a few other sports as well so that was your reasoning all along for posting this system 3 or 4 years ago huh? LOL....will be watching these lines closely as we get deeper into Feb. to do the same I guess! MM
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KineProfessor | 1966 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 714cuzzin: Whats so dumb?? I never imply a win or lose So what does "LOL Niners Backers....Crickets" imply then????? Rubbing it in after 2H kickoff for TD to them hopefully costs you some $ in the end for justice to be served. For the record I'm on Balt +4.5....but I hope you're on them for ML and they lose by 4. MM |
714cuzzin | 32 |
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Quote Originally Posted by trewswell: i know he is i played this the last two years, but i dont know how to get to it in the internet. I he the same as kempton? Trewswell...you've misspelled it 3 times! It's not that hard....go to the website. KENPOM The stat guy's name is Ken Pomeroy. You can see the rankings on the front page. From there if you want more in depth analysis, you have to pay his monthly subscription fee. MM
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KineProfessor | 1966 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko: Have some time today as I've capped some of the games and have leans: Not posted plays but if you action junkies are looking for wager action, I like the following: Until Louisville rights the ship, Pittsburgh looks like the Play, Panthers +6/6.5 Agree with a great capper who likes the over in Marquette game..too bad we are on the different spectrums of the Louisville game.. Drexel minus the points...I have them in a couple of exotics..ML specifically.. Just some food for thought
That wouldn't be Mr. Nropp would it?? :) I agree with both of you for what's it's worth! MM
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Gordon Gekko | 70 |
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Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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KineProfessor | 1966 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor: If you have been watching closely, the principles have been making money since Christmas week (coincides with when Kenpom's rankings have enough data to be taken seriously). Strongest when the spread is 8 or more and the favorite is ranked 200th or worst in Kenpom. Hopefully you are using the principles to look at games you wouldn't normally consider. Thanks Kine for replying! I couldn't agree with you more...the principle of the theory is what matters the most! And I prefer not to even call it that "S" word everyone seems to overuse anyway. Thanks again!
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Spitfire15 | 14 |
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Forgot one name...Stuckey! Where's he been this year? Saw him on the NFL forum but not here yet.
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Spitfire15 | 14 |
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Spit -- I'll probably start looking for "system" spot plays in late Jan. early Feb., because the last 2 years those "pre-system" plays seemed to hit quite frequently too.
Who to tail now in hoops??? Tough sledding so far this year....nropp has always been solid and he was around earlier, but haven't seen him for awhile after he hit a cold streak and the usual idiots on here bashed the crap out of him. Other than him, Jfen31 is fairly disciplined and has decent analysis but with mixed results so far. GWarner is out to another good start for the 3rd year in a row, but makes a lot of plays. Haven't seen the old vets around yet like LasVegasLord, KineProf, Bodio, Sharpstick or Rush in here, but maybe now that CFB over, we'll be graced by their presence soon. A newbie that joined 2 months ago worth keeping an eye might be Captainpap....he's out to 65% clip on 80 plays already. BOL bro!
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Spitfire15 | 14 |
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Yes it was Kine Professor that originally posted the "system".
A guy by the handle "beaverfan" ran with it the last few years posting it but tweaked it into his own by playing only 1h plays and adjusting some other data points that he felt increased the odds. But he also started it earlier in the year too, which goes against the original basis of Kine's theory. Kine's original system usually started around Feb. 15th because the fundamental basis of the theory was that was the part of the season that poor teams playing at home favored by 6.5 or more over equally poor opponents, lacked the focus and determination to lay their oppononents away. Usually by this time of season, both teams are in the bottom half of their conference and no chance of winning it to advance to post season, so they could be "mailing in" the rest of their season by then. And the theory was to only look at teams ranked 180 or lower in kenpom.
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Spitfire15 | 14 |
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here here
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Vegas187 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Eaglespts: If your going to post, why not post so others have time to get the game in, this bullshit, if your not going to post timely then do us all a favor and don't post at all. Who pissed in your Cheerios this morning man?!?!?!?! Tree posted his play with plenty of time! And regardless of what most of you "tailers" think, guys like Tree, BigEast, Rush, etc... don't post their plays to give morons like you some great insight so you can have an edge. They consider their selections carefully, put much thought into them, and monitor the spread, public perception, and in some cases the energy of each team leading up to close to kick off. Something parasites like you wouldn't understand how to do yourself...so either sit back in silence on this forum and blindly tail or put some thought and research into it yourself and try to make an educated play on your own! MM
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TREE88 | 56 |
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Nittany Lions -2
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Henryb11 | 30 |
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BOL Damon...leaning Penn St myself even as Badger fan.
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Damon102 | 31 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LarryWayne10: Archie should open a sperm bank. |
ThomasStanley | 40 |
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just sayin? really? virtually a "pick'em" game and you think these million dollar athlete's would fold to lose a game for sake of a "line"? you seriously need to reconsider this gambling hobby we all love if you think that....momentum in the NFL has always led to games like this where someone feels "moosed" or "fixed"...one team lost their edge and the other had all the momentum, that's it!
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DirtNap | 12 |
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