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I forgot to post that the play will be for 2 units.
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MannyDaMammoth | 2 |
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2-3-1 last week: -1.3 units
My plays got fucked over last week when Maxwell decided to throw 4 interceptions against Boise, Spurrier decided to let Shaw throw all game instead of running Lattimore, and 5 dimes only offered a prop bet for Lacy and none of the Tide's other backs. The BC/Miami under play was just bad capping by me but still overall I feel as if I was extremely unlucky in a rather surprising and eventful week 1. Nevertheless, I could have played better. If I hadn't pussied out of laying the two touchdowns with Bama I'd be up in units right now, regardless, of how everything else turned out. On the positive side, I'd say I was pretty accurate overall in assessing how various components of each team I bet on would perform and that was without having seen them play. From here on out it should only get easier. My only play so far is NC State - 5 against UCONN. I hear this line opened up with the Wolf Pack as dogs, which is absolutely absurd. The opening line and even the line I have is inflated due to the Huskies having a seemingly good performance against the Minutemen and NC State having a seemingly bad one against Tennessee. A number of factors need to be considered however:
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MannyDaMammoth | 2 |
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I like the Florida pick. People say they sucked against Bowling Green but that was pretty much a high profile tryout sessions for Florida, with two rotating QBs and a whole stable of backs getting at least decent rotation against a solid defense. Both Florida's pass rush and pass defense looked good in the game and one of Bowling Green's touchdowns came on a play in which everyone seemed to have thought the ball was dead and thus weren't trying that hard to defend. In addition, Florida actually got to work out some their kinks last week by playing a game while T&M sat on the sidelines with wasted energy and adrenaline. This will be a play for me this week but I was wondering if anyone thought the over would be a better play. Texas A&M is returning their entire line I believe, has a decent running back in Christine, and a decent receiver in Swope. The total is only set at 51.
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MEGALOCKS | 47 |
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NC state is probably my top play for this week. I'm also one of the few only other people who picked Tennessee over NC State opening week. Ucon's run game is overrated and their new QB proved he sucked. Glennon despite last week's performance is an NFL lvl QB and has shown that he can gash questionable secondaries. I can't believe this line ever opened up with State being an underdog; I wish I had grabbed it. Still, anything under 7 should be good at the least.
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RealUnger | 4 |
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2-3-1 (-1.3U)
Not the start I was hoping for. Feel like I had some bad look in both the Boise State Michigan and Alabama games. My prop failed because Lacy wasn't used as the primary rusher but Alabama marched up and down the field just as predicted. I would have accounted for other backs receiving a bulk of the carries but unfortunately for me Lacy was the only rusher available for a prop bet so I rolled with it. Still this wasn't that bad when considering all the games the books must have cleaned up on this week, so I'll take my loss in stride.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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My reasoning behind the two Alabama plays are this. Even though I'm pretty confident Alabama covers the spread, I'm 100% confident they move the ball on the ground at will. Eddie Lacy unless injured is guaranteed at least 100 yards rushing this game. Furthermore, if you're of the opinion that Alabama will severely outclass Michigan then it goes w/o saying that you think they will trump them in first downs made.
Now take a scenario where Alabama is up by 17 in the 4th. If Denard Robinson runs for a touchdown because someone slipped on a Banana Peel, then the prop bet is still safe even if the spread is fucked. I'm probably being paranoid but that pretty much explains my reasoning for taking these two bets over the spread.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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PLAY 6: prop bet Alabama -4 1st downs (1U) to win .9
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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apparently there is a cap on this prop bet.
I'm now risking 1U to win .69
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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looks like my over is gonna be killed.
I've been waiting for this prop bet all week. PLAY 5: 2U on Eddie Lacey rushing for over 89.5 yards.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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damn't it -.1 but I'm sure most of you got that.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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Correction |
MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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-.9 units so far.
PLAY 4: Miami/Boston college under 44 -105 (1U) Boston College has a very good defense even w/o Kuechly and Miami has a good defense as well. Miami returns only 4 on offense and have a mediocre QB at best. Similarly Boston College has a medicore QB and a # of key players on offense have been hit by the injury bug. In addition to all this, BC doesn't have a very good kicker. The game will be played and all they have to rely on is their running back (the one who isn't inured). I think Miami will play to the run as well considering they will be working things out on offense. Both teams have very good defensive lines and of course BC has a good linebacking corps.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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1-1-1 to start the year. Might look to post more plays this Saturday.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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also looks as if I should have said fuck the suspensions and rode with UCF. Also Akron's QB looked raw as hell and he looks to have a good receiver to throw it to too! I'll be looking at them against the spread down the line.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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also looks as if I should have said fuck the suspensions and rode with UCF. Also Akron's QB looked raw as hell and he looks to have a good receiver to throw it to too! I'll be looking at them against the spread down the line.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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(sigh...)
I hate losing because of kneels. 0-1 so far.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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I'm on SC and with the way that Shaw is playing I'd say his backup could possibly out perform him. In other news, Rodgers looks like shit as expected.
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Bank_on_it | 333 |
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I already capped this game long ago but I wanted to tell you I really respect and appreciate your writeups. To say that they are extensive would be an understatement but it's also worth noting that they all revolve around a conference that gets significantly less exposure than the major ones we're used to seeing. I feel I can read your writeups and cap games off that information alone.
Good stuff man.
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MWCFbAnalysis | 25 |
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A lot of people think the Titans will upset the Pats week 1. I'm not one of them but I'm just letting you know.
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fumble_rooskie | 5 |
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lean on UCF - 23.5 @ Akron. Would be a play for me but I have no idea if UCF comes out flat or not due to suspensions. Second half bet on this game sure looks good atm.
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MannyDaMammoth | 22 |
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