Lucrative

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Lucrative
MLB Betting > MLB 6/2/16 Red is the color of the day > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by ArtSchlichterJr:
  It's always easy to pick out the life long mush gambling poster's because they have no money left to bet so they relish seeing everyone else lose so they dont feel as they are the only loser's in the game. Because people who gamble with money not their mouth respect karma and would never laugh at a gambler when they lose. Case in point this poster no money to gamble let me go laugh at a poster who is PLUS money for the year.. A mush hates a winner and I would bet every penny I have this guy is a mush and his book bought his kids cars on the back of his picks.. A real gambler does not poke the bear only a mush.. Hello Mush it aint all bad at least you can air bet the rest of your life..


 


Yikes. Mushy McMushstein was just undressed


Lucrative
College Basketball > Syracuse 76 UNC 72 > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by ADAMOX:
Fair enough.  Have fun on Saturday laying that chalk.  You can use it to outline your dead wager lol


 Where did he say he laying chalk with UNC? You asked for how you could be wrong, and he offered an objective opinion. You seem a little combative, guy.


You started the thread; why don't you tell us how you are right? Anyone can spout a blanket statement and look like a genius if it works out.


 


Lucrative
College Basketball > Oregon will beat Duke easily > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by Da_Oracle:
No love for Dana Altman?  Not saying he's Coach K, but coming from other coaches around the country, Altman is one of the best


 


No. Not in this case. Not in the NCAA tourney. You take K all day. Everyday. Hands down. Ha, you get my point.


Look, I cant stand him either. But this guy OWNS the refs. It's amazing the fear he puts in them. It's amazing the amount of physicality that Plumlee gets away with as the lone big-man down low. Not to mention Grayson Allen. He gets the most he can out of them, and he has a way of getting the most out of his players.


It just is what it is.


Lucrative
College Basketball > Oregon will beat Duke easily > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by jrgumpert:


Oregon certainly didn't impress in that last game and Dukie is just coming into form. They are tried and true in the big dance, that coach alone is worth a few buckets. We'll see, GL


 


Duke is just coming into form?  By coming into form do you mean squeaking by UNCW and Yale. What adversity these guys have faced.


Totally agree on the coach though. Head and shoulders advantage.


I think you get a little value with Oregon here as the betting public just saw Oregon struggle to pull away from a team who isn't as much on the national radar (but should be, they are a good team). Not to mention the fact that the PAC12 was obliterated and everyone is down on the conference.


In terms of XOs Oregon really spreads you out and attacks the basket. If you leave space, they will find it and get to the rim. This does not bode well for a team that plays terrible defense.


Just my opinion. I see a little value with Oregon where should be favored by over 2 possessions.


Lucrative
College Basketball > Indiana vs. North Carolina > View Post

It doesn't take much action at all to move a NCCAB line. Nothing in comparison to NFL, NCAAF, etc.


 


Chasing line movements will leave you asking where it all went wrong. If it was as easy as watching line movements, RLM, etc we would all be very wealthy.


Lucrative
College Basketball > Need some help on NCAA Title Hedge and the proper way > View Post
Really don't think I could be more confused.

Lucrative
College Basketball > HUGE FUTURE PLAY - NCAA TOURNEY > View Post
You left about $4,000 on the table.

Lucrative
College Basketball > Cinderella > View Post

IMO, it's going to be a chalky dance this year.


 


Cinderella upset I would be watching is UNCW over Duke. UNCW is playing with nothing to lose. One of the tougher 13 seeds out there catching one of the weaker 4 seeds. Keatts carries over the Pitino style pressure that can bother an already non-deep Duke team. Ingram will eat, but IMO it's a good chance of an upset.


SFA may be able to give WVU a tough game. The opening spread indicates it as well.


I think Dayton has the pieces to be the upset of MSU and make a mini-run. Same situation with Zaga, First year in while Zaga has zero expectations. It makes them dangerous. Gonzaga are not exactly 'Cinderella' teams; however they are higher seeds that can make a run. Regardless, Seton Hall gets bounced 1st round. They won their Super Bowl winning the Big East tourney. Flat spot city for them...


As for the F4 I would be shocked to see anyone over a 4 seed in, Maybe Maryland, but that region is a beast...


 



 


 


Lucrative
College Basketball > Cinderella > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by Ds0589:
Committee did a horrible job with seeding. Protects the Indianas and Kentuckys too much. If Stony Brook was playing any other team, Id give them a chance. Same with Chattanooga. I just think Indiana and Kentucky have too much talent. I like UALR to win at least a game at maybe beat Iowa State. That game will be much different styles. I could see Baylor going on a deep run too...I feel like everyone is gonna be picking Yale in Rhode Island, but its a bad matchup for the Bulldogs. Also with Baylor pissed about Georgia States 3 last year. 


 



Protects Indiana and Kentucky? They possibly have to play EACH OTHER in the second round; hard to see that as protection. That seems to be a tough round of 32 matchup for either side. Not to mention a Kenpom seeding of (2) and ended up a (4) seed for UK...


 


Protection? Oh yeah, not to mention a Sweet 16 possible matchup with UNC for whomever advances out of the Indiana/UK game...


I wouldn't call that protection. I would call that getting fisted.


 


Lucrative
College Basketball > Colonial championship > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by soothsayer13:




Chosen


Couple things favor the Seahawks in my opinion. The first game Wilmington I believe was down something like 25 to 7 and came roaring back despite being on the road. The second game Hofstra came back after being down big but Wilmington squandered a seven point lead with two minutes left. Pretty evenly matched teams but Wilmington slightly better. 


Secondly, I am worried Hofstra had their Super Bowl yesterday against William and Mary. Sounds crazy to say that but they obsessed over their loss to William and Mary last year. Possible they come out flat to start the game.


Hofstra has no depth but they really don’t foul much so the only person that probably gets in foul trouble is there center who is a double double machine. The no depth issue probably won’t come into play but is still a risk factor. Hofstra will absolutely lose the turnover battle and Hofstra recently has been very shaky in that department. Seahawks will pounce on that. William and Mary turned them over 17 times yesterday.


A case for Hofstra is they will win the free-throw battle handsomely. Probably will outscore them by 15 to 20 points at the line. Certain players on the Seahawks need to stay out of foul trouble but they do have a propensity for getting themselves in trouble. That’s my big worry in this game and the biggest selling point for Hofstra.


Also, Hofstra will have the best player on the court and if he gets in the zone he could win this game by himself. They need to hold Green to 20 points or less. If he gets 25+ Hofstra probably wins this one.


Overall, I would have set the line at -2 in favor of Wilmington. Should be a great game between the clear top two teams in this league all year.


 



 


 Great read.


 


Same side. Hofstra played a furious game with W&M yesterday. There were a ton of swings and it was an emotional win. UNCW's pressing attack may wear down a not-so-deep Hofstra side.


Public perception of the more 'known' team in Hofstra give the UNCW bettor a few points in this one. I'm with you, I would have made UNCW a very slight favorite on the spread. My big worry with UNCW is their tendency to NOT close games. They lost several game this year in that fashion...


 


Either way it should be a great watch. Good luck man!


Lucrative
College Basketball > week 3 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by GoodTimes_SD:



Troy +7

So Miss +12

Idaho St +10.5

No Colorado +7

North AZ +11.5

So. Utah +9.5



System went 2-6 today (I missed the Troy game somehow, so luckily 2-5 for me).. Those game were real bad though. Losing games didn't even have a chance and were blow outs. Lucky I hit all my other bets and still ended up +12.5 Units tonight. Were these true system plays and just a bad night? Wondering why Ryno didn't play today. I see a trend in here from the short time I've been following.. when Rynos playing the systems profiting, when he's not it's losing. Same goes for AJs. Just my observation. Thanks for the picks regardless J-Walk. 

BOL on your futures. 


 


If you think it matters on who posts the system plays you need to find a new endeavor. Also, it should be only three burning bags in your synopsis, guy.


Lucrative
College Basketball > week 3 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by j-walk:



You gotta remember there's a theory and reasoning behind the system.  It's not just random kenpom rankings and lines.



The idea is that when 2 bad teams who's regular seasons are basically lost, play against eachother, the road team is easier to keep focused because the coach has more control of them.  (Travel, hotels etc.)  But once conference tournament play starts it's every teams last chance and final hope to get to the big dance, so everyone is focused and ready.  Therefore the system cannot be used at that point.


 



 


What's so frustrating here is that a good portion of the posters in this thread have ZERO idea that this is the entire premise of the system. It's one of the most transparent, simple 'systems' to grasp and posters will still question the concept of it. It's amazing the amount of comments that arise here when it as easy as submit it and go on with your day. No capping, no analyzing. Let the proven record do it's work.


Lucrative
College Basketball > system wk 1 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by hiawatha999:
While Coppin fits the system, a word of caution.  Norfolk St has a lot to play for. They are trying to be the #1 seed in their conference tournament and are very good at home. They will not be letting up here.  It's a lot of wood to chop but their interest is high.


Coppin State is technically NOT a system play as it is not in a normally lined conference (the system says that teams must be from a conference that normally lines all their respective games).

That said, I believe Ryno has tweaked the system before and used teams from normally non-spread lined conferences. Regardless of what a team has to play for, etc is irrelevant in the eyes of the system btw. If a team fits, it fits. The plays can be hard to swallow, look terrible to the 'eye test' bettor, etc. But, the record speaks for itself. 





Lucrative
College Basketball > UNC threw that game? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Luckydan:
NC games don't have to be rigged as along as the current coach is still employed. Never has a coach with so much won so little when it really counts. And not just at NC either. Decent guy with questionable coaching abilities. OMO.


GL


 


^^^This.


 


Roy Williams has been (and likely will continue to be to some degree) a great recruiter. That said, it really isn't that hard to recruit to programs like Kansas and UNC. The names do the selling. The only point I will give him is that the 'looming' potential sanctions have hurt the recruiting process. But that should have nothing to do with this team. It is likely the most talented roster in the country...


The bottom line is that this new era of basketball has left Roy and other dinosaurs in the dust. He can't relate to new recruits, and he cant work with the idea of the one and done. It creates a stigma, and word spreads.


He is hands down one of the most overrated XOs coach in the game. The guy is literally a deer in headlights. My church league coach would have fed the post last night after Duke's front was in foul trouble. The bigs would have ATE. It was a blunder beyond explanation. The no TO call is moot; they should not have been in that position as time expired regardless.


Next coach @ UNC will not be from the Carolina tree.


 


Shaka Smart.  


Lucrative
College Basketball > system wk 1 > View Post

Thanks for taking the time to post


Lucrative
College Basketball > Potentially An Unstopabble System Yo! > View Post
Nelly's gotta a system up in hurr

Lucrative
College Basketball > wk 3 > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by BarneysDad:
Curious why Quinnipiac is not making the cut here. Iona 1-6 ATS on 1 or less days rest this year and when the total is set between 145 and 149.5  they are 0-3 ATS this year and 2-5 last 3. Quinnipiac is 2-0 this year when the total is as mentioned above and 5-1 last 3 years. Iona AVG 76.4 there last 5 and 80.8 at home and Quinnipiac AVG 70.4 their last 5 and 68.9 on the road


 


It's not a capping system. It's based on a system using KenPom parameters on certain road underdogs. The system is covered in previous threads.


Throw rankings, injuries, ATS, situations, revenge, mascots, home court out of the window. It's simply hold your nose and click and hope for the best.


Lucrative
College Basketball > POUND TOWSON > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by flutie:
Towson is o the road against a brutal Drexel team. 


The line opened at -1 for Towson and it is currently -3.5 on Towson.



At BREAKFAST WITH MY MOM this morning we concluded that Towson will win this game. 






 


 


Fixed it.


Lucrative
College Basketball > Clemson +10 > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by Kobe_V24:
also u guys do no public does not always lose... so just because its a high public bet that should not be your reasoning to jump ship..... clem has been competitive in most of the games they have played vs top 50 teams.... they arent amazing away but virginia is not the offensive juggernots from passed.... they still good defensivly... but i think the plus 10 is the right side to be one.... this game resembles a duke vs cuse game like last night


The public does win; they win often. This is true. That said, you are buying Clemson at an all time high. They are not sneaking up on anyone at this point. Public perception of Clemson is robbing you of essential points in a spread where in all likelihood you should be getting 12-15 points. It's also a terrible spot. You are in a huge letdown spot with a team who has won their big games in a friendly environment just down the road. Clemson beat an ordinary defensive team in the likes of Duke and Miami at home. I hate to use the word desperate, but they will be encountering a defensive minded UVA team who needs a good win.


I also don't thing UVA has ever been considered an offensive juggernaut by any means.


GL either way. Just looking at the situational angle that is key in betting college hoops.


Lucrative
College Basketball > Clemson +10 > View Post

You couldn't be buying at a more all time high. This is the definition of buy low/sell high spot for UVA.


Just a thought.


Top' o the knife line. At less then 3 possessions UVA would be a banger. Four plus is a little too much to bite. That said, this thing looks like a UVA blowout in a huge letdown spot for Clemson on the road after the hype... 


Lucrative
General Discussion > What's the best seafood place you've eaten at in America? > View Post

Personally, local seafood bars and oyster bars are the way to go experience the best seafood.


A few of the better ones:


Sunnyside Oyster Bar in Williamston, NC. Old School Southern dive.


Pearlz Oyster Bar in Charleston SC. Another cool spot there is Leon's Fine Poultry and Oysters. Little hipster, but good. Grilled oysters.


Tadich Grill in San Fran.


Really want to get a chance to get to Maine for local Lobster rolls.



Lucrative
General Discussion > What's the best seafood place you've eaten at in America? > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by canovsp:
Growing up in Louisiana there are as many seafood/creole restaurants as there are McDonalds. And most of them are 1 star or 2 star when it comes to price but 4 star and 5 star when it comes to quality. Sure there are the big time restaurants like K Paul's (RIP) and Commander's Palace that are great but if you go into the suburbs of New Orleans you will only pay a half or third of the price of the big boys.

There are to many to name.


 


To many to name


Last there, we tried a few local places outside of the Quarter. Jacques-Imo's and a few others.


For more mainstream ( in the French Quarter) I was actually a fan of Galatoire's and Mr. B's. Their BBQ shrimp is off the hook.


Lucrative
General Discussion > Favorite travel destinations in Europe > View Post

Tourists or no tourists, Paris is a must.


Def a big fan of the French and Italian Riviera's. You can easily backpack from Nice~Monaco~Genoa~Cinque Terre. Great scenery, good drinks, and better food. Two cultures in a few days is possible. Cinque Terre has increased in popularity over the past few years, but it's still an off the beaten track spot.


Salzburg in Austria is great spot. Can go from there to Munich. Beer halls and scenery. Location of the Sound of Music through that pass. I didn't dance in any daisy fields or anything, but you could after a few liters.


Didn't get a chance to make Croatia a few years back. That would be next stop if I was on that side of the pond.


 



Lucrative
College Football > NCAA wk 5 > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by gmanusc2001:



Think we are seeing some backing for CMU based on this being NIU's 3rd straight road game, the first 2 being tuff battles with P5 teams....

although NIU the better team on paper, tough to keep up the intensity here.

I was actually gonna give the chips a look here, but hoping for closer to 7



Love your stuff, as always MEGA....keep it up!


 


Nice post and point. It's tough to maintain intensity after being on the road vs two power conference teams (let alone OSU). I think you hit the nail on the head here, line is set on a flat/letdown spot vs CMU on the road. Hard to maintain the intensity after two close fought battles. That said, it's hard to bet against a team who literally could have won both @ OSU and BC.


 


Great thread again! Good to see rational thoughts presented on both sides on games. Rare these days around here...


 


GL this week.


Lucrative
NFL Betting > And Now You Bang the Niners > View Post

You can argue all day with the eye test and the better team bettors. They won't get it...


Is it a risky wager? By all means. Will it be a popular pick around the water cooler? You will be laughed down the hallway...


That said, as a situational bettor it doesn't get much better. Classic flat spot coming off a prime time game. Best time to buy low/sell high. Hopefully public perception will push the line to a manageable number to play 49ers at home.


Other then the ole sandwich spot, this is another great angle to play. Win or lose, these spots are the ways to profit long-term.


GL


 


 


Lucrative
NFL Betting > All the "Sharps" were on KC.... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:



Yeah, I see what you are trying to say, but somewhat still disagree.  If KC +7 is considered "Sharp" because of the value, then GB at -5.5 or even -5 at some places would also be considered "Sharp"



Yes, GB only won the game by 10...but this game was never in doubt until GB called off the troops on D in the 4th qtr.



When there is 1 Primetime game on a Monday or Sunday night...there is no "Sharp" or "Square" play....and until people finally realize that they are already losing 


 


IMO, this is not the case. As madisonmike pointed out above, the initial line of -7 GB was a bit inflated due to public perception. At this point, respected bettors played the +7 on their perceived value of getting KC on a key number. Due to this response, books adjusted their number to where it should have been set in the -5/-5.5 range. At this point (in terms of some prof bettors), there was no value either direction.


The final score is inconsequential. Some groups believed that the -7 was a bit inflated and grabbed the best number out there. Regardless of the final score, many (not all) would jump on this same number again.


Regardless of the final score, playing -5/5.5 either direction and you are Joe Public. It is what it is.


 



 


 


Lucrative
NFL Betting > All the "Sharps" were on KC.... > View Post

The square/sharp talk has been going on for years on forums like these. It's an easy way to make one feel justified in their respective wager.


The bottom line is that it's all about the number and market entry. I hate to use the term sharp, but if there was a professional money on this game it came in at one number: Kansas City +7. Sharp money isn't about betting the team, the quarterback, or defenses. It's simply about grabbing the BEST number at a spread they feel there was value. They do not play teams, they play numbers.


In this case, there were groups out there that felt that getting a TD with KC was value. Win some, lose some. They do not care if it's a bad play on paper, or even a lopsided loss. It's all about perceived value, and grabbing a TD in this case was the number. Did it pan out? No. Will they play a similar number like that again? You bet.


Was a KC the play for these groups at 6 or below? Negative. This was where the term square can be used an appropriate term. Anyone grabbing a bad number is a square, no matter what the situation. Who takes +5.5 when they could have had +7? Everyone takes bad numbers; I take bad numbers. Most do not have the capabilities to shop various markets. Taking a bad number makes us as square as it comes. Betting KC at a bad number makes one more of a square then Joe Public on a public bet.


All just my opinion. Regardless, just play one's way and don't worry about the cliché terms that are out there.


 



Lucrative
College Football > NCAA wk 4 > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by whatupkiddo:
any thoughts for oregon state vs stanford?


 


Already addressed a couple of pages back...


IMO, it's a great situational spot to catch Stanford coming off a signature win vs USC. Not to mention the look-ahead spot with Zona on deck at home.


Classic sandwich/letdown spot tonight


 


Good thread.


Lucrative
College Football > Where to find play-by-play > View Post

I am partial to the Yahoo sports app for play-by-plays.


Lucrative
College Football > *** Week 1 NCAA football *** > View Post
*Could be the head coach
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