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Quote Originally Posted by Niners13:
eli or alex...here's a prop for you, Will Manning throw int.......... -215 Will Alex smith throw int ...... +105 yes to both , one way or another both throw picks , better to be lucky than good , one of them might be a meaningless hm at the end of the half or end of the game thats picked .. bradshaw under rushing yards , makes some big plays/1st down plays recieving though .. under rushing is pretty strong , take the under . if you listed every prop I would go about 70 + % with them .. all it takes is the $ to back it .. that is always the key , the $ , knowing is the ez part . knowing and actually doing ? 2 different worlds my man . and no it would not be 70+ because I would be taking - 200 and up seems to ez on the surface props .. manning will pass for sooo many yrds you will not even be able to find a prop on o/u passing yards .. marinate on that 1 that should tell you something more than something prop wise .. giants baby ! think peyton is coaching his bro and fliing him with positive energy ? his family ? you bet he is ! |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
Lakecommish come on man and sub consciuosly the public is thinking how are the Giants getting pts and jumoing on them.Are u new to this.always 2ways to look at this the come on man is from espn , is joking man , come on man ! no doubt always 2 ways , all i have said is just my take .. how do i really feel about this game say , how much would i bet on it ? ooh my , i am scared to death of it .. simply because of the east coast west coast factor .. and that it is SF's turn to go to a bowl if it was ever anybodys turn to break through on the scene again .. so why did i type all i did in ny favor , that is simply my take as a tracker living and breathing it day after day and year after year .. is the nfl like the nba come playoff time ? well , lets hope it is not like the reg season .. really though , nfl is more predictable come crucnh time in the playoffs .. but the east coast to west coast scenario always screams red flag no matter what sport .. who gets a better nights rest .. too many unknowns to ever honestly say you knew what was going to happen .. just when it does happen like you thought you get the evidence to act like you knew when you got it right .. but , in true perspective there are too many factors in a nfl game to feel sooo good .. you can get em right left and right but you can fall flat on your face just the same , just when you thought you had it pegged . a tracker take to me would be take ny .. being really into all of it deep .. but is no guarantee . |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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seriously truth be told i think we have to throw all the stats out the window as soon as the foot hits the side of the tee and its on ! really a bettor has an advantage doing props because the props are set up with the main factor being PAST PERFORMANCE . and we are literally not in the past anymore . WE ARE IN THE HERE AND NOW .. i predict 24 - 20 is always a stretch to say a guy will score .. when in reality it could be no tds .. or hrs in mlb .. but i can tell you who will score , patriot tight ends . so if the gmen did not pull off that improbable 07 run winning the sb would the giants have less value in how they are percieved today ? i dont know , but i know for a fact it is nothing but a positive that the giants have already been there and done that compared to the comp which is simply a big surprise and have not been in a game this big before , these guy on sf have not .. how much does that weigh ? it weighs something i know that .. lets say brees and stafford got hurt , who would be the NFL PASSING LEADER FOR 2011 SEASON ? YES , IT WOULD BE MANNING . so in effect would he be looked at like a brady then ? here we have a team with a qb that lead the leauge in passing ? well i know that is the scenario but it put things in perspective of how we jude and value this and that .. when in reality we just dont get it ... many times .. |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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i was saying the spread in this game is most likely not relevant but that many people , thousands would be INFLUENCED BY WHO THE FAV WAS , it is subliminal if not just downright people believe what they see at face value .. come on man ! this rule does not have to apply to every single game in history but is a simple reflection of the human reaction to taking things at face value and buying into hype .. you may buy the more expensive product because of the ads and it cost more when in reality it is the same as the cheap model with no hype .. come on man ! the power of sugestion is as strong as any power ever known to man , some people just wont admit it or recognize it .. why do you think we have to sit through 500 commercials every day . you may not be keen and wise enough to know what is going on when they are talking about pizza hut pan pizza in the background but when you look up you just might say , hey baby lets order some pizza .. come on man !!! subconscious my brother , just as strong as the conscience , you may still be in the womb . it takes time and good influence to take it to another level , no matter what the subject .. time brother . |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
In reality what happend the last game doesnt matter either as we have seen!I And most people wont and are not taking SF JUST because they are FAVORED LOL that just ridiculous!! Devils advicate to your see they are fav that means they are gonna win!!The Giants beat the superbowl champs,are rolling and are getting points gotta take them how could they lose!!And yes the Giants are getting more action than SF the higher %s of who people bet on as shown on the net always is the public backs the majority of favs .. never changes . there are always exceptions to the rule but overall the public backs the team with the minus on it . you joking right ? i was speaking in general .. public = favs are you new to this ? |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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manning is def going to have to air it out .. personally i like jacobs and bradshaw . the stats for the reg season are not a guide to what will happen in a future game .. stop living in the past !!! come out into the light in the here and now . that was then this is now is a slogan you should live by . come out of the past , here ye here ye !! game is a tossup , but all i conveyed is also simple common sense if you watch the games year after year .. you have to figure in that the players will bring their A game , reg season the teams underestimate and play down to their level of comp and can mess up .. in crunch time the players as well as the caching staff go all out .. so who do you trust more eli or alex ?
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billsneedhelp | 79 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
Um now go to the other 10 catagories you left out where SF has the advantage. Special teams,linebackers etc....??? good feedback man , true if they run a couple kicks/punts back and force ny to fumble on ny returns then yes that would be the x factor and sf would have a very great chance of getting the w .. now could it be by 1 pt or 2 pts ? nwo that is funny right , we never really expect a 1 or 2 pt marging on victory yet it can so easily occur .. but yes the special teams can be huge ! you right the linebackers do seem to stick out more for sf .. in baseball we put a lot of emphasis on the starting pitcher .. so in football we have smith vs manning ? that is sorta like happ vs pedro , but the scenario is both are in their prime . the whole story in how you gauge it ? you have to look at it in the NOW . really what the giants did in the reg season is more than irrelevant because of injs , like to the 150th power it is useless info .. most people look at the reg season in how they place value in a team .. in realtime ? you have a team and i am one of your best players , couple others are breat too but we are inj and not playing .. sooo ? just wait til i get back in there right and the other key guys .. then look at us . look at what we have done since we got all our players back man ! well we are not in the reg season and all the ny giants are healthy , just because they are playing in sf , people bite , take the bait . if it was in ny , the line would be around 7 , if it wasnt it should be .. if the line came out nyg - 2 , this would plant a seed in peoples heads that hey , the giants are really a better team than sf is , see they are favored .. true meaning ? is irrelevant . most will take the team because they see a minus pts b ythe team , so they should win right , seeeee , they are the fav .. come on man . yes it all comes down to what happens in that small window of time on the field , esp with the zebras .. but lets take it to the truest of levels of what will occur sunday >>>> 1 fav wins and one dog is good , 1 home and 1 away . nough said GL to all 1 fav 1 dog = 1 home and one away i would bank on it |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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i did that to put the teams in perspective , putting all possible facts together and coming up with the most probable result . we know sf at gb would be gb all day , we sure would think gb would win .. yes ? there would be nothing to suggest otherwise .. the thing about looking at a teams ranking on offensive and d can be a total misrepresentation of what will truly occur in said game . the styles of offense teams run ans what they are wiiling to give up in each game , who the opponent is .. the team ranking on d and o can be quite false in what will occur when they are cfacing another opponent . they only play 16 reg season games .. is not really a large enough profile to know what will occur in said upcoming game .. same reason that a guy picking 16 games and showing a great record has nothing to do with how good he really is when faced with different matchups in the future .. upcoming game the gameplan by one team can dictate how the other team has to play , a team gives up plenty of passing yards because they r way up in the game or comfortably in the lead .. all that is bs stats that do not tell the true story .. is sf d better than ny ? of course not .. it is all just wordplay man .. is ny d better than sf d right now ? i wont say yes to that but i would take ny d all day if i had that choice of buying the players for my own team .. sf broguth in around 9 new faces on d at the start of the season .. so they coudl be the future , but we are in the NOW . THE ONLY FACTOR IN SF FAVOR IS >>> the easy coast to west coast thing but they dont play at 1 so its not like it is really 10 am in ny or anything .. sf qb vs ny qb = sad ny recievers all day ny rbs all day .. soooo ? i dont get why people would try and make it like sf is the better team . experience ? sad for sf , all ny man playing contrarian would be to take sf .. and of course they could win as with any game in any sport 24/7/365 but the right play is ny given all the info , fact you can get +3 is really a no brainer .. montana is not on the field , young isint either .. GARCIA ? ahhh now that was an awesome comeback he pulled for sf in the 4th q beating the gmen .. no way that could happen with this giant d and supporting cast all the way around for ny .. it will be something to see .. if sf wins then it will be no different than all the other contrarian picks that are $ every day of the year in every sport .. |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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so when someone says they are leery of betting on the pats and giants because the public %s show a higher % on the pats and giants .. what does this really mean ? people in general think the public/higher % shown will be no good more than it cashes .. what is the true $ result for big books if the public is right on the pats while some so called sharp $ was huge on the ravens ? another words people think siding with the public /higher % shown on who people bet on is a bad idea when really in effect the public had to be right so the huge bets would crash .. ? CRASH , NOT CASH . it could simply be like life , anything can be flipped a hundred ways , you can make 1 simple subject have a room divided and only until the results come in can people say i told u so , always only after the game is over .. IF THE GIANTS WIN IT WAS A NO BRAINER , IF SF WINS IT WAS A NO BRAINER in all honesty , the saints giftwrapped that game for sf , turnovers . saints are an indoor team , sf winning was a gift and all factors were in their favor , and they still barely pulled out the win . the giants may play turnover free which would make ny an overwhelming fav . sf turned the ball over the least yes , but what ny will bring on d is almost scary to think about .. sf was ranked 24th going into the season , ny was around 14th . if the pack had won over ny then it would be sf at gb in the nfc title game , no one would give sf a snow balls chance .. and rightfully so .. if the saints hosted the 9ers in the nfc title game , the 9ers would never have won or even been in the game .. special circumstances <<< underline that word .. soooooooooo ? are there more possible special circumstances this sun in sf ? yes , weather and of course as always the turnover scenario .. in effect makign a team look better than they really are .. that little 60 min window of time .. we all know anyone can win .. but who is the RIGHT PLAY ? the play that even if it is a dud ewas the right play ? gotta be NY . thanks , sorry to ramble and jumble so many different sub in one little box
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billsneedhelp | 79 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MJ2345:
Although they try to get 50-50 on each side it doesnt happend that often.There will be alot of times throughout the year where the books will be on a certain side because of so much action that is one sided. As far as Casinos,sportsbook is last on their list of revenue with less than 3%.They care about slots,slots,slots and more slots which is guaranteed money!! keep in mind it is not the actual # of people that matters in moving a line , it is the amount of $ placed on each team ie >> if it says 65% of the public is backing the Pats , what really matters as far as examining the line movement is the 4 or 5 large bets on the Ravens .. this is tricky in making an evaluation on what the line movement really means yes .. going opposite of what makes sense would be to take the ravens and the 49ers , a lot of times that method is just as true as the common sense method in picking .. of course i like ny and ne thanks |
billsneedhelp | 79 |
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try and take all home teams and stop at 3 selections last year was last year , this is this year dont look for whacky results , think more in line of the obvious would mean to go with the home teams for the 1st 3 games , then its tebow time and if all 3 home are good , go with pitt just my 2cents |
eyemtlaw | 2 |
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saints -0.5 giants +7 broncos +19 unlike last year , saints advance this year , they have come to far if the giants lose it will be by the dreaded fg or lowest of margins ,they are primed for battle , if they fail it will be by the slimmest of margins and i would call it a fluke broncos can hang around and even surprise with a chance to win in the 4th q , a big reason this is possible is because they play in den and everyone will be looking for the shock the world story to unfold , perhaps some of them wearing zebra vests no way pitt covers , God is on den side , just for 60 min . this 10 pt t is holds a good 75 % chance , if one had to be wrong then its tebow having a horrible day , if you dont like den just tease the saints over , but remember when it looks to obvious it just might be >> saints are goood for no less than 30 , 30 - 24 seems about right . |
BallsoHardUniv | 16 |
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