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SF & KC ?
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coolspot | 32 |
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played rams -3 early, hedged it with card +5.5. With a bit of luck both bet hits. BOL to all.
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Covers | 60 |
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A line shift from -2.5 to -6 means nothing but sharp money all over the rams. bookies trying to catch some public money on the dog with that line and maybe some sharp rebuy.
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Covers | 60 |
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I played PAOK -1 @3.0. They need to win with 2 goals (because guincamp won the first match 2-0 and the tiebreaker is H2H) to advance to the next round. Guincamp is in a bad spot: they need points in Ligue 1 to avoid relegation and play PSG on sunday at home. I think they will focus on Ligue1. If POAK wins i think theres a good chance they win with multiple scores. BOL to all.
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DiamondJack | 33 |
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Quote Originally Posted by whodat5400: Yes,QB and RB may not play.(Woodside and Hunt) Sorry, but dont you think the line already involves this information?
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Covers | 27 |
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To calculate some results for the first question (taking big dogs to cover the first half - psychological thought behind this was, that big favorites maybe start slow against bad teams because they dont take them serious enough) i took the average First-Half-SU-Margin for all lines greater than 0. Then i calculated the possible First-Half line, because they dont appear in any database, by multiplying the FT-line with 0.57 (HT line for dogs always seem a bit higher than the line divided by 2). Then I calculated the average advantage for every line (the same way as above) and subtracted the Full-Time advantage to see if the HT advantage is greater than the FT-advantage. While for low lines (below 7) the dogs seem to be less profitable, there seems to be an significant advantage for big spreads (+10 to +13.5).
Yesterday was a perfect example. I took the raiders +7 1H - and while they lost the bet, the chances of covering were much better in the first half - until this crappy Anderson Run. The Broncos startet slow but then pulled away in the second half. Do you guys have any experience in taking dogs to cover the first half?
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Kranked | 2 |
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We all know the talking about a big underdog covering backdoor. I just noticed this season, while loosing on some big underdogs (i usually avoid favorites and play dogs - my record is about 20-20), that i would have won about 70-80% of my bets if i had taken the dog to cover the first half. Of cause my sample size is very thin, so i did some research. I could use some opinions to the following results:
First of all, I checked the average SU-Margin for every dog line (0.5 to 20+) since 1990 and calculated the average advantage. For example: all +1 dogs had an average SU Margin of +0.9 points (they actually won their games - of cause - on average). So the avg advantage for them is +1.9. 6-point dogs had an avg SU margin of -7.6, which means an (dis)advantage of -1.6. I will put the most interesting lines below: Line | SU Margin FT | advantage
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