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I agree 100%. I know I am playing too many games. I think the best sports bettors have the discipline to lay off a MNF game and not play it just because its on TV and its the only game in town. There is a tendency to pick a game because there are multiple ways to win each game and every game someone is a winner. If I just played the games I felt really strongly about, I have no doubt I could play to profits. But I have just never developed that skill. I should really open a second account and just play games I have capped and I feel good about. Then play chump change on games where I am playing just for the action with the 1st account. |
KMang | 10 |
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I agree. But I am a 50/50 bettor right now, and I know if I flip a coin 100 times it probably won't be 50 times Heads, it will be 55/45 or whatever, so I am just hoping that my luck is better than my capping.... Its very possible that I am just an action junkie and my job and 3 little kids are impacting my ability to spend all day long capping my games. So this way I can bet the games without the aggravation of picking the games. Just to be clear, I have no intention of doing this as a long term strategy, but for the last 2 weeks of the NFL season when your guess is as good as mine as to which of the eliminated teams will give a sh*t enough to show up? Why not... |
KMang | 10 |
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Forgot there was a Thursday game tonight....So I better post these plays so they are out there.... Here is who the coin had me take.... Carolina +14.5 (Man was I pissed), Arizona +7, Detroit +3.5, Philadelphia -14, Jacksonville -7, Tampa Bay -6, San Francisco +2.5, Chicago -1, Buffalo +7.5, Baltimore -3.5, Kansas City -5, Indi -3, San Diego -7.5. |
KMang | 10 |
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OK, I have decided to go ahead and do this for a week. I am tired of capping games and being half right all the time. Sometimes I sniff out the perfect contrarian play with Reverse Line Movement and I win. Other times that crappy team that is an ugly looking bet is just simply a crappy team who gets hammered. So in the end I go about 50/50 and pay vig all season long. Some good weeks, some bad weeks.... SOOOO....I thought to myself.... Self, if you just flipped a coin and put 1 unit on every game, would you do better or worse??? Heads was Home Team, Tails was Away team. If anyone cares, I will post the picks and let everyone know how it went.... But I felt I had to post this for Posterity. |
KMang | 10 |
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Cinci was +3, -125 for me also for 1Q....just FYI
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tinoker55 | 259 |
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Tin,
Just wanted to say I have been following you (silently) for awhile now and have profitted nicely. Good to see you back from the P. Box Sh*thole. Thanks for all of the plays and your amazing consistency in getting them posted daily. Have fun at your daughter's party. Good times.... PS.... Who is God's name is the girl in your avatar??? Need to see more of her!!
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tinoker55 | 259 |
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Nice work so far..... Keep up the great attitude. You seem like a gentleman.... |
AJSPICKS | 91 |
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quietly....one of the best cappers on here this CFB season. shhhhh..... With you on Marshall....feeling better after reading the boards and seeing so much UCF love. The Herd scares the crap out of me, but when in doubt, fade the masses. GL this week 808 and keep up the good work! |
oahuboy808 | 38 |
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That AF/SDSU line was moving because it was released as a RAS play. Edward is on SDSU, thus the big movement.
Keep up the great work Wahoo..... I always read your threads.... |
WahooS | 149 |
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For what its worth....I followed this guy's picks at the other forum. He is legit. No reason to hate.....
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SportsPicks3434 | 101 |
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165, Thanks for this post....these types of discussions are what forums like this are good for.... (although I liked one guy's post where he said he had a great system where he faded posted picks based upon how many $ signs were in the post title!). Personally, I have been playing the 2nd half lines for awhile with about a 65-66% success rate. I seem to have found one situation that may be ripe for a filter to be applied, but I just wanted to see if you have had a similar experience. I have done very well playing a team B that is a 10 point underdog for instance and they are down by 14 at halftime. Those are money plays.... The spot where I seem to have alot less certainty is when a team is a favorite but the game is a runaway... Last night Morehead State was a 17.5 point favorite who was up by 30 at halftime. I passed on SE Mizzou State at +4 and they lost the 2nd half by 10. Also, Washington was up by 19 at halftime as a 8.5 point favorite. On that game I jumped on Stanford +0.5 in the second half and they continued to get walloped. my long-winded question is this.....Have you found that if a game gets a little out of hand by halftime that this betting strategy proves to be more erratic? I would throw out bets in that situation in their entirety, but UMiami was a 2nd half winner after being down by 27 to Vtech at Half and the Nets won that same night after being down 36 at half to the Celts.... For the time being I keep playing them as I see them, but was just looking for more insight on developing a feel for when a game is out of hand and when a team is going to make a 2nd half run for self-respect.... |
165yds | 179 |
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sniperswife | 131 |
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I know we have a B bet on Calgary tonight Under 5.5. Anything else pending??? |
gasman33 | 1160 |
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TheThinker | 22 |
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Seriously! This system has been red-hot. Ride it while it lasts!! Thanks to Kangy and Gasman and everyone else who has kept it going!! |
gasman33 | 1160 |
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Good night for this system yesterday!! Those two plays looked AWFUL on paper but both delivered strong winners!! |
smitler | 619 |
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5 plays tonight.... big night for this system.....
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smitler | 569 |
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There's an oxymoron if I have ever seen one....a Smart Newbie (who read the whole thread before posting, no less!!!) Welcome to the thread Muppet.... Labby has been treating me much better lately. The huge PL juice sent alot of people running for the hills early on, things have been much more stable lately. Some have been having success playing MLs instead and trading a few wins for better juice and some + odds. Me, I am with you, I didn't have the stones for the C bets on Martingale laying -300 juice. PSIC has been tracking the ML on his blog https://platinumsportsinvestingblog.blogspot.com/ and I am officially a convert there. By the end of the year, it should mean less units won, but I am thinking they will be cancelled out by the savings on medical expenses for treatment of ulcers. GL all... |
KongKiller | 855 |
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Hey, do any of you guys have any idea on how JM does on his NON-SYSTEM plays? I have seen people post them after the fact as winners, but I was wondering if anyone knows his winning %. For the record, tonight he is on NJ (+7.5) vs. Dallas in the NBA and Boston College (+5.5) vs. Mich in College BB. |
KMang | 2 |
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C game with OKC against Phili tonight Then: B games for San Antonio vs. Boston and Denver vs. Miami on Thursday 12/3, right? GL everyone.... |
smitler | 619 |
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