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Correction to above: Seattle was initially the favored team by -3 when the line was released last year on Sunday night;
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Covers | 336 |
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Read the regular papers for the best analysis. The New York times had an excellent piece last year. Seattle was initially the favored team by +3 when the line was released last year on Sunday night; Monday morning it flipped. The initial line before it moves is who Vegas thinks is the better team and this year Seattle was initially favored -1 on sunday night. Deflate gate will be a factor in rattling NE's cage and it's worth reviewing the GB-SEA. In martial arts, given two contenders of equal ability, the fighter in the best physical condition will win. Watch the 4th qtr and OT against GB who was arguably the better team with best performance. However, Seattle is in better physical shape when it comes to endurance. Put simply, the Seahawks gassed them out! This was the secret weapon of the Miami Heat in the Lebron James era: they would kick in the "turbo" 4th quarter and demolish their opoonents. I would like to see Brady end his career on a high note however, bet against Seattle at your own peril. ;-)
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Covers | 336 |
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Found a way to 2 team parlay with a 3rd game else where and bet both sides of this game. if I'm wrong it cancels out and is a wash with little lost; if I'm right I make a 30% net return. Go packers... sort of :-) Good luck all !!!
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Covers | 154 |
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As somoene trained by a pro but who only does this as a hobby to pay for vacations, I do parlays all the time and have never lost a dime of my own money; I built it all up with rollover bonuses. Most people bet on emotion and go for big payouts. DON'T! A 20% return on your money is better than the stock market so don't get greedy. Find ways to hedge and bet both sides of the game to minimize your losses. Sharps know that the most important rule is actually not about winning: it's about NOT losing catastrophically... and how to handle it when you do lose. As long as you don't lose much, you're in the game and eventually you'll win. According to Teddy Covers, there are less than 100 people in Vegas who live off their winnings and it's a pretty weird, insulated, nerdy life even if you do so careful what you wish for. I would not want the life of the guy who taught me. The casinos have the best people in the world and try to recruit those who find anomalies. But they're not nearly as good as people think: a lot of these games are flat out rigged, especially the spreads which is well documented. If you're betting money you can't afford to lose, stop and get help. Thanks for sharing and good luck!
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aminorabino | 96 |
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I am fairly new to this but was taught by someone who does this for a living (14 years). I've never lost a dime of my own money as I built up my winnings using the casino's roll over bonus ;-) I am also completely dispassionate about sports; I couldn't care less who wins or loses and rarely watch the games. So... we have point shaving, (basketball), bribed refs (NBA), soccer rigging (singapore), that mysterious 20 min superbowl power outage in N'aluns, and that AC failure in the NBA championship last year. Many NFL playoff games this year have been decided by controversial ref calls. So clearly, the best team doesn't always win. Every post here is about why one team or the other is better overall, but the refs are deciding not just the spreads but W/L on these games! It's quite possible that TV ratings matter most which is why most series run 6 or 7 games and "zig zag." What 2 teams will get the most viewers? What is the best story/narrative for the commentators to blab on incessantly about for days on end after like a Vegas hooker who broke a nail? I am ignorant of standard football knowledge but b/c of this, I also think outside the box. Seattle-GB will probably be closer than most people think; and no one really cares about the Colts; it's not their time yet and viewers would rather hear talk of Brady's incredible career.
RECOMMENDATION: take New England ML -260ish), and buy points on GB (currently +12.5/-295ish). parlay each with a quasi "sure thing" in NBA or NHL for near even odds. constructive comments welcomed and good luck :-) |
Covers | 154 |
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This is only my 2nd year betting so caveat emptor but here's my take: favorites been dropping like flies during olympic season, the line is above my "suspicious line" (-220 opening) and is widening. 70% of games b/t these two were decided by one point. wager split is 65/35. Who would the casinos like to see win? An upset is a distinct possibility on "no brainer" MLB and NHL, I'm going with a conservative high payout wager on Buffalo. Good luck all.
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Covers | 7 |
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Wait until just before game time and see if the "wise guy" ML shifts. that happened last night with pacers around 7pm. line went from -1000 to -850 in an instant... and they lost
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Covers | 13 |
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For what it's worth, Ducks haven't lost 3 in a row since 11/20/13. 2 game parlay with NBA Indiana pacers ML + Ducks ML = -133
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Covers | 13 |
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thx Roger, can you send me the exact link for that? not coming up on google.
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Covers | 13 |
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Hey guys, please help a newbie. other than TV, where and what time should I check for the final NHL lineups (esp goalies) before game time? I don't see it listed on the covers site and it's not easy to find in a google search. thx!
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Covers | 13 |
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