Ice4Blood

Member Since:December 2008
Location:

Recent Posts

Date Post Entry

Ice4Blood
College Football > Alabama vs Oregon BCS title line?? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by slick15:
Bama -7.5
71



Ice4Blood
College Football > Week 8 Money > View Post

Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:
Ok back to capping. 

CMU still sucks. 

At one point they were 0-19 ATS. one win over Ohio doesn't change that. 




I know they suck!  They weren't 0-19 ATS this year... but that's beside the point... 

NIU is over-rated... that's the premise... good luck with your play, I am not saying it's wrong!  Just wanted to get your take... not exactly what I was expecting...

Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

What are you talking about guy? I respect you. We are talking, collaborating on plays. It's ok to differ. 

We're good man, what's ur deal?

Why are you talking to me like I some idiot who watched his first football game this weekend?  Come on man...

I respect your capping, that's why I pose questions... but saying "you form opinions after one game" is something you ONLY say to someone you think is an idiot!

Choose your words more carefully, would be my advice... thanks!


Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
Worst in the MAC, with B2B road wins over Mia-Oh and Ohio... crushed Mia-Oh... but I form opinions after one game...

Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
How the hell can you say CMich is DEFINITELY the worst in the MAC, and then criticize my analysis... 

CMich would beat both Mia-Oh and WMich 9 times out of 10... probably beat EMich 7 out of 10... pretty absurd for you to make your statement, and then criticize mine...

See ya!

Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:
I watched both NIU and CMich in their games this past week, and just some thoughts...

1) NIU has to have the most predictable offense I have ever watched... seems like 90% of their plays are Lynch running plays... and that guy can't throw the ball for garbage!

2) CMich runs the ball very well, and controls the clock!


I bought the hype on NIU for one game, but just as fast I'm off that bandwagon... they're not as good as advertised, and CMU might not be as bad as advertised...


This is not a post that warrants the type of response you gave... 

Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdnmoney:

After one game you form opinions?

CMU is horrible. The worst in the MAC. 

Different level here. Still looking but how could anyone bet on CMU right now? 

Dude, you need to friggin relax!  Who the hell said I am making a judgment after one game?  Show some friggin respect!  

I won't make the mistake of posting on your thread again...

Ice4Blood
College Football > Alabama vs Oregon BCS title line?? > View Post
I can guarantee you that Alabama would not be favored by more than 3... and it would be bet down by gametime... closing line would be somewhere between Oregon (-1) and Bama (-2.5)... assuming both teams are healthy...

Ice4Blood
NFL Betting > Tennessee... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by 165yds:
I had the Hawks too. If that game is played 10 times with all things being equal they cover 8.  Titan backers you got your 20%, at one point it was nearly 400 yds to 100.   You won but it wasn't the right side, it shows why it's so tough to hit 58%.


Just like the Bengals game, I capped it correctly... but capping it correctly does not mean it will win...

Smart, experienced cappers get that!  Whereas idiots like "trying2makeabuk"... who incidentally will never post their plays and set themselves up for potential ridicule... do not get it!

Ice4Blood
College Football > Avoiding losing plays > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by BandosWB:
And sure enough, OK, Oregon State, S Carolina are early pub favs.

and Alabama at 79%.  Crap.

And Miami makes the list.  Worth putting them on the no play list.


Only issue I see here, is where do you get your numbers?  Different sites and services provide conflicting information... so who's top 10 list would you use?


Definitely agree with both principles, though... not necessarily a "fade the public" kind of guy... but if I like a play, and I see that it is against the public, it helps to reinforce my confidence... and I might stay away from a game if it looks a bit too popular...

Ice4Blood
College Football > #5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by POTUS:
FSU has had two weeks to prepare. I don't know if or how this helps or hurts them, but thought if throw it out for discussion. IMO it can only help


Glad you brought this up... I have been noticing more and more that CFB teams do not benefit from bye weeks in any significant way... at least not on the scoreboard... I bet teams off a bye are well under 50% ATS this year... well under!  Probably below 40%...

NFL teams have success off of the bye... but for some reason, it doesn't do much for college teams... probably because they get lax, and don't practice every day... 

Ice4Blood
College Football > #5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT > View Post
I agree FSU is the better team on paper... put them on a neutral field late in the year, and I'll probably take FSU... BUT... they are the more inexperienced team in this matchup, and Clemson at home is a very different beast... this is clearly their game of the year...

I'm not endorsing Clemson... I just don't see how anyone could trust laying pts with them on the road against a quality team... seems like an unknown quantity... Clemson has played more big games in the last couple years than FSU... can they handle this?

We'll see...

Ice4Blood
NFL Betting > Tennessee... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by mbialowas:
Tennessee was the right side here, there was a ton of sharp money that came in late on the titans. They covered the points with ease even with an incompetent qb 


What planet are you from?  


If your reasoning for saying Tennessee was the right side, is the fact that "sharp money" came in light... then I have no interest in your opinion.  "Sharp" bettors... don't follow "sharp" money... they ARE the sharp money!  By definition, therefore, you are NOT SHARP!  So who cares how you evaluate "right" or "wrong" sides...


Fact is, up until the last minute of the game, Titans fans were still sweating it... but yea, they covered easily!



Scal... pretty much thinking the same... probably not gonna see a 4.5... 4 will be fine with me... pretty sure the Jets will win, or it will be a 19-17 kind of a game... 




Ice4Blood
College Football > #5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ice4Blood:



Oregon - Wazzou is an example, to me... how many people can feel comfortable laying 38 against Oregon?


My bad... should say Wazzou... pretty sure nobody feels safe laying 38 against Oregon...

Ice4Blood
College Football > #5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by ChiliDogs_3:

I was just skimming this thread and came across this statement which is something I've thought about throughout my years and experiences gambling on sports....

There's this internal, pyschological hurdle that most of us have a hard time getting past.  There's a weird comfort or justification, for lack of a better term, in betting on the "Safer" side and losing, than to put $ down on the unpopular or head-scratching side of a line, and winning or losing.  

There's a weird sense of pride that screws with your ability to see where you SHOULD bet vs where the number is LEADING you to bet.

This is one of the biggest games in CFB in quite some time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see any number of possible outcomes occur, but it makes me feel at least a little more confidence in backing FSU, based on the mentality in the quote above.




Great post!  As the season wears on, the books get a better read on teams, and have greater success in scaring people away from certain games and certain teams... 

Oregon - Wazzou is an example, to me... how many people can feel comfortable laying 38 against Oregon?  That line is going to induce quite a few LARGE bets on Wazzou, and a whole bunch of SMALL bets on Oregon... because nobody feels SAFE laying that many points, against a live opponent...

But the SAFE mentality is totally illogical... Oregon either WILL cover or WILL NOT cover, and the number of points they have to lay to get there only matters inasmuch as their chances are greater or less than 50%... 

Oregon -38 might not look "SAFE" before the game starts... but if they are up 21-0 in the first quarter... how safe do you think those people with Wazzou are gonna feel?

The SAFE PLAY mentality is always in full effect leading up to the games... but come gameday, it is easy to see that it all goes out the window...

Ice4Blood
College Football > #5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by incognegro:

Calling Boom_Boom!!!


You know it's sad... Boom Boom and Jimmy Da Freak are two guys I didn't really agree with a lot of the times... but they both were extremely knowledgeable in terms of breaking down their conferences and teams, by and large... and it's not as if this site has people like that coming out their ears...

But as usual... idiots around here antagonize and moan and wail after a bad week... and invariably people who ARE contributing have to ask themselves... "Why the darn should I help any of these dipshits by providing them with any insight?"  And you can never get around the fact that the answer is... "I shouldn't!"


But for games like this, regardless of who they think will cover, the insight of Boom can help others get a feel for the game, and find out any info they might be missing... so the covers masses once again succeed at SLITTING THEIR OWN THROATS... 


Moral of the story: Covers clowns don't want insight... they want winners!  People like ME want insight... I'll figure out my own winners... but a little expertise on a game I can't spend hours capping, would be helpful once in awhile...


But this lesson will not be heeded... the hand that feeds will be bitten off again...

Ice4Blood
NFL Betting > Tennessee... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by composite:


what about SF -4 this week? A sh*tty team can only do so much w home field advantage.


Definitely caught my eye!  If anything, the fact the Titans covered this game only skews value in favor of those fading them again this week... 


I spend the first couple days looking at CFB, so I don't get too deep into the NFL until late in the week... but this is a likely play for me... pretty sure I will play the Jets (+4) against the Pats... Pats and Saints beat the living garbage out of each other, and I think the Pats walk into a bad situation here... physical Jets team is something they don't want to see... hopefully I can get 4.5 or better, but I would probably bite at 3.5...

Ice4Blood
NFL Betting > You want a write-up??? You got a write-up!!! The BIGGEST ONE OF MINE OF 2013! Jaguars@Denver baby! > View Post
Nailed it!


Ice4Blood
College Football > NCAA FB Week 8 (61-40-2 YTD : 60.39% : 8-7 LW) > View Post
I watched both NIU and CMich in their games this past week, and just some thoughts...

1) NIU has to have the most predictable offense I have ever watched... seems like 90% of their plays are Lynch running plays... and that guy can't throw the ball for garbage!

2) CMich runs the ball very well, and controls the clock!


I bought the hype on NIU for one game, but just as fast I'm off that bandwagon... they're not as good as advertised, and CMU might not be as bad as advertised...

Ice4Blood
College Football > #5 FSU at #3 Clemson INSIGHT > View Post
Here is the most significant take I have on this game...


How many people actually watched the FSU - Maryland game, and how many just saw the 63-0 final... in my opinion, that game is what is creating FSU's current perception... whether or not they deserve it is another question:

With 4:00 left in the 1st half, FSU was leading 14-0... Maryland had the ball around their own 30... up to that point, even the 14-0 score was misleading... Maryland had moved the ball very well against the FSU defense, but had 1 TO and a long missed FG that bounced off the upright... 

I felt like Maryland was about to drive down the field and get a TD... they were getting more and more confident on every drive...

Then it happened... CJ Brown gets planted by a late hit (commentators were shocked there was no flag thrown)... leaves the game... a few plays later, the Terps turn it over, and FSU adds a BS touchdown before half to make it 21-0...

At that point there was only one way the game could go... Maryland had all of the life taken out of them before HT...


Exactly ZERO of the 2nd half points in that game should factor into what you think of Florida St... the 63-0 score in that game is the most misleading final score I have ever seen in a CFB game...


So how far off is perception from reality in this game?

Ice4Blood
College Football > WHO THINKS TEXAS A&M IS OVER RATED??? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by atl4tigerfan:
Depends on who starts at QB for AU this weekend and good luck getting a straight honest answer out of Gus and staff until Sat. morning.


So who do you think will start?  Gut feeling?  Marshall listed as probable on Vegasinsider, but their injury reports can be very unreliable...

Ice4Blood
College Football > Oregon is not the best team > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Wizard41:
SEC. Oregon cant win versus a real defense. Pac 12 sux

Check the record. Facts are facts. 

SEC. Gonna do it again this year too

Dumb thread. 


It is funny how ridiculously unintelligent the arguments are from people trying to support Bama in this matchup...

Ice4Blood
College Football > Oregon is not the best team > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by mattbrot:
Pnut - take a hike man. You are exposing yourself


Couldn't agree more...

Ice4Blood
College Football > Week 8 Money > View Post
Actually now I am seeing him listed as probable on Vegasinsider... now I just gotta figure out if there is a realistic chance of getting (+14)...

Ice4Blood
College Football > Week 8 Money > View Post
If anyone has status info on the Auburn QB, would appreciate any update!

Ice4Blood
Pro Football > Indianapolis at San Diego (10/14/2013) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by sjon412:


OK im sorry but I have to call you out. I noticed your post in a different thread last night. You claim to have "changed" your "picks" before these games started but clearly you can see the times you post. You changed your jets pick to the Steelers when they lead 16-9 with 3 mins to go in the game. You changed your saints pick IMEDDIATELY after Tom Brady threw the game winning touchdown. And you posted this garbage at 11:45 when the game was over... stop trying to make yourself look like a guru. none of us care.




Ice4Blood
Pro Football > Indianapolis at San Diego (10/14/2013) > View Post
I do think the Chargers won't win if this game goes under... Colts aren't going to be shutdown on offense... Luck is a machine!

Ice4Blood
Pro Football > Indianapolis at San Diego (10/14/2013) > View Post
No play... can't bet Indy because it's a bad spot and bad line... can't bet SD for every other reason imaginable... and no, that's not a reason to bet on the Chargers...

Have fun!

Ice4Blood
NFL Betting > Tennessee... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by scalabrine:
I personally don't like to lay more than 11 in any NFL game, but given what the claw said, you could have easily covered/pushed this game.

Fitz is the problem here. He is SO bad, the line couldn't be any lower than what it was making it a tough game to get to the wire to if you took Seattle when so many mistakes can be made by the home team.


I will almost never lay DD, but I think you have to make an exception with this team... I doubt they will be less than DD against very many teams at home the rest of the way... and I think they will cover more of them than not...


Margin of error is something much too complicated for the average football bettor to understand... for them, it is all black-and-white... if the game doesn't cover, you suck... if it does, you're a genius!

The sky must be pretty in their world...
Forums
Desktop View: Switch to Mobile View