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Quote Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn: I did like his example. If you compare the straight bettor at 120-80 with 1.5 odds he broke even and the 1200-12 chase bettor with 1.50 odds and a 6 gm chase lost 1200-12*243 about 1716 units |
JEFFTHEHAT | 895 |
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This is unfortunate. If anyone did any work in the off season to reduce the risk of laying 146 units to win 1 that is all for nothing. With the reduction of units you would not be risking 60% on a F tier where prior you would risk 20%. Huge dif.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 895 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BIGfnPOO: tomorrow is our chance to see a C , the 2 gm c,d chase columbo spoke of... so i bet oak as C and then D if nec. It is only a C bet if followed the error otherwise a B bet on the correction. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 895 |
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Does Covers have a site to post plays for tracking only. Other sites have that. Only thing allowed is the play and record. That would be so easy then all the BS and useless stuff can stay right here and one could read it if they choose.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 895 |
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You should send Jeff a thank you note as you got this idea from him. His thread on the same subject is pretty much shut down since you stuck your nose in there. The idea for cancelling plays in the upper level just assure keeping good recording results. The unit lost on the front end are still lost. Jeff only has a couple more days before his greatest system starts anyway.
Too bad always the way it goes. Any chase over 3 is very risky especially at these odds. |
KidCovers | 133 |
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In looking over the last 3 years I have a question concerning the results. In 2011 I see no losses. In 2012 I saw 3. One agst Hou which the series started 4-30. Another agst CWS starting 7-3. And yet another agst Ariz starting 7-20. Then the 2 last year which were documented with agst LOS starting 8-14 and final with STL starting 9-6. Could either you or Jeff verify if this is true. If nothing else I then can go back and fix my data base.
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bDnews | 371 |
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I do not believe there is enough info to figure units based on 3 gms. If you assume a avg -150 line
2013 was 303 units 2012 was -98 2011 was 411 2010 was -103 2009 was -104 2 great years and 3 losing years avg of 82 units per year |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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Because of your rules is that why there are no NBA gms between 11-12 and 11-17 as they all lost which would greatly skew your results. Also 11-7 lost agst the opener and won agst the close. I think that was the only one that varied between open and close. If you quit playing after 3 losses in a row why the 6 gms chase. It seems inevitable that all would cover then.
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KidCovers | 133 |
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I would be a bit skeptical using those queries. From my point of view they have their own database they use. I know a fellow that used it for the nba and results are based on closing line. For my own purpose I use open from Don Best and close from Sports Options. Those lines were obtainable to me and the query lines were not. Now I can not speak for bases but I feel there will be differences. As an example we both had a system for totals. He was in the upper 60% range with me doing the same thing via formula based and I was at 31-35 a far cry from 43-23. Just an opinion nothing more.
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Machinist | 87 |
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Using last year I believe you would have won 33 units in a tier 1 and 2 chase. 5 from tier 1 and 28 from tier 2.
Last year there were no losing tiers as far as profit was concerned. In 2012 you would have lost in tier 1 and 3. 2011 no losing tiers and 2010 you would have lost in tier 1 and 2 and 2009 you would have lost in tier 2 and tier 3. This is based on avg 150 odds and data posted here earlier. I believe it to be pretty accurate. With that it seems hard to pick and choose which tiers to play. Avg for the 5 years by tier is as follows A -6.2 B 7.6 C 10 D 12.9 E 4.3 E 3 This takes the chase effect out completely and is listed as single wagers by tier. There were a few bad years in there for tier 1 plays like 2012 442-315 at 150 odds avg is -30.5 units and 2010 was 432-326 at 150 odds was -57 units. I guess that is why it is a chase as they all even out at the end. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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Without real data it is impossible to do. I think the math is right except for the 3rd tier of a 3 tier chase there were 32 losses and 85 wins so 117 times a person would have to lay 500 versus 1 with a 6 tier chase.
last year tier 1 461-304 tier 2 187-117 tier 3 85-32 tier 1 profits 250 tier 2 profits 1437 tier 3 profits 11562 I am not saying this is right but I based it all off of a max lay of 500 dollars. Hard to believe anyone would play the 6 game chase for less than 3 dollars per unit. Just an opinion and trying to establish a risk value. |
RandyRay | 27 |
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It is hard to do this without actual data. There was enough info given by Jeff and how ever figured the lay price by tier based on a 150 average. To follow the example I gave I did 2 things. I used the original 6 gm chase and a 3 game chase. I figured the original starting unit by a max bet. In a 6 gm chase the lay price for game six is 146.48 which takes into account all the losses and one unit profit after gm 6 wins. If your max lay is 500 dollars divide it by 146.48 which equals 3.41. So a starting wager of 3.41 dollars in gm 1 would result in you laying 499.49 in game 6 to get the 3.41 profit. Strange but true. Now take the 765 units won last year times 3.41 =2608 dollars of profit.
If you go to a 3 game chase the lay price for that is 9.375 so 500 divided by 9.375 is 53 dollar unit and at game 3 you would be laying close to 500 bucks at 150 odds. So in the above thread I did profit by tier and it seems to me by taking more losses and increasing unit size you come out ahead. Granted you give up stuff like in a 6 tier chase last year one had to lay 500 dollars once while in the 3 tier chase I showed you had to do that 32 times. Which is better the one that suites you or the one that never gets to tier 3. Just an opinion nothing more nothing less. I do know I would not be comfortable going to tier 6 in any chase where I have to lay 500 to win 3. |
RandyRay | 27 |
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Some of this has been posted in various threads. This is the way I see it using just results from 2013
Tiers from A to F, profit per tier and loss per tier. Assuming a max 500 to risk wager. A 1 1.5 B 2.5 3.75 C 6.25 9.375 500/9.37=53 D 15.625 23.4 E 39.06 58.6 F 97.6 146.48 500/146.48=3.41 So a 3 tier max chase one could wager 53 a unit and in tier 3=496.8 A 6 tier chase one would wager 3.41 a unit and tier 6 =499.4 last year wins and losses A 461 304 265 PROFIT B 187 117 1523 PROFIT C 85 32 12260 PROFIT D 23 9 E 8 1 F 1 0 760 WINS * 3.41=2608 3 TIERS = 14048 PROFIT |
RandyRay | 27 |
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I hear you on this one. I have been studying and waiting patiently. No way do I want to go on a 6 gm chase it just gets too expensive. Even 3 is a lot. Someone published the lay prices somewhere. So say you have a max wager of 1000 and at a 6 gm chase you lay 157.4 your profit for that wager is 7 dollars rounded off of course. Last year there were 765 chases so at the 7 your profit was 5355 which is nice. One would have to lose about 5 chases in gm 6 to lose money. Close enough for government work. Is the risk worth the reward.
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RandyRay | 27 |
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That was quick and thanks.
What are you going to do with the totals system you had in bases last year? |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JEFFTHEHAT: Ok as promised here is the first month results from last year as far as how many chases were going etc. First off May 3 to Jun 1 went 126-0 A) 86 B) 30 C) 6 D) 4 Thats 92% on A&B games The most chases going at one time was 11 on May 24th There was 12 days with no bets at all starting on May 3 17 days had bets If you would have parlayed every game played on each days games you would have hit a 2 teamer, two 3 teamers, two 5 teamers and an 8 teamer. Chases open by amount: 1-3 2-2 3-3 5-2 6-2 7-2 8-1 9-1 11-1 I'll post each month as I finish Could you post by tier or at least list how many moved into June. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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Like I figured should know better. I will type part of it out. Max wager will be 1K
tier lay price starting wager profit 1 1.5 667 -8333 2 3.75 267 19400 3 9.38 107 42427 4 23.44 43 44971 5 58.59 17 28322 6 146.48 7 19995 So a 6 tier chase starting at 7 dollars in tier 1 would put you at 1000 in tier 6 Hope I did my math right |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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First off I would like to say great work. If nothing else you put an effort into this that few would do.
Second I took a different approach. My guess is my chart won't turn out right they never do. I know nothing about google.docs so can't go there. I left off the last year only because it was on a different line than the rest and when I put it into excel and made text to cols it was missing. Doubt it would skew the data much any way. I used a max wager size of 1K so for a 1 tier chase and 1.5 odds the wager would be 667 and if a 6 tier chase the first wager would be 7 dollars. By fixing the end point you can easily see the variance in profit. It looks like the thing to do would be to skip tier 1 start on tier 2 and play a 2 tier chase.
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JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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Quote Originally Posted by fixergames: 100% dead solid perfect this system is nothing more than copying the other chase systems. I wonder what was back tracked 5 years? Does he game results for 5 years somewhere? I doubt that! i think he just put his system in using his parameters and says it's some ridiculous 84.3% by combining the A n B games Now he's changing it up to say the sweet spot is the 4th game of a chase cutting his original 6 game system to a 4 game chase. Hope all his d ...i ckk suckers followers make money with his picks because if not there will be a lot of angry people in here on may 2nd I wonder why he says may 2nd what happend to May 1st ??? and the whole month of April. I seen every chaser go bust after two months past 20 years no matter what bank they had or how much they bet per game they all lost money for the season. Meanwhile the sharp bettors keep blowing away all these chase systems winning a meager 59% of games but at $5000 a pop or more. win 29 games out of 49 X $5000 = $145,000 won net profit would be $35,000 in MLB that can be per week X 24 weeks = $840,000 per season lets see any chase system top those numbers. and it' dont matter if your betting all favorites or mixing dogs with favs you still win same amount of money! -150 fav means you risk more to win $100 thats all it is! would be $7500 to win $5000 bet a +150 dog for 5 K and win $7500 win both games your profit is $12,500 and you only made 2 flat bets without chasing or doubling up in 1st two days of the week HEY i'm sure everyone in here can win 2 bets in a row or even 10 or more without chasing hell look at survivors contest how many guys won 16 straight failed on #17 or won 7 or 9 or 10 straight games THat's where i make money at tailing those guys hoping to catch a winner You must use inventive reasoning. Your math is missing a part. If you want to compare an apple to an apple then you have 59% winning percentage you say 29 wins at 5000=145000 20 losses at 5000*1.5 odds like Bart used =150000 I think you lost 5000 maybe you are the fade material. When one leaves little parts out it sure makes the outcome look good. Personally I hope Jeff does real well whether I play them or not it would be an experience of a life time to witness. |
JEFFTHEHAT | 283 |
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Thank you, very nice explanation that clears up just about everything. One thing here. In the case of the Cubs example had that first game on April 4th not been a RD it would not have started the tracking correct. Meaning everything in the sequence has to match. A RD has to start the tracking in this case a RDW. Then next games were road dog losses. Then one had to wait for the RD win and skip 2 games of RD what ever the out come and now start. Everything has to follow the road dog sequence is my question.
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Bart_ | 37 |
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