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Hey David,
I like where you are going with this idea, but I think it might need some refining. I can tell you that if you tried this method over an entire season, you'd go .500. I know this, because I've looked at historical data for the past 2 seasons, and that's what I've found. It is possible that this late in the season, you might be able to show a small profit using this idea, because as the season goes on, the books become better at making lines and there's more value on the dogs. In my opinion, many of the games you're looking at are games with A LOT of value. A lot of the games I bet actually fall under this criteria. But, maybe use some discretion when looking at these games and don't blindly follow those rules. Good luck! Happy
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daviddaman24 | 59 |
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I'd throw out those stats. Pine-Bluff has a significantly harder strength of schedule.
A and M only has 2 wins against FBS teams. Both these teams are awful. If there's any bet in here, it's probably under 128.
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pls_win | 41 |
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Great picks so far!
I really like the Marquette play. I was surprised when I saw that line too! I really wasn't too surprised by the UNC-Greensboro line. This is their 3rd straight line around this number and they've hit 1 of the past 2 and just missed covering against Chattanooga. They've also played an obscenely tough schedule so far. I probably lean Elon in this one.
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daviddaman24 | 40 |
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Both teams start off slow, but really pick it up in the 2nd half.
I really like whatever the first half under is. Small lean on over for the game.
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NoWorries21 | 7 |
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Northwestern +17 and Wisconsin +3 jump out at me.
I'm going to heavily consider the 1st half under in Auburn-Oregon, whatever the number is.
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clepto | 37 |
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Miami laying less than a td is a gift
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Buddaus | 21 |
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I don't know if Tennessee is going to be able to move the ball effectively on offense without a threat at QB. They struggled enough with Collins and now it's Rusty Smith.
I feel pretty strongly about this one, but I definitely could be wrong. GL! |
HappytoWin | 6 |
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Adding a final pick until SNF:
Houston -6: Tennesse is a mess. There's all sorts of turmoil in the organization and now they are starting Rusty Smith at QB. I saw a few FAU games last year and Smith looked like a pretty good Sunbelt QB. I don't think that's going to cut it for a first start in the NFL.
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HappytoWin | 6 |
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Already adding another pick...
St. Louis +4: Tough spot for Denver here. They are coming off a completely demoralizing loss on MNF football. Now, off a short week and knowing their season is over, they need to play a feisty Rams team. St. Louis plays tough on the road. Despite being winless on the road this season, they are 3-1 ats on the road. This is a good match up for St. Louis and I like them getting points here.
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HappytoWin | 6 |
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2-0 on Thanksgiving, I was thankful about that. Hoping to keep rolling. A lot of game I like...
Green Bay +2: I love that Green Bay is getting points here. The whole Atlanta is dominant at home thing is a little overblown as they usually play crappy teams in Atlanta. Greenbay is coming together as a lot of players are coming back from injury. They are the better team here and the books are giving Atlanta too much home field advantage love. Washington +1: I'm not buying the hype that Minnesota is going to be a different team under Frazier. I think everyone is looking at the Cowboys win against the Giants under Garret's first game and saying the same thing happens here. But, Minnesota just came off a season crushing loss to the Packers. I don't see them really getting up for a fight here. Teams that have fired their coach midseason, not on a bye week, are 3-11 ATS since 1996. Washington still has something to play for and they are the better team. All they need to do is beat a mess of a Vikings team? Sign me up. Buffalo +6: Buffalo has been playing well as of late. I really don't see Pittsburgh getting up for this one, on the road, in Buffalo. I think we're going to see a really pumped up Buffalo and a Pittsburgh team that couldn't care less. The back door should be wide open on this one. Seattle +1: Another game with great value on the home dog. The Chiefs have been really struggling lately and Seattle is great at home. The Seahawks haven't lost a game at home with Hassleback at QB. They are in fact 3-0 ATS at home with Hassleback at the helm. I don't see anything being different here. Baltimore -7 (bought the hook): I like rooting for the Bucs. They have Freeman and Blount and Mike Williams who are all fun to watch. But, they can't compete against the top teams. They lost by 25 to the Steelers, 25 to the Saints and Atlanta fell asleep at the wheel when they were up 13. I can't see them competing here against one of the top teams in the league. Chicago +3: I know Philly has looked great lately, but I really like getting 3 points with a 7-3 team. The Bears have been playing well as of late. Philly is coming off 2 huge wins, blowing out Washington on MNF and then a great win against the Giants last week. I think they might not come in prepared to fight for this one. That's all for now, but I'll probably have another 2 or 3 games tomorrow. Leans: Houston -6 Cleveland -9.5 (yeah, I might be the only person on the planet that likes this bet) |
HappytoWin | 6 |
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One last one, San Diego St. -24
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HappytoWin | 4 |
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Wow, I'm out of it. Topic should be NHL Saturday.
Another play... Phoenix ML 1.75 units to win 1 unit |
HappytoWin | 2 |
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YTD: 9-6 +2.63 units
Today's plays: Buffalo ML 1 unit to win 1.2 units Ottawa ML 1.45 units to win 1 unit Florida ML 1 unit to win 1.75 units More plays to come later... Comments always appreciated!
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HappytoWin | 2 |
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Also adding...
Stanford -14 Louisiana Tech -13.5 S. Carolina -3
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HappytoWin | 4 |
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Adding
Vanderbilt -5: Coached resign = money
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HappytoWin | 4 |
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Today's plays:
Cinci +2: Too much offense for UConn. UConn pretty overrated right now. Syracuse -3 (bought hook): In what should be a really boring game, Cuse has slightly more offensive firepower to get the job done. Michigan St. -1.5: Sparty is significantly better then Penn St. this year. Penn St. hasn't had a good win all year (or even competed in games against good teams). Miami -11.5: BJ Daniels isn't himself this year due to injury. Jacory Harris might start. This game should be a blowout. Cal -7: Cal wins big for bowl eligibility. They are too tough at home, I don't expect Washington's defense to play like last week. LSU +3.5: Getting points with LSU is a gift. Florida +2.5: Getting points with Florida in this game is a gift too. FSU doesn't really have an impressive win this season (Clemson, maybe?) Wisconsin -23: This game has blowout written all over it. Wisconsin seems super pumped up for it, Northwestern can't stop the run at all. Uh oh. Duke +7.5: I don't see UNC getting pumped up for this at all. Duke will be. Miss St. -3: Don't be fooled by last week, Ole Miss is garbage this year. Massoli is going to need to have a huge game for them to have a chance. Hahahahaha. Not happening. I don't bet totals, but here are some leans I have: BC/Cuse Under 37 Cinci/UConn Over 56 LSU/Arkansas Over 54 Wisconsin/Northwester Over 57.5 Mississippi/Mississippi St. Under 54 Wake Forest/Vanderbilt Over 49.5 |
HappytoWin | 4 |
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Boise St. has no argument for the national championship now. Even if they win tonight, barely winning in Nevada doesn't make a case at all. Talk about a choke job.
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Elstarko | 19 |
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You're out of your mind. Auburn is better on both sides of the ball. You're talking about Pac 10 vs. SEC and it's not close.
However, Boise St. is better than both these teams.
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ashlandarrows22 | 16 |
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Carolina ML 1 unit to win 1.6 units Win
New Jersey ML 1.15 units to win 1 unit Loss Ottawa ML 1 unit to win 1.5 units Loss Minnesota ML 1.1 units to win 1 unit Win Tampa Bay ML 1 unit to win 1.7 units Loss Buffalo ML 1.6 units to win 1 unit Win 3-3 on the day +0.45 units. 2.57 units YTD now |
HappytoWin | 7 |
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Wow Tampa sucks...
Buffalo ML 1.6 units to win 1 unit
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HappytoWin | 7 |
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