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Good luck today. Lots of rivalry series this weekend with plenty more data points to gather insights from. Expecting a strong weekend!
See you monday
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totalguy | 3 |
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Good luck today.
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totalguy | 8 |
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Thanks for the picks. Good luck today.
Do you play the Y/N over the weekends? My best 2 days since all-star break has been a saturday and a sunday. I feel lines are much weaker and slower to move. Also max number of games on those days (as opposed to some mon, wed, thurs).Thoughts? Hansel
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totalguy | 5 |
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Thanks for posting the addl picks. Im pretty much with you on most picks most days except i rarely pay the juice on your NO 2 unit picks since (a) theyre pricey to begin with and (b) based on the 3 books i use, i cant find the prices youre getting. My YES prices are always better than yours, but my NO prices are always worse.
I tried to open a pinnacle account because they provided outs that were noticably different than what i already use, but i didnt realize they dont accept US deposits. Oh well. Looking forward to your picks on monday! |
totalguy | 6 |
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Good luck and have a great weekend.
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totalguy | 6 |
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Good luck today.
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totalguy | 3 |
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Pitching change in ARI/PHI game?
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totalguy | 8 |
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Good luck today and this weekend as well.
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totalguy | 8 |
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Good luck today.
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totalguy | 11 |
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It does look like a heavy YES day.
Ill pass on the HOU/MIL and TOR/SEA game, but the rest look good. Even the TOR game appears to have some good Y value, however. Good luck to all!
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totalguy | 27 |
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8 or 9 outs with 5 games sharing start times...do you have a day job? That sounds like a fulltime job in and of itself!!! ..and with all the juicy arb opps, you probably Quit your day job and did this fulltime from april to september.
Thats the beauty of imperfect information markets. I wish i knew about sportsbetting back then. Maybe in a few years, there will be 2nd inning YES/NO props. With all this new in-game betting and exotic props, books are finding more creative ways to generate volume. Lastly, i find some books move their YN lines a LOT before game time and i dont think it has anything to do with the actual game. I think they re-calibrate in order to minimize their risk across the board. In other words, if they lost money on earlier games, theyll try to push the market one way or another with an afternoon game by changing lines. Provides more arb opps right before gametime. I learn something new everyday and always look forward to your picks. Thanks. |
totalguy | 18 |
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Thanks. This isnt a pure arb opp; its just positive EV (you can win or lose, but expected value is positive based on finding best value across different books). For every 15 games, theres 3 or 4 positive EV plays. I look at 2 or 3 different books.
For every 45-60 games (assuming 15/day), there are 1 or 2 pure arb plays. thats where ill get +105 on the YES and +100 or +105 on the NO. Happened on saturday with the NYM/ARI game. It was actually +100 YES and +110 on the NO for about 30minutes. So i just kept buying and buying the max until the line changed. And when it went to 100/105, i kept buying until the lines equilibrated. This is pure arb because you have zero risk with either YES or NO. The bad thing is that with this game, i was leaning towards YES and alas, it ended up a YES. So i didnt win any money that day because YES was +100 the whole time but if it was a NO, i would have had 10% free return on the NO money. But since i had to lay equal money on the YEs at another book, mathematically its 5% return. But its free money! I actually went 8-0 on that saturday. Best Y/N day ive had. And that was without the benefit of your Y/N lines which i use as a double check. I gave some of it away on sunday however, but made up for the bad sunday with a decent day yesterday. I didnt crush like you did with the 8-1 but i tripled down on the ARI game. The best is +105 on YES and +105 on NO. Thats no risk/full return arb. Tough to find and the window is short. The key is to maximize the number of outs you have. Im going to open up a pinnacle accoutn since they haVe good lines. From what you said in the past, in the good old years, these opportunities abounded. |
totalguy | 18 |
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Good luck! You crushed it yesterday....only missed 1!
Today i think best value is TB/OAK with O/U at 7. Im seeing +120 and +125. im with you on this one. 5 or 6 factors point to YES and only 2 point to NO. I think this is mis-priced just like the ARI/LAD game yesterday which could have been gotten at +120 in the AM before ending at 100 at all the offshore shops at gametime. Also like CLE and the CHW games although theyre a tad pricey. I may lay the juice if both games drop a bit since hochevar and blackburn are 2 of the worst 1st inning pitchers...hence the juice. I think -135 is too expensive on the SFG game. Im hedging with a 50/50 position on YES +140 and NO -135 and taking the 7cents of value. Hope you have another day like yesterday. |
totalguy | 18 |
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Jenneke. So nice.
Good luck.
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totalguy | 9 |
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He's back!
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totalguy | 5 |
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A rare weekend post. Keep it up and good luck!
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totalguy | 5 |
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Good luck
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totalguy | 3 |
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Totalguy posts every day except weekends and holidays....like clockwork. Keep it up!
Today is brutal!
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clugger | 22 |
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Good luck
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totalguy | 9 |
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Good luck!
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totalguy | 3 |
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