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@dubz4dummyz Nobody gives a shit about your lifetime record. |
NYBartender | 93 |
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replied to
***Macwesties Sat. Nov. 7, 2020 * NCAAF * Week #10 * College Football Plays***
in College Football Just wanted to post I believe you’re one of the best cappers on this forum. I always review your bets before punching my tickets. You’re gonna get hot here to end the year, book it. |
Macwestie1 | 56 |
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Playing the under against a team that can hit homers is a stressful proposition.
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JohnAnthony56 | 3 |
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Quote Originally Posted by soryu4: Yeah, I guess Id go with listing winning percentages instead of ROI, (which was mentioned in the first post) if I had to choose between displaying -58% and 22% One can make a lot of money if the 22% of wins were +1000 plays...but they're not. I would even go as far as to say that if you're going to keep inefficient records, why keep records? If I gave you a thousand of something, wouldn't you want to know the unit. $1000 is a lot different than 1000 cents. Winning percentages mean very little in the gambling industry. |
jaydeez40oz | 125 |
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I disagree, Log. To each their own, but I have never found the game to be more enjoyable. With all the advanced statistics and pitch tracking easily accessible to the fans, it brings the game experience to an all new level. We can view tendencies, both pitcher and hitter, almost by the minute. It's insanely deep. Maybe that's not for you and that's fine, but I find it highly engaging. There are a ton of great websites out there to get you up to speed and I'd highly recommend it if you feel the game is lacking in perceptual enjoyment.
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KeyElement | 104 |
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Also, so we're on the same page here, much like ERA, SIERA is a backward looking estimator and not a forward looking projection system. That is a mildly important distinction. You obviously use sabermetrics which is neat, but make sure you realize we gamble on the future not the past.
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KeyElement | 104 |
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A team that plays* 162 games...(obviously, my bad).
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KeyElement | 104 |
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-150 odds implies a 60% win percentage. A team that wins 162 games in a season wins 97 games.
I'm sorry but this Cardinals team with Wainwright on the bump isn't a 97 win team against anybody in baseball.
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KeyElement | 104 |
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Papa: What did I say that was wrong? Wainwright is an ace again? The Cardinals aren't a public team? The Brewers can't hit? You may not agree with my conclusion, which is fine, but my reasoning is not flawed.
Are you saying the Cardinals are given a -151 line on merit? Because I would argue that. |
KeyElement | 104 |
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In a capitalistic society, the free market does, right? A price too high and product X doesn't sell, a price too cheap and the company is missing opportunity. So it naturally finds its even level. The hard thing with gambling as oppose to the grocery store is that the line is incredibly blurry and it's not created to find an even level. The table is tilted, and it's not in the consumer's favor.
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KeyElement | 104 |
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Well if someone is selling item X for $.99 and it's actually worth $1 the value of the transaction is $.01. Now whether that one penny of value is worth it is very subjective to the person buying the item.
Unless you are being sarcastic and it's flown right over my head. If so I apologize, it's been a long day. Key does a wonderful job at isolating the card, imo, and it sometimes doesn't work out in any given sample size. He obviously knows this already, but hopefully it helps to read from others that may not post that often (me).
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KeyElement | 104 |
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Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango: And why would you possibly back the Brewers tonight? Just don't see the logic. Please let me know why you like the Brewers. MLB betting is all about value. Wainwright is being given an ace line when he hasn't been an ace in a couple years. The Brewers have a very good offensive team that the public has not cared to notice. So you have a square team with a perceived ace going against a perceived bottom dweller, that's why the line is currently -151 to the Cards. The problem is the Cards aren't throwing an ace, aren't an above average team this year, and the Brewers aren't terrible. Value is the Brew Crew at +141. |
KeyElement | 104 |
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Quote Originally Posted by PlayWithThem: Quote Originally Posted by scratchmyback: 1470 out of the 2185 dogs that won did so by 2 or more runs. Since 4021 dogs lost, that'd mean that your -1.5 lines have to average +274 to break even. If you say you usually get them at +300, it is no surprise you do well with them. The key as you suggested is picking your spots wisely to increase that ROI even more.That is good data! I have apparantly chose wisely as I hit at a better rate than that and I also play dogs at -1.5 regularly to make them +300 or greater. Do you have any data on that? Isn't a ~23.7% winning percentage +321 odds? Just rounding 1500/6000 would be a 25% winning percentage and a +300 to break even (since it won less and they're more games in the sample the % would be smaller). If those are the numbers Vegas is pretty darn sharp on the -1.5 line if you ask me. GL gents. |
KeyElement | 40 |
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#math
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Jerseyboy89 | 23 |
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JR, you have to combine both bets for 1u. There is a math formula to it. Basically a portion of the unit goes to the ML and a portion goes to the Puck Line. This makes it so that if the ML hits and the PL doesn't (a 1 goal game), your ML win pays out your PL loss so you break even. If they win by 2 you win both bets.
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Lippsman | 55 |
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Everyone and their mom is on the over. Food for thought.
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LNU | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by composite: What am I missing? Cleveland's ace against Toronto's 4th pitcher and Cleveland is the dog? Especially with how Toronto bats have been stifled by Andrew Miller and Cody Allen in late innings. Is Kluber lousy with short rest? Is Sanchez great in the postseason? Or, is everyone counting on Toronto "needing to win" while Cleveland can "afford to lose" this game? Aaron Sanchez has the best "stuff" on the Blue Jays' staff. The Jays tried to limit his innings as much as possible this season as he is nearly a decade younger than both Estrada and Happ, but he had a 3.00 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, with 7.5 K/9, all as a 23/24-year-old. He will be a tough and the big thumpers in the Jays lineup have hit well against Kluber. My lean is on the Tribe but just wanted to help out with some additional information.
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KeyElement | 20 |
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They have all day to play them. Not a chance Cleveland leaves Detroit today without getting that game in. Good luck with the plays!
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newmarket | 2 |
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These two squads have to start scoring runs, no? The under seems too logical...
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MoneyMaker212 | 33 |
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5dimes close to game time but you lose the morning line edge. My suggestion is to manufacture your own -1 line by placing bets on both the RL and ML.
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MoneyMotive | 7 |
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