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[Quote: Originally Posted by Data_Capper Should have read.. See how speculation and PREseason play (in which no team game plans) affect the spread? |
Data_Capper | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by rudy22:
first month is a crap shoot. I used to feel like that too. Now I feel like the first month is a STAT shoot. For me it's all about the data. I no longer go into games factoring what I know. I search for angles of information I do not know. I used to analyze games similar to how Moneytalks breaks down some reasons for the OVER play on the ATL/NO game. He used players lost, weak(s) unit of a team and speculation about how one team should emerge victorious. No concrete data in truly determining a plausible outcome. Now I totally agree that this game could go OVER. But I no longer think of players who matter in fantasy football as having a definitive relationship to the game as it applies to ATS or O/U. For me it's not about Brees, Graham or the ATL offense. It's about stats that state 'NFL Week One ROAD FAVS have gone UNDER the total 66% of the time since 1995. How about the last 2 yrs for more recent data. Last 2yrs there were 5 week one nfl ROAD FAVS. The result 4 out 5 games went UNDER. That's 80% UNDER for week one road favs. Data you can bank on and make bank on. I then look at all week one road favs this yr (Pats, 49ers, Saints, and formerly Panthers. The Panthers were road favs before preseason. See how speculation and season play (in which no team game plans) affect the spread? With that and other related info, I am now equipped with stat% that take the crap out of the crap shoot IMO. Best of luck |
Data_Capper | 10 |
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I'm starting to get into teasers but not this season. So good luck with those. Your parlay picks looks solid. Here's a writeup I did on someone else's post who also had the NY/Det game going over. Good Luck!
Solid pics. Although I like the UNDER for the Giants/Lions game. Last 7 times Lions played on Monday night the O/U is 7-0, UNDER. Last yr when they played (in DET), the O/U was 47 and the score was 23-20. Another reason I like the under is these teams meaningful players haven't played since the third preseason game. Next time they hit the field, more than 2 weeks will have gone by without competitive action. IMO, it will result in a slow start. However your over pick has merit as Det has opened the season at home last 2 yrs with the O/U 46 each yr. They have gone over both yrs. Extra tid bit- the Giants are 2-10 ATS w/ revenge. Giants won in Det after a Stafford pick late. |
Data_Capper | 10 |
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Good luck to you all season. I'll be heading down there on Friday.
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Data_Capper | 10 |
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Ravens to cover- (- 2.5) vs. Bengals. Last yr was the first time under Harbaugh that the Ravens didn't cover the spread opening day. Or should I say Opening Night? The ravens historically play low scoring prime time games, so last yrs Thurs night opener aside, we're talking 5 str8 yrs of ATS wins and 2 times the Bengals were the opposing team opening day. Also last yr was only the second time under Harbaugh that the Ravens have had to travel on opening day. The last time was 2010 vs. Jets in primetime. The score 10-9 Bal. So without the 2 night road openers, the Ravens have opened at home and done well during the day. Also they do well ATS w/revenge. Last game Bal played was a 34-17 loss to Cin. They've had all season long to focus on the team that ended their season. Last time this happened( in REVENGE terms), 2010 playoffs- Balt loses to Pitt in div round. FIRST game of the next yr? Pitt at Balt. Result 35-7 Balt win. Players remember who ends their season |
Covers | 16 |
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My play is ATL/Saints- UNDER (50.5- 51.5).
My reasoning? Well, first this game has not gone OVER 50 in ATL in 6 years, going back to M. Smith's rookie yr. Going back further, data shows it's been only TWICE in the last 10 yrs this game has gone OVER 50. That's 2-10 Under 50 pts last 10 yrs in ATL, coaching changes and all. Additionally, the Falcons will be starting the season at home for the first time in 4 yrs. Last time they started at home, low scoring w/vs. Mia. Aside from 2012, the last 4 home openers for ATL the total has not even eclipsed 43. |
Covers | 25 |
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Here are a few of my parlay picks for Week One Del Park half point parlay and Off the board. My spreads & O/U listed are from my OFF the BOARD picks I got in a couple weeks ago 1. ATL/Saints- UNDER (52.5). My reasoning? Well, first this game has not gone OVER 50 in ATL in 6 years, going back to M. Smith's rookie yr. Going back further, data shows it's been only TWICE in the last 10 yrs this game has gone OVER 50. That's 2-10 Under 50 pts last 10 yrs in ATL, coaching changes and all. Additionally, the Falcons will be starting the season at home for the first time in 4 yrs. Last time they started at home, low scoring w/vs. Mia. Aside from 2012, the last 4 home openers for ATL the total has not even eclipsed 43. 2. Ravens to cover- (- 2.5) vs. Bengals. Last yr was the first time under Harbaugh that the Ravens didn't cover the spread opening day. Or should I say Opening Night? The ravens historically play low scoring prime time games, so last yrs Thurs night opener aside, we're talking 5 str8 yrs of ATS wins and 2 times the Bengals were the opposing team opening day. Also last yr was only the second time under Harbaugh that the Ravens have had to travel on opening day. The last time was 2010 vs. Jets in primetime. The score 10-9 Bal. So without the 2 night road openers, the Ravens have opened at home and done well during the day. Also they do well ATS w/revenge. Last game Bal played was a 34-17 loss to Cin. They've had all season long to focus on the team that ended their season. Last time this happened( in REVENGE terms), 2010 playoffs- Balt loses to Pitt in div round. FIRST game of the next yr? Pitt at Balt. Result 35-7 Balt win. Players remember who ends their season. 3. Pittsburgh to cover (-7) AND UNDER (41) vs. Browns A lot of data here. This game in PIT has not gone over 40 pts in 3 yrs. In fact from M. Tomlin has only scored MORE than 41 pts in PIT vs. CLE ONCE, his rookie yr. All other games in PIT,UNDER. PIT last 3 home openers, the total never got to 30 pts. This will be the first time the Browns open on the road in 3 yrs. Further,for CLE in the last 5 openers(4 in CLE) the total went over 40 once. Possible rev factor here. Using the same logic from the prior pick, PIT has ended CLE season 2 str8 yrs. However both times, the SPR was >9 fav PIT and they covered.
Feedback? I have more parlay picks and twisted logic. |
Data_Capper | 10 |
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Yes, Natty they are geniuses. NJ did cause a bit of this wound to be self inflicted. They let the deadline pass a few yrs ago to be one of 2 states (DEL) on the east to get grandfathered in as the only states to allow sports betting. Then the NFL said nope. But their position is strictly about greed. So all we have on the East is Del Park and their offerings. I play mostly their parlays, off the board and the half point parlays(darn hook)
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rudy22 | 6 |
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Solid pics. Although I like the UNDER for the Giants/Lions game. Last 7 times Lions played on Monday night the O/U is 7-0, UNDER. Last yr when they played (in DET), the O/U was 47 and the score was 23-20. Another reason I like the under is these teams meaningful players haven't played since the third preseason game. Next time they hit the field, more than 2 weeks will have gone by without competitive action. IMO, it will result in a slow start. However your over pick has merit as Det has opened the season at home last 2 yrs with the O/U 46 each yr. They have gone over both yrs. Extra tid bit- the Giants are 2-10 ATS w/ revenge. Giants won in Det after a Stafford pick late. |
Rain_Man | 45 |
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