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Week 1-Buffalo Bills W
Week 2-Oakland Raiders W Week 3-New England Patriots W Week 4-Seattle Seahawks W We are super handcuffed this week. PITTSBURGH STEELERS Since Bortles joined the Jaguars in 2014, he is 3-21 on the road as a starter. We all know that the Steelers are a much better team at home as they are 20-7 at home since 2014. What do the Jaguars do well? Defend the pass. However, they are bottom of the league in rush defense so far this year. The Steelers have the best running back in the league with Leveon Bell, looking for him to make a big difference in this one. Taking the Eagles was surely an option this week. However, there are a few things why I will pass on this game. The Eagles' secondary is absolutely exploitable. The Cardinals have absolutely no run game and if Carson Palmer is airing it out all game, something will break down in the Eagles secondary. Yes, the Eagles pass rush is elite and I do believe Carson will take 5+ sacks again with their pitiful O-line. But Fletcher Cox is out and I feel if we look ahead to the Eagles schedule we can find two gems. They are at home Vs the 49ers, then Home Vs the Bears if we need to use them then. The Steelers don't really have anything too juicy on their upcoming schedule. We use them here. BOL
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CautionerSports | 11 |
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Week 1- Buffalo Bills W
Week 2- Oakland Raiders W Week 3- New England Patriots W We are still alive and this week and we play it safe again. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Not worried about the questionable tags that the Seahawks have on the injury report. Teams don't go into Seattle and win. Especially an Andrew Luck-less Colts team. The Colts offensive line is arguably the worst, producing a league worst 2.7 YPC on the ground. They have also already given up 11 sacks which is near the bottom of the league. Since Russell Wilson started in 2012, the Seahawks are 40-6 at home, best among any NFL team since. Three of those losses were against division rival AZ Cardinals. NONE of the 6 losses were vs an AFC team. Gl Gl
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CautionerSports | 11 |
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Week 1- Buffalo Bills W
Week 2- Oakland Raiders W There will be a lot of upsets this week, no reason to get too fancy. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Packers have two offensive tackles that are questionable, and Bengals are on 10 days rest with a new offensive coordinator. Let's just avoid that situation. Eagles are a great play this week in my opinion. Eagles pass rush will be too quick for this Giants awful O-line. But in a division rivalry and Eli Manning capable of anything, not going to over complicate decisions in only week 3 of a survivor. BOL
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CautionerSports | 11 |
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Steelers last 27 home games*
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CautionerSports | 6 |
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Our week 1 trends did NOT hold up and we went 1-5. We move onto Week 2 with one 10pt Teaser.
The Browns are 2-22 last 24 on the road vs their division. The Steelers last 27 games have had totals over 35 in 26 of the 27. Let's get one back and bet: Ravens +2, Steelers/Vikings OVER 35.5, Eagles/Chiefs UND 57.5
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CautionerSports | 6 |
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Week 1 - Buffalo Bills W
Our week 2 pick will be another popular one but this one is a no-doubter OAKLAND RAIDERS The only argument to for not using them is to save them for later down the road. There are NO spots to use this team. Their schedule gets tough. Fading the New York Jets most of the season will be quite effective. They were on the road last week at Buffalo, now they are heading all the way to the west coast against a playoff-bound Raiders team. Look for Marshawn Lynch to have a huge game and the Raiders to dominate this the whole way.
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CautionerSports | 11 |
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Great analysis glyde, I do agree with your points. There is absolutely risk involved here as I can see the jets putting up a great fight once in a while. I am also concerned about the lack of practice time the Jordan Matthews and Tyrod have had together, in case their running game like you said isn't rolling.
But, this is truly the only spot all year we can use the Bills in a survivor pool. This is worth the gamble in my opinion. I'm not burning the Patriots this soon, and the Texans is arguably just as good of a play. But all of the Hurricane noise has me wondering what kind of preparation the Texans have done.
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CautionerSports | 11 |
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Week 1 survivor pool pick:
Buffalo Bills over the NY Jets. This will obviously be a very popular pick but with a healthy Tyrod Taylor, and the Jets just shipping off Sheldon Richardson, this seems too easy. We have a home team here vs a team that may not even try to win games this season. Staying away from road favorites in week 1 like the Falcons and the Steelers. In a survivor pool selecting road teams early on isn't quite necessary unless there aren't any other options on the board. We have three solid options in the Patriots, Bills, and Texans. The Texans would be a very solid play but if we look ahead with scheduling, the Texans host the Browns in week 6 which makes it tempting to save them for that game. Also with the flooding in Houston from the Hurricane....while that may create magic for the home crowd, that probably also has caused them to miss out on some preparation. Patriots also would be a solid week 1 pick, but we will need to save them for another spot when options become limited. |
CautionerSports | 11 |
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My week 1 10pt Teaser Plays:
1) Chiefs +17.5, Texans +5.5, Rams/Colts UND 56.5 2) Chiefs +17.5, Bills +3.5, Texans +5.5 3) Texans +5.5, Jags/Texans UND 51.5, Cardinals +11.5 4) Bills +3.5, Chiefs/Pats UND 58.5, Rams/Colts UND 56.5 5) Chiefs +17.5, Jags/Texans UND 51.5, Rams/Colts UND 56.5 6) Cardinals +11.5, Bills +3.5, Chiefs +17.5 Good luck Good luck !
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CautionerSports | 6 |
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There is value in 10pt teasers! At my book, a 3-team 10pt teaser pays -120. All we gotta do is go at least 55% to show profit, and after betting these last year, we can soar past this benchmark.
Tons of week 1 trends to talk about for 10pt teasers. -Since 2013, the Chiefs with Andy Reid are 67-1 when getting +17.5! -In season openers Andy Reid as a head coach is 18-0 when getting +17.5. -Giving Andy Reid just +8 in week 1 or off a bye, he is 32-4. -Andy Reid's avg total in week 1 is 40.55. Belichicks avg total since 1999 is 45.76. -Last 28 Texans are 28-0 under a 51.5 number. -Last 12 Jags/Texans games under 51.5 would be 11-1. -Jaguars last 24 games on the road they are 2-22. -Since 2012, the Jaguars on the road trying to cover -5.5 they would be 1-39!! |
CautionerSports | 6 |
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I also agree on the under! Since 1999 Andy Reid's season opening games have averaged 40.55, and Belichick's season openers have averaged 45.76.
Two amazing head coaches clashing on the Thursday Night NFL opener, it is really hard to see a blowout and/or a shootout.
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Jrod6 | 15 |
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Great analysis Porcelain. Some of these concepts to this 49ers game is why I am looking to bet OVER 48. 49ers will put up 27 points in this one
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porcelainfist | 43 |
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I like this bet. Andy Reid is a boss with time to prepare and with the Chiefs always dominating the turnover battle, they will be in the game the whole way. 24-20 final score.
Also fun 10pt teaser play: As a head coach Andy Reid has NEVER lost by more than 17 in week 1. His teams are 18-0 getting 17.5
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Jrod6 | 15 |
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About that Patriots play.....Andy Reid DOES NOT get blown out with time to prepare. And watch out for Tyreke Hill. They dumped Maclin because they know they have a beast. Opening night Tyreke Hill 11 catches 140yds 2TDs.
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HedgingHedges | 8 |
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I mean taking Jaguars on the road is just so bold. This is a team that is 2-22 on the road since 2014. Texans money line may have some value here. 2 wins, 22 losses! Ha
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porcelainfist | 43 |
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Porcelain curious on your thoughts on this trend. Since Bill O'Brien joined Texans in 2014, he is 15-5-1 ATS as a favorite. Do you consider this a meaningful statistic?
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porcelainfist | 43 |
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Jags/Texans under 42 should be a very solid play. Last year, Texans had 11 games go under 42 and had ZERO games total in the 50s. Assuming we avoid a Bortles pick 6, this under cashes.
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porcelainfist | 43 |
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It will be interesting to see what the intensity of raider nation will be like knowing the Raiders are on there way to Vegas. The Raiders might have lost a lot of power for their home field advantage
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DaSaltySluG | 7 |
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Good luck good luck . Its good to see the NFL threads start popping up already
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HedgingHedges | 8 |
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I agree that the NYG/DAL line is off. This line is super inflated as this line seems to always stay -3 for the home team. Giants went 2-0 vs them last year and have one of the most underrated defenses in the league.
Also Primetime Sunday night game division rivalry I think we will get a nailbiter in this one. Ill be looking to play the Giants
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BeachedWhaleee | 15 |
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