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Slight play on Fresno State on this one. 1) I think they are clearly better on offense, but they match up fairly evenly on the defensive side of the ball. 2) They have both played a similair schedule of mountain west nobodies so I can't give a nod to one team or the other for strength of schedule. 3) Generally I don't factor motivation when I'm breaking down a game, but Fresno has already won their division and will most likely win the mountain west. The only thing they have to play for is an undefeated season. San Jose, on the other hand, is sitting at five wins and needs this one to be bowl eligible. As I stated earlier, I do believe Fresno is the better team, but I don't like the movement in the spread. Opened at -8 1/2, then went down to 7 1/2, now edging back up to 8 & 8 1/2 in some books. Thats a lot of movement........... |
Covers | 23 |
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It has been my experience that Vegas books operate on epistemic probability, which is a type of bayesian statistic. Epistemic probability simply are degrees of rational belief. I agree: the books don't care what the line should be, they focus on what people believe is the most probable outcome and set their lines by that. In this case, A LOT of people lost A LOT of money on Michigan against Akron & UCONN, therefore the belief is Michigan is underperforming. People will be hesitant to pull the trigger on Michigan again so to make the game more enticing to betters they slapped a low spread on it. For those who still have a bad taste in their mouth from the past few Michigan losses (ATS) they may take 2 points and go Penn State.
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Covers | 43 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by vue21849]
WESTERN MICHIGAN + 10 I read through these and compare them to my picks and I noticed vue is pretty accurate. That being said, I would really like to know what you see in Western Michigan here. This is a team that has lost to everyone they have played, including division AA Nicholls State. They have a yard-per-point average of 21.42 and their defense gives up an average of 440 yards per game. Granted Buffalo's defense gives up a boat-load of yards also but they seem to be able to keep the ball out of the endzone. Kicking out Buffalos first two games as they played teams who SHOULD have beat the crap out of them, they have averaged 36 points of offense and given up an average of 16 points. My power rankings call for a 20 point Buffalo win. I am eager to hear what you see in Western Michigan........ |
Covers | 16 |
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Line moved to -2 in Vegas, but still...........seriously??? I have been staring at this for two days trying to figure out why this line is only at 2. I DO believe Michigan is overrated. They are ranked 16th and the only impressive thing they have done all season is beat up on Notre Dame. But then that's more than Penn State has managed to do. Michigan has a 10.28 yard-per-point average and their defense allows an average of 305 yards per game. The two defenses are comparable but Michigans offence is almost twice as efficient. Three sets of my power rankings call for a 12 point Michigan win and I have to take a 10 point differential.
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Covers | 43 |
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Three sets of my power rankings call for a 14 point North Texas win. Actuallu one calls for a 17 point win but I'm averaging. Monroe was blown out by Western Kentucky & Tulane while North Texas pullde off a win against Wyoming, who is a pretty decent Mountain West team...as decent as a mountain west team can get anyway. I am a bit put-off by Texas State's loss to UL-Lafayette but it was on the road and everyone has a bad game. |
Covers | 4 |
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