Arid_Torpor

Member Since:November 2005
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Adding Kentucky +26. I'll believe Georgia comes out firing this week when I see it.  View
1-3 last week drops me below .500 for the year. What an awful year. Well, still going this week. This is what I'm on. May be worth a fade at least. 

*ECU -5.5. They're just the better team here, right? 
*Iowa State -4. Do not believe in Kansas. 
*LSU/A&M over 73.5. When A&M is involved, the points fall like rain. 
*Arkansas +1. They had a week off while Mississippi State played Alabama. I like that. Also, they do seem to be improving a bit. 
*Virginia +20.5. Do they played unreasonably well against Miami every year? They seem to. 
*UTEP +16. I really don't trust Tulane to win big. They've learned to win, but they're still winning close. 
*Louisiana Tech +3. I think Tulsa has mailed it in on the season and Tech hasn't. 
*Coastal Carolina +34.5. My cousin is CCU's QB, and I'm putting my money behind him. South Carolina is in a bit of a sandwich spot, and CCU has a very good FCS offense, although their D is cause for concern. 
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ASU/OSU over 64.5 played. 

Thanks for the weather tip on Wisconsin, kearney. Looks like it's saving me some cash
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Went ahead and put cash down on CMU and USA View
Well, the Washington game didn't go well, but it looked to me more a function of their QB getting injured than any sort of motivation issues. 

Wisconsin's defense honestly doesn't scare me (if Indy put up 28 on Michigan State, they're putting up points on anyone), but wind does. Thanks. 
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Went ahead and grabbed Washington +3 (-113) View
2-2-1 last week makes 42-42-2 this year. I'm a coin! If anyone has thoughts on my thoughts for this week, they'd be appreciated. 

*Indiana/Wisconsin over 69. Indiana can drag anybody into a shootout (even Michigan State), and their defense seems the sort that Wisconsin can really get moving against. 

*Arizona State/Oregon State over 64. Arizona State will score 50 if you let them, and OSU has a defense that just might. But an offense that will put up a few of their own. 

*Washington +2.5. I think this is the better team. They looked awful in Tempe, but I'm willing to chalk that up to built-up exhaustion after Stanford and Oregon in consecutive weeks. They're back now, and I'll get back to backing them. 

*Central Michigan -2.5. All the directional Michigans are awful this year. Central is a good bit less awful than the other two. 

*South Alabama +7.5. Favorite pick of the week. I love teams with an extra week to prep against the option, and USA is really not half bad in their own right. 


I also have a bizarre temptation to take Kansas, but I can't think of any good football reasons to talk myself into it. 
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2-5-1 last week thanks to the half point loss by MTSU and a good line grab on Pitt. So I continue to suck this year, don't follow me. 40-40-1 overall. 

This is what I'm playing this week. 

*ND -3. This line looks like I'm being tricked into something. In the Mizzou/Kentucky game, that's enough to scare me away, because maybe it's a letdown and maybe UK plays over their heads and I dunno. But I basically just need the Irish to win here, right? And they're still the better team, right? Okay, so problem? I'm going square on this one, we'll see how it goes. 

*WKU -6. They completely shut down Navy, so presumably should be able to shut down Army, which is like Navy except worse. 

*VT +6.5. I like their defense to keep it close, especially after last week for Miami. 

*Alabama/LSU under 55. I know LSU's offense is a lot better this year, but does this line seem absurdly high given the tendencies of this game to go low-scoring? 

*UNT -25. They have some fairly noticeable home/road splits, and the Mean Green are often a good bet for a blowout at home. They're at home today and playing an awful team. 
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Locked in: 

Pitt +11
Cuse -4.5
Indy -8
UTSA +3.5
MTSU -3.5
Tulane +2.5
ECU -24.5. 

I'm all about some CUSA away teams this week. That can often be a recipe for disaster. Hope it doesn't reach up and bite me this week. 
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Getting heavily into NHL (just watching, not betting) has really cut into my capping time, and it's shown in my record. Watching all five seasons of Breaking Bad in the last two months probably didn't help either. 

But with a 4-2 week last week, I'm still keeping barely afloat at 38-35 overall (thanks, -105 pricing!). Have a few more thoughts for this week, and I'd like to get some thoughts if you folks have them. 

*Tennessee +13. This one has been locked in since Sunday, but I still like it at +10. This will be the first time I've bet on my Vols all season, but I think Mizzou is likely as not to come out flat after a heartbreaking loss last week. Also, Tennessee is starting a true freshman QB this week, who is significantly more talent than the guy he's replacing. The Vols have had some success with this over the years (see: Manning, Clausen, Bray), and I expect to see them move the ball more consistently this week. 

The rest of these are not locked in, but they're all on my consideration list. I'd like to solicit thoughts from elsewhere. Hit me if you've got 'em. 

*Pittsburgh +10.5. I think playing option teams two weeks in a row will provide a significant benefit, and GT is a bit Jekyll and Hyde anyways. 

*Syracuse -5. Buy low, sell high. Can't see Wake stopping the run here. 

*MTSU -3.5. I think this is a mismatch. MTSU is a mid-tier CUSA team, and UAB is a bottom-tier one. 

*UTSA +3.5. I'm not sure at what point Tulsa mails it in after an awful season by their standards, but even if they haven't, the Roadrunners are playing just as well at this point. 

*Tulane +2. Better team is an underdog here. I'm honestly not sure why, but I'll take it. 

*ECU -26. Pure mismatch, should be murder. 

*Indiana -8.5. Minnesota has looked really good the last couple weeks, but Indiana has the kind of team that can get a lead and get you away from what you want to do. Minnesota isn't built to come back. 

*WVU +13. TCU didn't even beat Kansas by this margin. I know the Mountaineers are a bit schizo, but I don't trust the Frogs. 
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No way am I going to try to blame that loss on Mauk trying to win it in the second OT. Not a chance.  View
Dobbs is starting for Tennessee. He's a better passer and a better runner than Worley, who he's replacing, but he's much less experienced. If you're considering either Tennessee or Missouri and want to get a feel for what to expect, this six-and-a-half minute video shows every collegiate snap Dobbs has ever taken: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTw0ZeXR_fM View
It's worth point out that the freshman backup QB for Tennessee is significantly more talented than the guy who's been playing all season. Jones was trying really hard to redshirt the freshmen, and it didn't work out because both non-freshmen are now injured. So the Vols are essentially trading experience for talent. I don't know how that will work out (my suspicion is an offense that can move the ball better but makes more mistakes), but it's not your standard "assume a big dropoff without the starting QB" thing.  View
As soon as that FG went off the upright, I told myself I was taking a hard look at whoever Missouri played next week. That's a heartbreaking way to lose, especially after being undefeated, in the top five, and having a 17-0 fourth quarter lead. I don't know how Pinkel does at avoiding letdowns, but that's the type of loss that seems really tough to come back from. 

Of course, I knew who was playing Missouri next week. I think Tennessee can hold up just fine in the trenches (since Tennessee holds up just fine in the trenches against everybody except Alabama), but the size and athleticism of Missouri's WRs is a major matchup concern. Tennessee's secondary is a major weakness, with a walkon running back starting at nickel and a true freshman as the best corner. Add into that a nagging shoulder injury to the best safety, and it's a cause for concern. Don't ask me how they held Connor Shaw to 7/21. I was at that game and I still don't understand. 

Tennessee hasn't named a starting quarterback, but most Vols fans are hoping for true freshman Josh Dobbs, who looked surprisingly competent in a second half full of garbage time in Tuscaloosa after Justin Worley aggravated a thumb injury yesterday. 

I'm not gonna lie, I'm a bit surprised to see the Tigers favored by 13. I expected something closer to 7. I don't like betting on my own team, but I've got Tennessee in this one. Thoughts? 
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Again, just posting for tracking purposes. Don't follow me because I suck this year. 1-3 last week for a total of 34-33 on the year. Of course, my two (unplayed) posted leans last week both won in dominating fashion. That kind of year. 

Six plays this week: 

*NC State +34. This is the first one I looked for when the lines came out. FSU off a huge win, playing an inferior opponent, with a major rival next week? Every ingredient for a game that's unreasonably close. 

*Troy +10. I just don't understand this line at all. Troy hasn't been good this year, but neither has WKU. And Troy has been able to pretty well keep up with everybody outside the SEC. 

*South Carolina +3. I was at that game last week, and I'm still not sure how Tennessee's secondary managed to do what they did. But I still, for whatever reason, think South Carolina is a good team (and Dylan Thompson is a capable backup) and Missouri is a touch overrated. Was nervous about fading Mizzou after blowing it so badly last week, but bgk and sizzle are on the cocks, so I feel better about following. 

*Baylor -35. Yeah, it's a road game. Yeah, Oklahoma is next. If Oklahoma were next week instead of 12 days away, it might give me pause. But this is a ridiculous mismatch. 

*SDSU/Fresno over 63.5. I missed some line value by getting to this game late, but Fresno loves them some shootouts, and San Diego State should be happy to oblige. 

*UCLA/Oregon over 73.5. Pretty much the same story as the last game. UCLA isn't playing Stanford this week. 

Also lean to TAMU/Vandy over, because I think TAMU can give up points to your grandmother, but Robinette starting does concern me a little, so I think I'll lay off. 
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Locked the four leans in. Arizona at -3.5, all others at those lines. 

I honestly don't see much to love this week. Next lean is probably Georgia Tech, because bouncing back and beating a mid-tier ACC team who just beat a bad ACC team is classic Georgia Tech. But I'm not sure I feel strongly enough to bet it.

One of the more intriguing games on the board, IMO, is Washington/ASU. I'm not sure what Washington did to the schedule-makers, but following up Stanford and Oregon with a road trip to the desert is not kind at all. That said, the Huskies are the better team, and it's not like they lost last week in any sort of unexpected fashion. Will they be hungover or focused? I'd lean ASU, but again, not enough to play. 
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Yeah, I have the same feeling about Indy, Bandos. The line opened lower than I would've expected, and the line has moved towards Michigan despite them shitting the bed last week. But they're coming off a tough game, it's their last game before a bye and their rivalry, and their defense hasn't really shown the ability to keep an offense like Indiana's in check. This seems like a shootout that Michigan ends up winning by 3 to 7 points.  View
finally hit a couple last week, and 6-2 for the week brought me back above water at 33-30 for the year. 

Not seeing a lot I love this week. Here are my initial thoughts: 

*Kent State +7. These folks aren't as bad as their record looks. Their schedule has been tough, and this week it eases off a bit against an opponent that does nothing but play close games. 

*Arizona -4. I just don't see Utah turning around and putting in another performance like that last week. 

*Indiana +9.5. Michigan lets teams hang around, Indiana is expert in hanging around. 

*Florida -3. Although I'm less confident with Murphy playing through a shoulder injury, I still think Florida's defense (against a backup QB) will be enough to pull it out
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With you on Utah, against on Georgia Tech. GL this week.  View
Buffalo -10.5
Utah +7.5
OSU/WSU over 62.5
Wyoming -14
UNLV -8

And that should do it for this week. 
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Last week was one of those that makes you want to give up. 3-6 on official plays. 2-0 on posted leans that I didn't play. And those six losses included a six-point underdog that lost in overtime (by seven) and Northwestern. And, well, you know about Northwestern. 

27-28 overall. I'm finally losing to the coin toss. I've not been putting in the time and it shows. I'm posting my picks for tracking purposes, and I certainly appreciate input, but do not tail me. 

Locked in: 

*BYU -7. These teams aren't that different from last year's dominant BYU performance, and the Cougars are at home this time. I think they know how to stop the option and will have little trouble doing so. 

*Boston College +24. They've actually been showing some pulse, and I don't think Clemson lays on the steam the week before FSU. Love this game. 

*Wisconsin -10. I think Northwestern gave everything they had last week and they're going to get rolled by a more rested team. 

Others on the consideration list, with reasons I'm considering them and reasons I haven't played them yet. I'll reevaluate things in the morning. Thoughts, as always, appreciated. 

*Buffalo. Buffalo is way better. But I'd kinda like to see them do it on the road before I back them on the road. 

*UAB. Because FIU is awful. Way awfuler than UAB. But we saw last week that blindly fading awful teams is not always a great idea. 

*Wyoming. Because their offense should destroy the UNM defense. But they have been vulnerable in the run defense, and UNM has a run offense. 

*UNLV. Because they're quite a bit better than Hawai'i. But. . . actually I'm not sure why I haven't played this already. Nerves about betting on bad teams I guess. 

*Utah. A rough spot for Stanford after Washington, looking ahead to UCLA, and playing at elevation. On the other hand, they are a much better team. 

*OSU/WSU over. Because Oregon State's defense is made for overs. That said, they still may be more competent than any of the folks WSU has scored on this year. 

*Navy/Duke over. Same with Navy's and Duke's. But a team with a bye to prepare for the option always makes me nervous. 

*Oklahoma. Because Texas brings out the best in Oklahoma. That said, Oklahoma has not shown much good against anyone this year. 
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I hate having an underdog (or an under, but in this case an underdog) in overtime. Hate it. 

Anyways, I decided to lay off Sparty and Ball State but add Northwestern. Final card:

Nevada +6 (loss)
MTSU +7.5
FAU +4
Rice +3
UNT -3
Cincy -12
UNC +7
Northwestern +7
Illinois/Nebraska over 60.5
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Yeah, I had you pegged for MTSU as well. I'm definitely on Nevada with you, and probably UNC and Sparty as well. 

I hope you're right on Tennessee. There's no football reason that game should be close, but the emotional angle does strongly favor the Vols. I hope that's what wins out, because, as I said, there's no football reason this game should be close. 
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5-4 last week, 24-22 overall. Just barely staying in the black. I was right about Florida being free money last week, and I resent my lack of confidence in my own picks keeping it at one unit. Oh well, onwards and upwards. What's on the docket for this week. 

Nevada +6 is locked in. Why? Because San Diego State isn't very good, not good enough to lay almost a touchdown here. They've performed relatively well the last couple weeks, but Oregon State often lays eggs in non-con and NMSU isn't very good. So going Wolf Pack. 

Here's the consideration list for Saturday

*Michigan State +1. Because I think they're the better team. 

*Cincy -12. They're making you pay to fade USF, but I'll pay to fade USF. 

*MTSU +7.5. ECU played the game of their lives against the only opponent they really care about last week. I'll pay to see them come out strong a week later. 

*UNC +7. UNC isn't very good this year, but VT can't score, so I don't trust their ability to cover big numbers. Last week provides some line value. 

*North Texas -3. Better team, by a fair margin. 

*Rice +3. I think they're a better team. Tulsa isn't good. 

*FAU +5. Again, I think they're a better team, although their mindset concerns me a bit. 

*Ball State +5. Again, I think they're the better team. 

*Illinois/Nebraska over 60. both of these teams know about offense. Neither of them know about defense. 
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Well, now I'm in the red, with a shitty start to the week. I'm losing confidence in my plays with three weeks of 2-6, 5-4, 3-6, then the 0-2 start next week. It's not a good time to be tailing. But anyways, got these for this week: 

*Wyoming -12.5
*Florida -11.5
*Miami -16.5
*Kent -1.5
*BGSU -16
*WKU/Navy over 60
*CU/OSU over 58.5

I really do think the books are giving away money on the Florida/Kentucky game. If I were not in such a rut, I'd highly consider putting two units on it. 

Decided to go with the over in Corvallis instead of the side. I think CU keeps it close, but if so, it'll be with a lot of scoring. With the over, I leave myself a little wiggle room in case they don't keep it close, since there's a good chance a blowout could also have lots of scoring. 
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An abysmal 3-6 last week dropped me to slightly above the coin at 19-18. -105 style lines from 5dimes keeps me from being in the red, but I ain't exactly in the black after a great first week and then three weeks of giving it back. 

Don't love the lines this week, but I'm still here trying to get what I can. 

*MTSU +24. This play makes me a little nervous because Mendenhall's BYU teams have been excellent at obliterating lesser teams. But MTSU is a feisty underdog, and I don't love the spot for BYU on a short week coming off a rivalry game. 

*San Jose State +10. Sandwich game on a short week for Utah State, with travel on top of it. No doubt the Spartans are the inferior team, but they'll keep it close tonight and may even have a shot to win. 

Those are both locked in. The consideration list for tomorrow: 

*Wyoming. The only thing scaring me about this is that every time I think I have a read on Wyoming, they do something bizarre and inexplicable like lose by double digits to a team coached by Mike Locksley. 

*Florida. Every year there's a new reason to be wary of the Gators going into Kentucky. Letdown, injuries, inefficient offense, whatever. It never matters. This will definitely be a play. 

*Navy/WKU over 58. Not impressed with either defense, and both offenses are looking strong. WKU does have turnover issues, but turnover issues can contribute to high scores as often as not. 

*Miami. Because USF is abysmally awful. 

*Kent State. I honestly think they're the better team, because WMU is just that bad. 

*Bowling Green. Akron is improved, but can they play the feisty underdog three weeks running? 

*Colorado +11. Oregon State hasn't been too good as a favorite this year, because their defense keeps people in games. I guess we'll see how much better Colorado has gotten. 
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Would you mind expounding a bit on Texas State/Wyoming? I can see the general reasoning (paying a premium for Wyoming), but there's always the question of whether it's a premium relative to their actual quality or whether it's a premium relative to our incorrect preseason assessment. And Wyoming's offense looks to me like genuine quality relative to their level of competition.  View
GL, Sizzle.  View
You've got me seriously considering SJSU and contemplating rescinding my Wyoming lean (which I was already thinking about actually. I don't think I've ever won a bet on or against Wyoming).  View
Final card for the week

KU/LT under 50.5
Nevada -7
Cincy -23
ULL -6
UNC +6.5
KSU +6.5
Michigan St +5
UT/UF under 45.5
Wake/Army over 47.5

Scares me to death putting money on offenses as bad as Wake and Army, but I'm confident in the putridity of their defenses. 
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