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replied to
At some point in this Super Bowl the team that is leading by double digits fade them live
in NFL Betting In his career, Purdy has 2 wins after being down 10+ pts. He also has 2 losses after being ahead by 10+.
I dont have career stats for Mahomes, but I saw this factoid at CBS sports ”…..Mahomes is 4-2 in his playoff career when trailing by at least 10 points, while the rest of the NFL in 8-55 (.127 win percentage) since 2018…..” |
buffer | 27 |
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OK I’ll add one thing I watched the 1989 SB in a sports bar in Kentucky not far from Cincinnati. I remember the Niners came on to the field and were very cool and business-like in their attitude. The Bengals came out of the tunnel juiced, like they were shot out of a cannon. Clearly they seemed to have the edge in energy + enthusiasm. Game was tied 3-3 at HT. Bengals took the lead in the 3rd quarter, but at the end of the game Joe Montana led the Niners down the field for the game winning TD. Bottom line the better QB beat the team that seemed to have the better energy, at least in the beginning of the game. BOL |
Indydog | 19 |
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Whenever I get buyers remorse I try to focus on the positives, the reasons I picked whatever team In this case, besides the things you mentioned, I think the Chiefs have the better OLine + DLine. Not based on just my observations, but I also looked up stats from their last 5 games sacked opposing QB SF 7 KC 15 sacks allowed SF 11 KC 5
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Indydog | 19 |
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@NONEED4LUCK
Quote Originally Posted by NONEED4LUCK:
A Chiefs fan buried a Chiefs flag under Allegiant during construction. It is known here in KC as Arrowhead West due to when the Chiefs play their, it is mostly red and more of a home game for them.
That’s good stuff. It makes me wonder if a similar thing happened in Chicago? About 20 years ago Soldier field was fully renovated, maybe a packers backer was able to bury a flag under their turf then. It seems like Packers always beat the Bears, at home + away |
Biscuit | 7 |
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Action_Junkee D-Town drunkbettor
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Biscuit | 7 |
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Chiefs -1 Over 36’ Parlay +150
Chiefs TT Over 26’ +154
Reid vs Shanahan in 3 games Reid has won by DD each time, Chiefs offense scoring 38 31 + 44 points
Chiefs have been lucky at Allegiant stadium, 4-0 record, scoring minimum 31 points in each game (vs Raiders)
Niners D hasn’t been the same since losing S Hufanga to injury on November 19. With him they were allowing just over 15 pts/game, since he’s been on IR they’ve allowed just over 22 pts/game
GLTA |
Biscuit | 7 |
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Chiefs D is playing better recently Last 5 games SFO 7 sacks, allowed 23+ points/game KC 15 sacks, allowed 14 points/game |
Griswold1 | 12 |
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He runs too much IMO Running QBs like LJ and Josh Allen tend to not win SBs. Lamar had 50+ yds/game rushing this season I looked this up a while ago, IIRC the SB winning QB with most rush yds was Russell Wilson with avg 33/game, and that was when Seahawks had a historically dominant defense so he also had that going for him. Other SB winning QBs are usually under 30 rush yds/game
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ActionMagnet | 25 |
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Yeah what Digitalkarma said I read that easily the most futures were on SFO so books are happy to get Chiefs/Cheifs money which makes me wonder, does it make sense that the line was set to attract KC money to mitigate exposure?
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phillies73 | 39 |
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Possible but not likely
49ers are not a good come from behind team. They usually get a lead then boat race for easy win. only twice have they overcome a 7 point deficit, @ rams + vs cards never won a game after being down DD this season |
DavidGurney | 4 |
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FTR
Chiefs have kicked two games when they’ve had 7+ leads, vs Lions + vs Eagles Chiefs actually led 17-7 @ HT, but Eagles came back to win 21-17 |
CFLChef | 8 |
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I like that 2 team ML parlay, might do the same thing for myself. I’m liking Ravens to beat Chiefs who will probably be without G Thuney Thuney's pass block win rate (99.1 percent) led all players this season. and I like SFO but don’t trust myself to have objective analysis because I’m somewhat biased against Goff. ML parlay +100 is about the only play in my comfort zone, at the moment.
BOL Europa |
Europa | 39 |
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OK Europa I will check out your thread thanks for the write up LAGame, I agree with most of what you said BOL |
LAGameofInches | 24 |
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Hi Europa the only play I have so far is Pacheco Over 72’ rushing yards +135 he has easily surpassed that number in his last 3 games, and I figure that Reid will put more emphasis on ball control vs Ravens. KC had the ball for only 24 minutes vs Bills, but they can’t get away with that ToP deficit vs Ravens I’m still considering it, but the more I think about it, the more I like the ravens. Since 2018 the Chiefs have played essentially an extra season, 16 playoff games. Ravens may be in a good position to exploit the high mileage Chiefs on Sunday. Not sure about the other game yet. Who do you like? |
LAGameofInches | 24 |
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“…..Moreover, the Ravens gave up the third LEAST rushing yards to RB's and the way Pacheco runs won't trouble the Ravens D as much as most b/c they are very good tacklers (except on that punt return last week lol……..”
Not sure where you’re getting that info? Ravens allowed 109.4 rush yds/game, ranked #14 |
LAGameofInches | 24 |
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I agree
BOL |
dayknight | 6 |
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LippyLeans Fuse
I mostly looked into the ages of players to get a better feel of which teams are older and might be more vulnerable in b2b games or 3 games in 4 nights etc. The championship angle was a secondary motivation.
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Biscuit | 6 |
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Chiefs + Lions QBs are more experienced, the only ones who have won conference championship games before
GL |
GeoDawg | 14 |
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Using the same system, here’s a look at the last 6 champs
22-23 DEN 125
21-22 GSW 131
20-21 MIL 142
19-20 LAL 143
18-19 TOR 138
17-18 GSW 136
Mostly these teams are in the middle range, with some experience but not too old
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Biscuit | 6 |
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This is a snapshot view of teams’ ages, compiled at the end of December 2023.
I took the ages of the top 5 scorers on each team and added them together.
It’s not a perfect system, but good enough to give an idea of teams’ relative ages compared to each other.
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MIL 157
LAC 155
PHX 155
LAL 146
GSW 146
BOS 142
MIN 141
DAL 140
CHI 140
DEN 140
PHI 136
NOP 135
MIA 134
NYK 133
SAC 132
UTA 131
ATL 131
BKN 131
CHA 130
POR 129
TOR 128
CLE 128
IND 127
WAS 126
MEM 124
HOU 122
DET 121
OKC 113
ORL 113
SAS 113
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Biscuit | 6 |
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