How'd they catch you? How'd they notify you? Thoughts, stories???
If you'd feel more comfortable, you can PM me here
.... DP
Im not a steam bettor. The only steam I recognize is on my stove.
But if you are a true steam bettor, you are in theory betting a stale line. So in my examples, betting a soft line can also be combined with betting a soft line because of steam.
Steam will move a line at the shops that it is being bet at. Lets walk that through: The only shops that take serious money (like pinnacle etc) get hammered with 50K chunks, and the line moves - but at the bodogs and betXX's of the world - they are minutes late in moving the line. So "steam" bettors are the guys betting 1k at those shops on lines that are 5 minutes old and a half point off.
Those guys get limited because all they are looking to do is take advantage of a line that has been steamed elsewhere - and now is stale at a square shop. Boom - your limits are a buck faster than you can blink.
Books love a guy who bets the steam after the steam has cooled. By definition, it is only steam when it is hot. If I bet steam 24 hours after it is steam, the books are getting me at the worst possible line, and they are happy.
This is for all of the square "recreational" books - I would say that accounts for 90% of the books out there. There is only way to get limited at the other 10%. And its not what you would think - most would say winning is the way to get limited - but its not.
The books that welcome all action profile their players by assigning a value to each player with respect to how often they get the best line, and to what degree. They dont care about wins and losses because they know longterm the guy that beats them is the one that consistently beats the line.
So the two groups of books have different mindsets. Pinnacle doesnt mind paying out 100K to a guy who goes on a lucky streak, while sportsinteraction or bodog will collar that guy in an instant. Pinnacle is more worried about a 1 year losing gambler that consistently beats the line than a 1 year winning gambler on a hot streak.
Im not a steam bettor. The only steam I recognize is on my stove.
But if you are a true steam bettor, you are in theory betting a stale line. So in my examples, betting a soft line can also be combined with betting a soft line because of steam.
Steam will move a line at the shops that it is being bet at. Lets walk that through: The only shops that take serious money (like pinnacle etc) get hammered with 50K chunks, and the line moves - but at the bodogs and betXX's of the world - they are minutes late in moving the line. So "steam" bettors are the guys betting 1k at those shops on lines that are 5 minutes old and a half point off.
Those guys get limited because all they are looking to do is take advantage of a line that has been steamed elsewhere - and now is stale at a square shop. Boom - your limits are a buck faster than you can blink.
Books love a guy who bets the steam after the steam has cooled. By definition, it is only steam when it is hot. If I bet steam 24 hours after it is steam, the books are getting me at the worst possible line, and they are happy.
This is for all of the square "recreational" books - I would say that accounts for 90% of the books out there. There is only way to get limited at the other 10%. And its not what you would think - most would say winning is the way to get limited - but its not.
The books that welcome all action profile their players by assigning a value to each player with respect to how often they get the best line, and to what degree. They dont care about wins and losses because they know longterm the guy that beats them is the one that consistently beats the line.
So the two groups of books have different mindsets. Pinnacle doesnt mind paying out 100K to a guy who goes on a lucky streak, while sportsinteraction or bodog will collar that guy in an instant. Pinnacle is more worried about a 1 year losing gambler that consistently beats the line than a 1 year winning gambler on a hot streak.
Not saying they arent good people. Im sure they are. Not making a judgement, just stating the facts as I see them.
Usually not an email. Its usually when you log on, try to place a bet, and you are informed electronically that you are attempting to place a wager above the limit. They never give you a reason, and they never send an email. I doubt some of these places even know what an email is.
Not saying they arent good people. Im sure they are. Not making a judgement, just stating the facts as I see them.
Usually not an email. Its usually when you log on, try to place a bet, and you are informed electronically that you are attempting to place a wager above the limit. They never give you a reason, and they never send an email. I doubt some of these places even know what an email is.
Yeah, but if we are talking honestly here....
What is betphoenix going to offer for a limit to "all players, even if they are good"?
Does a "good" player want to bet in to a -110 line with a limit of 1k? Or 500 bucks?
I dont know much about betphoenix. They might have great intentions, and they might be a big sponsor at covers. But lets be real for a second. Will they let me bet 20K on an NCAAF side? I doubt it. Do they want someone betting that much? I doubt it.
Betphoenix comes to covers and is a sponsor of covers because covers is square central. Look at the top 10 list of books, or all of the sponsor books here. Its no secret. Betphoenix wants to grow and be a "bigger player in the future" in the recreational gambler space. You have to talk in terms that I laid out above - the part about the 90% of books vs the 10% of books. They want to be a player in the 90% category.
Nothing wrong with that, but they are not the type of book that somebody that moves lines, or somebody that does this seriously would consider at this point. Its a very safe statement for the CEO of BP to make the statement that they take all players - even good - because he has to know that "good" players are not interested in what BP has to offer. Thats not a slam, every book has their market - but lets be real here.....
Yeah, but if we are talking honestly here....
What is betphoenix going to offer for a limit to "all players, even if they are good"?
Does a "good" player want to bet in to a -110 line with a limit of 1k? Or 500 bucks?
I dont know much about betphoenix. They might have great intentions, and they might be a big sponsor at covers. But lets be real for a second. Will they let me bet 20K on an NCAAF side? I doubt it. Do they want someone betting that much? I doubt it.
Betphoenix comes to covers and is a sponsor of covers because covers is square central. Look at the top 10 list of books, or all of the sponsor books here. Its no secret. Betphoenix wants to grow and be a "bigger player in the future" in the recreational gambler space. You have to talk in terms that I laid out above - the part about the 90% of books vs the 10% of books. They want to be a player in the 90% category.
Nothing wrong with that, but they are not the type of book that somebody that moves lines, or somebody that does this seriously would consider at this point. Its a very safe statement for the CEO of BP to make the statement that they take all players - even good - because he has to know that "good" players are not interested in what BP has to offer. Thats not a slam, every book has their market - but lets be real here.....
Love the reverse psycholoy
Good stuff Vanzack
Love the reverse psycholoy
Good stuff Vanzack
I have heard similar experiences with BP. Sounds like they are doing well to establish a good reputation.
My point in this thread, is that there are clearly 2 different categories of books. The first category (90% of books) are looking for a recreational clientel, have lower limits, copy lines, and will ban you for being anything close to "sharp". The second category (10% of books), takes on all comers, makes lines and moves lines on their own, have higher limits, and are much less likely to collar or ban players.
BP is part of the first group and my point above is that these books dont make lines, or move lines on their own. Does anyone really think the guys at pinnacle look at the odds screen and say "betphoenix just went to -7 on the patriots game, we better follow"???
The 10% moves and sets lines from action or anticipated action. The 90% moves lines when the 10% moves the line first, and adjusts it to mirror their clientel.
That is why I posted above that an oddsmaker at a 90% shop's primary objective is to shape the clientel to a homogiznized state - a predictable crowd - so they can adjust the line accordingly. Ever wonder how bodog can always have the favorite a half point higher than everyone else? Because they collar or ban dog bettors. Oddsmakers at the 90% shops dont really make any odds. Its a misnomer.
Notice how in the ask the oddsmaker thread at covers the oddsmaker has NEVER answered a single question about this subject - although asked repeatedly? He chooses to answer "what impact will brett favre have on the vikings" type of questions, not "what does an oddsmaker do at XXXXX90%"???
I have heard similar experiences with BP. Sounds like they are doing well to establish a good reputation.
My point in this thread, is that there are clearly 2 different categories of books. The first category (90% of books) are looking for a recreational clientel, have lower limits, copy lines, and will ban you for being anything close to "sharp". The second category (10% of books), takes on all comers, makes lines and moves lines on their own, have higher limits, and are much less likely to collar or ban players.
BP is part of the first group and my point above is that these books dont make lines, or move lines on their own. Does anyone really think the guys at pinnacle look at the odds screen and say "betphoenix just went to -7 on the patriots game, we better follow"???
The 10% moves and sets lines from action or anticipated action. The 90% moves lines when the 10% moves the line first, and adjusts it to mirror their clientel.
That is why I posted above that an oddsmaker at a 90% shop's primary objective is to shape the clientel to a homogiznized state - a predictable crowd - so they can adjust the line accordingly. Ever wonder how bodog can always have the favorite a half point higher than everyone else? Because they collar or ban dog bettors. Oddsmakers at the 90% shops dont really make any odds. Its a misnomer.
Notice how in the ask the oddsmaker thread at covers the oddsmaker has NEVER answered a single question about this subject - although asked repeatedly? He chooses to answer "what impact will brett favre have on the vikings" type of questions, not "what does an oddsmaker do at XXXXX90%"???
I have heard similar experiences with BP. Sounds like they are doing well to establish a good reputation.
My point in this thread, is that there are clearly 2 different categories of books. The first category (90% of books) are looking for a recreational clientel, have lower limits, copy lines, and will ban you for being anything close to "sharp". The second category (10% of books), takes on all comers, makes lines and moves lines on their own, have higher limits, and are much less likely to collar or ban players.
BP is part of the first group and my point above is that these books dont make lines, or move lines on their own. Does anyone really think the guys at pinnacle look at the odds screen and say "betphoenix just went to -7 on the patriots game, we better follow"???
The 10% moves and sets lines from action or anticipated action. The 90% moves lines when the 10% moves the line first, and adjusts it to mirror their clientel.
That is why I posted above that an oddsmaker at a 90% shop's primary objective is to shape the clientel to a homogiznized state - a predictable crowd - so they can adjust the line accordingly. Ever wonder how bodog can always have the favorite a half point higher than everyone else? Because they collar or ban dog bettors. Oddsmakers at the 90% shops dont really make any odds. Its a misnomer.
Notice how in the ask the oddsmaker thread at covers the oddsmaker has NEVER answered a single question about this subject - although asked repeatedly? He chooses to answer "what impact will brett favre have on the vikings" type of questions, not "what does an oddsmaker do at XXXXX90%"???
I'm glad you described the distinction between the two types of sportsbooks because I'm not sure many understand it. My question to you is why are there two types of books? From a business model standpoint, why would one book decide to take serious action from serious gamblers, while another book caters only to the $20 recreational gambler? It seems like there are tradeoffs for both models, but I'm not sure I'm able to weigh those tradeoffs correctly as far as the bottom line is concerned.
I have heard similar experiences with BP. Sounds like they are doing well to establish a good reputation.
My point in this thread, is that there are clearly 2 different categories of books. The first category (90% of books) are looking for a recreational clientel, have lower limits, copy lines, and will ban you for being anything close to "sharp". The second category (10% of books), takes on all comers, makes lines and moves lines on their own, have higher limits, and are much less likely to collar or ban players.
BP is part of the first group and my point above is that these books dont make lines, or move lines on their own. Does anyone really think the guys at pinnacle look at the odds screen and say "betphoenix just went to -7 on the patriots game, we better follow"???
The 10% moves and sets lines from action or anticipated action. The 90% moves lines when the 10% moves the line first, and adjusts it to mirror their clientel.
That is why I posted above that an oddsmaker at a 90% shop's primary objective is to shape the clientel to a homogiznized state - a predictable crowd - so they can adjust the line accordingly. Ever wonder how bodog can always have the favorite a half point higher than everyone else? Because they collar or ban dog bettors. Oddsmakers at the 90% shops dont really make any odds. Its a misnomer.
Notice how in the ask the oddsmaker thread at covers the oddsmaker has NEVER answered a single question about this subject - although asked repeatedly? He chooses to answer "what impact will brett favre have on the vikings" type of questions, not "what does an oddsmaker do at XXXXX90%"???
I'm glad you described the distinction between the two types of sportsbooks because I'm not sure many understand it. My question to you is why are there two types of books? From a business model standpoint, why would one book decide to take serious action from serious gamblers, while another book caters only to the $20 recreational gambler? It seems like there are tradeoffs for both models, but I'm not sure I'm able to weigh those tradeoffs correctly as far as the bottom line is concerned.
I'm glad you described the distinction between the two types of sportsbooks because I'm not sure many understand it. My question to you is why are there two types of books? From a business model standpoint, why would one book decide to take serious action from serious gamblers, while another book caters only to the $20 recreational gambler? It seems like there are tradeoffs for both models, but I'm not sure I'm able to weigh those tradeoffs correctly as far as the bottom line is concerned.
I'm not as well versed as vanzack and others on this, but the obvious answer to me about the books that cater to the $20 recreational gamblers is that there are probably millions of more customers on that end.
As for your other question, my guess is that the high limit books figure that for all the serious gamblers there are out there who will throw 20k on a game, there would be a similar amount who have the money that just want big action and aren't as "sharp".
I'm glad you described the distinction between the two types of sportsbooks because I'm not sure many understand it. My question to you is why are there two types of books? From a business model standpoint, why would one book decide to take serious action from serious gamblers, while another book caters only to the $20 recreational gambler? It seems like there are tradeoffs for both models, but I'm not sure I'm able to weigh those tradeoffs correctly as far as the bottom line is concerned.
I'm not as well versed as vanzack and others on this, but the obvious answer to me about the books that cater to the $20 recreational gamblers is that there are probably millions of more customers on that end.
As for your other question, my guess is that the high limit books figure that for all the serious gamblers there are out there who will throw 20k on a game, there would be a similar amount who have the money that just want big action and aren't as "sharp".
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