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Author: [Gaming Industry - US] Topic: Is it possable to handicapp better than 53%
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#1
Posted: 3/20/2009 11:29:28 AM
I mean does everything we do all the studying really make a diffrence?
 
Or is it still a 50-50 propostion?
It seems so hard to handicapp and win
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#2
Posted: 3/20/2009 5:58:32 PM
Yes it is but you need to be very very disciplined and basically play 1-3 games a day and even skip days
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#3
Posted: 3/20/2009 8:44:13 PM
A big part of the problem is that we don't have all the information that the linesmakers have access to.  Hence, we are always handicapping from a position of weakness.
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#4
Posted: 3/21/2009 10:10:03 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyeball:

I mean does everything we do all the studying really make a diffrence?
 
Or is it still a 50-50 propostion?
It seems so hard to handicapp and win

Err I posted this question the other day you mention 1-3 plays a day. So do you feel the more games you play the worse chance you have?

Some sites  have said pull the trigger  when your expectation is 55% or better and playing 8 picks a day is fine

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#5
Posted: 3/21/2009 10:44:56 AM
Professional handicappers that I know who are successful all make their own line for every game.  Most make use of complex algorithms.  They feel they can make a more accurate line than the oddsmakers can - primarily because the oddsmaker is trying to even the betting and their lines may not accurately reflect the true difference between teams.   Assuming that they can and do make a more accurate line than the oddsmakers, these professional gamblers that I know will typically bet on every game where there is a significant difference between their line and the oddsmakers line - betting more, the bigger the line differential.  If you bet 7 games a week for $1K a pop and win 5, you would win $2800.   That's over 70% winners.  On the other hand, if you bet 80 games a week and win 50, that's "only" about 62% winners but you would profit $25K.
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#6
Posted: 3/21/2009 11:01:09 AM
I'm @ 54% on CBB without a lot of study. NBA, however, 44%.
Last year was the exact opposite. I think the key is to limit plays, which is the hardest thing for a gambler to do becuase he's always trying to hedge against bad beats. Typically the hedge bet (or the bet made simply to taste action) is the one that kills.
Discipline aint fun.
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#7
Posted: 3/21/2009 11:05:57 AM
I agree the other day I lost 25% of my bankroll just being stupid because "I wanted some action"
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY NO MATTER WHAT SYSTEM YOU USE. But its tough...
We all like the action
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#8
Posted: 3/21/2009 11:18:13 AM
I think it's possibly but maybe not against the actual consensus closing line.  You need to be getting numbers better than the closing line.  Closing line is too sharp to beat much more than 53%, if at all.  In other words, line closes -3, you want to be sitting with -2 or +4.  Say +3 is the better side, that might be a 52% play, but +4 could be a 55% play.  All the difference in the world.
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#9
Posted: 3/21/2009 12:28:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by depeche2:

I think it's possibly but maybe not against the actual consensus closing line.  You need to be getting numbers better than the closing line.  Closing line is too sharp to beat much more than 53%, if at all.  In other words, line closes -3, you want to be sitting with -2 or +4.  Say +3 is the better side, that might be a 52% play, but +4 could be a 55% play.  All the difference in the world.

Wow never thought of it like like that..excellent post.

In other words your number has to be early and better than the closeing line?

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#10
Posted: 3/21/2009 12:33:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eyeball:

Wow never thought of it like like that..excellent post.

In other words your number has to be early and better than the closeing line?

As D2 states - the single best determinant to longterm success is your ability to beat the line and by how much.

Not handicapping like every square in the world thinks.

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#11
Posted: 3/21/2009 2:57:54 PM
"logistical regression"
 
Never believe your eyes. Always trust the math.
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#12
Posted: 3/21/2009 6:20:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by depeche2:

I think it's possibly but maybe not against the actual consensus closing line.  You need to be getting numbers better than the closing line.  Closing line is too sharp to beat much more than 53%, if at all.  In other words, line closes -3, you want to be sitting with -2 or +4.  Say +3 is the better side, that might be a 52% play, but +4 could be a 55% play.  All the difference in the world.


To expand on this, there are a few different ways to do this.  One, you could make a good early number and anticipate moves in your favor.  Second, you could grab lines as they are moving (at the better number).  Third, you could pick off lines at various shops as they are off-market trying to attract action (early or late).  Combine this with reduce juice and some sense of a "right side" and you are on your way.  But I can guarantee you that if you don't make an extra effort to get the best number at all times, if you are just taking whatever your local deals, then you are a loser before you even start.
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#13
Posted: 3/21/2009 9:05:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by depeche2:



To expand on this, there are a few different ways to do this.  One, you could make a good early number and anticipate moves in your favor.  Second, you could grab lines as they are moving (at the better number).  Third, you could pick off lines at various shops as they are off-market trying to attract action (early or late).  Combine this with reduce juice and some sense of a "right side" and you are on your way.  But I can guarantee you that if you don't make an extra effort to get the best number at all times, if you are just taking whatever your local deals, then you are a loser before you even start.

Amen.

The truth is out there, 99.9% of gamblers refuse to take the time to understand it even though it is right in front of them.

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#14
Posted: 3/22/2009 10:20:16 PM
I may have to amend my statement.  I went 8-0 today against the closing line. 
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#15
Posted: 3/24/2009 8:21:42 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by depeche2:

I may have to amend my statement.  I went 8-0 today against the closing line. 

Love it, d2 .

Which means you bet every game. : )

Nice job. I settled for 6-2, losing on Cleveland St and Washington.


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#16
Posted: 3/24/2009 8:36:49 PM
 For me i play totals, the hell with point spreads. I play them once in great great while. Nfl i will hit well over 60%. College football is a little tougher. But i stick with about 6 or 7 teams and i just know what they are going to do week to week, heck ou was flying over every week, iride good teams and they will bear fruit. College hoops i am 2 games over 500. But i made a mistake Sunday i bet on that toliet dayton flyers, i broke my own rules, lost and deserve to. Now last saturday i played nc and lsu over well lsu tanked that game. That is the one thing no one can cap the fixation.Nba has been red hot i do not bet a ton of games but take a look at the suns, ther like a atm machine. I got lucky last night i got 133 and pushed.
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#17
Posted: 3/24/2009 11:18:38 PM
I personally believe that you either have a brain for it or you don't. I would consider myself a feel bettor. I don't use fancy formulas and I doubt they exist. I just try and picture the final score and go against what would really surprise me. You have to decide what the source of your plays will be and only use that. You can't ask friends advice, and please don't waste your time with a tout service. I think if you can't do it yourself, then don't bother.
 
If you've watched enough sports you get a feel on what is "supposed' to happen. Of course we're betting on humans so anything can happen. Also pick a unit size based on your bankroll. There are no games of the year, week, month, or whatever. I bet more on the SuperBowl than I do in a week. And of course I lost and been chasing ever since.
 
With all that said; I'm picking right around 53%-54% since 7/31/08. The units are based on if I was betting $100/game which of course I haven't been.
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#18
Posted: 3/24/2009 11:33:25 PM
 
Sport Win-Loss-Push Percentage Units
NFL 78-69-2 53.06% +240.00
NCAAF 73-61-1 54.48% +615.00
NBA 182-154-7 54.17% +1,145.00
NCAAB 77-60-2 56.20% +1,100.00
MLB 132-115-9 53.44% +122.00
NHL 33-31-0 51.56% -230.00
MMA 5-1-0 83.33% +340.00
TOTAL 580-491-21 54.15% +3,332.00
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#19
Posted: 3/24/2009 11:51:13 PM
Period Win-Loss-Push Percentage Units
Yesterday 0-0-0 0.00% +0.00
Past 7 Days 14-12-0 53.85% +90.00
Past 30 Days 57-49-3 53.77% +290.00
Past 90 Days 185-153-4 54.73% +1,630.00
Past Year 580-491-21 54.15% +3,332.00
Record Since Start 580-491-21 54.15% +3,332.00
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#20
Posted: 3/25/2009 11:33:42 PM
 Perfect example mickey fingers posted his record. The man had over 1000 wagers and made 3000. This by the way is no refection on mickey. There is to much risk and not near enough return.He his playing 3 or so games per day give or take a few.Heck i may bet 3 a week.I played 2 games this week and that was last night the spurs over 208-. won that, and pushed on the suns monday night.This is the only way i can beat the man on a regular basis. My last 2 losing weeks i had were 60dollars and 33dollars.I p[lay between 300 and 500 per game. By the way i do parlay sometimes and it kills my man when i hit.Keep your losses low and take your  and profit when you win Stick to that formula and you will do alright. By the way you still have to pick winners.
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#21
Posted: 3/25/2009 11:39:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by depeche2:

I think it's possibly but maybe not against the actual consensus closing line.  You need to be getting numbers better than the closing line.  Closing line is too sharp to beat much more than 53%, if at all.  In other words, line closes -3, you want to be sitting with -2 or +4.  Say +3 is the better side, that might be a 52% play, but +4 could be a 55% play.  All the difference in the world.

Just buy 2 points on every play

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#22
Posted: 3/26/2009 12:02:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pjrez:

Just buy 2 points on every play



Sure but then when you git 55% you will lose.
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#23
Posted: 3/26/2009 11:18:25 AM
Great info D.     The formula i use for NBA is based on the "best line".    Its hit at 57%-62% for four seasons now.   I'm at 61% on this season.     If i use the exact same formula and base it on this seasons closing lines, i would be hitting at 48%.    Quite a bit of difference.   
 
Before i joined this site, me and my brother were just hanging around and reading the posts, soaking up info.  I saw a post Van made, quite a few years ago now. He was stating the value of getting to the lines early.   It turned out to be the post that changed my gambling forever.  If i dont get the "best line"  its a no play.   I went from a reckless, bet the big game gambler, to somebody who makes a damn nice profit.
 
 
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#24
Posted: 3/26/2009 11:24:31 AM
I meant to add that that these numbers are for the regular season only.    The system hits 50% at best in the playoffs.    I truly believe it goes back to the "best line" principal.   Once the playoffs start the lines become sharper,  eliminating the advantage of a line being off a point or two in the regular season.
 
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#25
Posted: 3/26/2009 2:38:19 PM
I'm hitting at about 49% but I've been lucky enough to win on my bigger unit wagers... I'm only down about 5 units
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