Raiders - I am a non-partisan independent to the core. I view all politicians based on their views and beliefs and am blind to their party affiliation. There may not be many of us out there but I am one for sure.
Ok so I can not believe we are discussing the Cavs anlogy. It was called sarcasm. A strategy that is often used to prove a point in this type of discussion. Of course the Cavs have zero chance of going 0-82 but the point is theta trump also has zero chance of getting the nomination.
Understand now???
There is zero chance of Cavs bet. But not Zero on Trump. I don't think he wins. But no way a front runner---apparently considered a serious contender by many---has zero chance. That is not sarcasm. That is being argumentative because you don't think he will win or don't want him to win is all. That is cool as well. But he has A CHANCE according to all the experts---all give him A CHANCE. In other words, if he has NO CHANCE--- give me 12000:1 odds right now. That would be better odds for a NO CHANCE. I will take those right now. Solid sarcasm for the NO CHANCE.
Raiders - I am a non-partisan independent to the core. I view all politicians based on their views and beliefs and am blind to their party affiliation. There may not be many of us out there but I am one for sure.
Ok so I can not believe we are discussing the Cavs anlogy. It was called sarcasm. A strategy that is often used to prove a point in this type of discussion. Of course the Cavs have zero chance of going 0-82 but the point is theta trump also has zero chance of getting the nomination.
Understand now???
There is zero chance of Cavs bet. But not Zero on Trump. I don't think he wins. But no way a front runner---apparently considered a serious contender by many---has zero chance. That is not sarcasm. That is being argumentative because you don't think he will win or don't want him to win is all. That is cool as well. But he has A CHANCE according to all the experts---all give him A CHANCE. In other words, if he has NO CHANCE--- give me 12000:1 odds right now. That would be better odds for a NO CHANCE. I will take those right now. Solid sarcasm for the NO CHANCE.
Raiders - You're confusing them with logic and the point of the thread.
Trump will never be on the national debate team after that performance but we're looking for someone to fix things and get us out of the massive whole the country and dug over the last 20+ years.
I believe 5 candidates are qualified and can whip the old corrupt hags a$$ - you know the one that just donated $15M to charity - HER OWN.
Really? If he continues to lead far and away---how do you keep him off the debate?
He will only get better at debates. He will get advice and practice and has to get better.
I didn't see debate or highlights. But it is not universal that his performance was as bad as people say NOR has it swayed that many away that weren't already turned off by him.
While we are doing weird analogies.
I compare it to those folks that think a MMA would beat a pro boxer. They are right and wrong. Sure MMA would win. But only in a one-time match. In a series the boxer will win nearly every time. My reasoning is that a boxer is elite at what he does and how the fight starts---standup boxing. Most MMA guys are weak or failed boxers at best. They are elite or better at all else. A pro boxer that is athletic will only get better and better and better at everything else besides boxing over a long period of time. He will start winning and then dominate. Because he will learn the other skills.
The same with Trump. He is not and expert debater. And apparently that showed. These other pro politicians are professional type debaters with advisers. They can't get much better. Trump will get advice and practice and will do much better over time. Unless his ego keeps him from listening to help. But from what I can tell he didn't look lost up there as much as not having prepped answers that were generic.
At any rate. No way they keep him out if he leads polls.
Raiders - You're confusing them with logic and the point of the thread.
Trump will never be on the national debate team after that performance but we're looking for someone to fix things and get us out of the massive whole the country and dug over the last 20+ years.
I believe 5 candidates are qualified and can whip the old corrupt hags a$$ - you know the one that just donated $15M to charity - HER OWN.
Really? If he continues to lead far and away---how do you keep him off the debate?
He will only get better at debates. He will get advice and practice and has to get better.
I didn't see debate or highlights. But it is not universal that his performance was as bad as people say NOR has it swayed that many away that weren't already turned off by him.
While we are doing weird analogies.
I compare it to those folks that think a MMA would beat a pro boxer. They are right and wrong. Sure MMA would win. But only in a one-time match. In a series the boxer will win nearly every time. My reasoning is that a boxer is elite at what he does and how the fight starts---standup boxing. Most MMA guys are weak or failed boxers at best. They are elite or better at all else. A pro boxer that is athletic will only get better and better and better at everything else besides boxing over a long period of time. He will start winning and then dominate. Because he will learn the other skills.
The same with Trump. He is not and expert debater. And apparently that showed. These other pro politicians are professional type debaters with advisers. They can't get much better. Trump will get advice and practice and will do much better over time. Unless his ego keeps him from listening to help. But from what I can tell he didn't look lost up there as much as not having prepped answers that were generic.
At any rate. No way they keep him out if he leads polls.
[Quote: Originally Posted bysmartapple123]by no stretch am i calling him a lock..i have believed and stated from the start that his odds should be significantly lower than what they were.About 2 months ago trump was 100/1 to be president, and i exposed those odds as absurd then.Now i am not calling him a lock..i fully understand that if he keeps attacking people, most will see him as non-presidential and he will lose a lot of his supportIm just stating the value in betting him as i believe the probability of him winning the nomination are higher than what the odds presentThat is all im saying, and i have said that when his odds were 100/1[/Quote]
apple, value is not just based on odds. It is a mix of odds and chance of winning.
To me trump has no chance of winning therefore there is not value regardless of odds.
Trump is simply a candidate with no chance fooling a desperate base with no hope and exploiting their flocking to prescribed talking points.
This is all a circus drama, not a campaign. I feel bad for the other gop candidates that are actually trying to campaign.
If you really think about it, trump increases the value of other gop candidates winning the nomination by driving up their odds.
So if we are honestly talking value betting, the value lies in the GOP candidates that actually have a chance to win the nomination because we are getting them at better odds.
So if anything we should be talking other GOP candidates in a discussion about value begging and not trump
[Quote: Originally Posted bysmartapple123]by no stretch am i calling him a lock..i have believed and stated from the start that his odds should be significantly lower than what they were.About 2 months ago trump was 100/1 to be president, and i exposed those odds as absurd then.Now i am not calling him a lock..i fully understand that if he keeps attacking people, most will see him as non-presidential and he will lose a lot of his supportIm just stating the value in betting him as i believe the probability of him winning the nomination are higher than what the odds presentThat is all im saying, and i have said that when his odds were 100/1[/Quote]
apple, value is not just based on odds. It is a mix of odds and chance of winning.
To me trump has no chance of winning therefore there is not value regardless of odds.
Trump is simply a candidate with no chance fooling a desperate base with no hope and exploiting their flocking to prescribed talking points.
This is all a circus drama, not a campaign. I feel bad for the other gop candidates that are actually trying to campaign.
If you really think about it, trump increases the value of other gop candidates winning the nomination by driving up their odds.
So if we are honestly talking value betting, the value lies in the GOP candidates that actually have a chance to win the nomination because we are getting them at better odds.
So if anything we should be talking other GOP candidates in a discussion about value begging and not trump
apple, value is not just based on odds. It is a mix of odds and chance of winning.
To me trump has no chance of winning therefore there is not value regardless of odds.
Trump is simply a candidate with no chance fooling a desperate base with no hope and exploiting their flocking to prescribed talking points.
This is all a circus drama, not a campaign. I feel bad for the other gop candidates that are actually trying to campaign.
If you really think about it, trump increases the value of other gop candidates winning the nomination by driving up their odds.
So if we are honestly talking value betting, the value lies in the GOP candidates that actually have a chance to win the nomination because we are getting them at better odds.
So if anything we should be talking other GOP candidates in a discussion about value begging and not trump
lol...i just lost a lot of respect for you dl....sorry
apple, value is not just based on odds. It is a mix of odds and chance of winning.
To me trump has no chance of winning therefore there is not value regardless of odds.
Trump is simply a candidate with no chance fooling a desperate base with no hope and exploiting their flocking to prescribed talking points.
This is all a circus drama, not a campaign. I feel bad for the other gop candidates that are actually trying to campaign.
If you really think about it, trump increases the value of other gop candidates winning the nomination by driving up their odds.
So if we are honestly talking value betting, the value lies in the GOP candidates that actually have a chance to win the nomination because we are getting them at better odds.
So if anything we should be talking other GOP candidates in a discussion about value begging and not trump
lol...i just lost a lot of respect for you dl....sorry
As I posted in the other thread, even some of the Left have to admit Trump may not fade so easily.
Maher told his guests, who included Republican strategists Mary Matalin and Steve Schmidt — neither of whom gave full-throated support to the real-estate mogul — that Trump shouldn’t be underestimated, and compared the current front-runner with Ronald Reagan circa 1968. When Reagan first floated the bubble of running, “it was a joke, like c’mon, he has a stupid television show, he’s divorced, he avoided combat, he’s got weird hair and crazy face paint. So for all those people who say Donald Trump could not go all the way, I don’t think they’re right.”
As I posted in the other thread, even some of the Left have to admit Trump may not fade so easily.
Maher told his guests, who included Republican strategists Mary Matalin and Steve Schmidt — neither of whom gave full-throated support to the real-estate mogul — that Trump shouldn’t be underestimated, and compared the current front-runner with Ronald Reagan circa 1968. When Reagan first floated the bubble of running, “it was a joke, like c’mon, he has a stupid television show, he’s divorced, he avoided combat, he’s got weird hair and crazy face paint. So for all those people who say Donald Trump could not go all the way, I don’t think they’re right.”
Except one huge difference. Reagan was positive consensus bldr. trump is immature petty. Attacks any1 he disagrees w. Recall reagans 11th amendment don't speak ill of other republicans. Trump only cares about himself and not the ultimate mission which should be defeating Clinton.
As long as we r using analogies just look at 2008. Who was leading at this point Guilliani and Thompson. Trump is popular because he has hit a vein on political correctness. But he can't build consensus and has 0 chance of winning.
Except one huge difference. Reagan was positive consensus bldr. trump is immature petty. Attacks any1 he disagrees w. Recall reagans 11th amendment don't speak ill of other republicans. Trump only cares about himself and not the ultimate mission which should be defeating Clinton.
As long as we r using analogies just look at 2008. Who was leading at this point Guilliani and Thompson. Trump is popular because he has hit a vein on political correctness. But he can't build consensus and has 0 chance of winning.
Ronald Reagans 11th amendment "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican." was made by Reagan tongue in cheek ,because at that time he was the front runner ,,,,lol
Reagan broke that amendment many times ...in fact,in the 1976 Republican primary against Gerald Ford .. He attacked him in the North Carolina Primary and beat Ford,regaining momentum and winning a majority of delegates chosen after that date.
Politics has been called a "Blood sport" for a reason..
Ronald Reagans 11th amendment "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican." was made by Reagan tongue in cheek ,because at that time he was the front runner ,,,,lol
Reagan broke that amendment many times ...in fact,in the 1976 Republican primary against Gerald Ford .. He attacked him in the North Carolina Primary and beat Ford,regaining momentum and winning a majority of delegates chosen after that date.
Politics has been called a "Blood sport" for a reason..
How many people picked Obama to be the Democrat nominee in 08 at the beginning of the campaign? I am not saying Trump will win but stranger things have happened. No one even knew who Obama was.
I still believe Bush vs. Clinton will be nominees when all is said and done. They are the ones that will have the most money. Ultimately Trumps mouth will be his downfall. He offends way to many people (including Republicans) right now to have a serious shot. If he would stick to issues and forget all the name calling he might have a shot. I think he has already blown that chance. Polls right now don't mean squat this far away from the election.
Bush is the one guy that might be able to unite the party and bring in the Latino vote as well. Republicans MUST get a good chunk of that voting block.
Clinton will be the nominee as Sanders probably doesn't have a shot. He is basically running to appease the Democrats that don't favor Clinton.
Only time will tell but that's how I see things right now.
How many people picked Obama to be the Democrat nominee in 08 at the beginning of the campaign? I am not saying Trump will win but stranger things have happened. No one even knew who Obama was.
I still believe Bush vs. Clinton will be nominees when all is said and done. They are the ones that will have the most money. Ultimately Trumps mouth will be his downfall. He offends way to many people (including Republicans) right now to have a serious shot. If he would stick to issues and forget all the name calling he might have a shot. I think he has already blown that chance. Polls right now don't mean squat this far away from the election.
Bush is the one guy that might be able to unite the party and bring in the Latino vote as well. Republicans MUST get a good chunk of that voting block.
Clinton will be the nominee as Sanders probably doesn't have a shot. He is basically running to appease the Democrats that don't favor Clinton.
Only time will tell but that's how I see things right now.
apple, value is not just based on odds. It is a mix of odds and chance of winning.To me trump has no chance of winning therefore there is not value regardless of odds. Trump is simply a candidate with no chance fooling a desperate base with no hope and exploiting their flocking to prescribed talking points.This is all a circus drama, not a campaign. I feel bad for the other gop candidates that are actually trying to campaign. If you really think about it, trump increases the value of other gop candidates winning the nomination by driving up their odds.So if we are honestly talking value betting, the value lies in the GOP candidates that actually have a chance to win the nomination because we are getting them at better odds.So if anything we should be talking other GOP candidates in a discussion about value begging and not trump
lol...i just lost a lot of respect for you dl....sorry
Because i disagree with you? Lol
I am not sure how my logic around value betting other candidates because the appearance of trump is giving u better odds is wrong.
apple, value is not just based on odds. It is a mix of odds and chance of winning.To me trump has no chance of winning therefore there is not value regardless of odds. Trump is simply a candidate with no chance fooling a desperate base with no hope and exploiting their flocking to prescribed talking points.This is all a circus drama, not a campaign. I feel bad for the other gop candidates that are actually trying to campaign. If you really think about it, trump increases the value of other gop candidates winning the nomination by driving up their odds.So if we are honestly talking value betting, the value lies in the GOP candidates that actually have a chance to win the nomination because we are getting them at better odds.So if anything we should be talking other GOP candidates in a discussion about value begging and not trump
lol...i just lost a lot of respect for you dl....sorry
Because i disagree with you? Lol
I am not sure how my logic around value betting other candidates because the appearance of trump is giving u better odds is wrong.
I will throw you a bone here and say that your prediction of trumps popular has surpassed expectations. But I still think in a betting discussion about money, trump is a poor investment.
Trumps popularity is simply a barometer of the condition of the GOP that is in complete shambles. If the GOP was not weak and ripping apart at the seems, trump would be ignored and have no effect. So if this is what you postulated in your trump betting idea I would have to give u credit
I will throw you a bone here and say that your prediction of trumps popular has surpassed expectations. But I still think in a betting discussion about money, trump is a poor investment.
Trumps popularity is simply a barometer of the condition of the GOP that is in complete shambles. If the GOP was not weak and ripping apart at the seems, trump would be ignored and have no effect. So if this is what you postulated in your trump betting idea I would have to give u credit
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