Posted: 3/28/2012 10:12:29 AM
Remember, two weeks ago the narrative was Martin was just minding his own business when a gun-wielding vigilante came out of nowhere and gunned him down for the crime of being black and wearing a hoodie.
Well, what have we learned?
A. In October, a school police investigator said he saw Trayvon on the school surveillance camera in an unauthorized area “hiding and being suspicious.”
B. Zimmerman called 9-11 and told police Martin looked suspicious (note in the first two months of 2012, there were eight burglaries, two bike thefts and three simple assaults in the neighborhood. In September, the Sanford police helped the Retreat start a neighborhood watch program.)
C. Two witnesses have said that Martin was on top of Zimmerman beating him.
D. The initial police report noted that Zimmerman was bleeding from the back of the head and nose.
E. Zimmerman stated that he lost sight of Martin and was attacked as he was returning to his vehicle. Based on the complete transcript of the 9-11 call Zimmerman's initial and final locations are near the Retreat at Twin Lakes clubhouse; the location consistent with his verbal directions to his parked car was near the final shooting which supporrts Zimmerman's account.
F. Who is the agressor? Martin's girlfriend had said in a recording obtained exclusively by ABC News that she heard Martin ask Zimmerman "why are your following me, and then the man asked, what are you doing around here." She then heard a scuffle break out.
Based on what is known, there could be a trial with zero witnesses to the outset of the fight between Zimmerman and Martin. Zimmerman can't prove Martin started it, but he doesn't need to, and no one living can say he didn't.
G. There is no serious dispute that Zimmerman had the legal right to an evening stroll in his own neighborhood - the suggestion from the police dispatcher that he not pursue Martin was not some sort of a lawful order he must obey, and in any case, Zimmerman claims to have complied.
H. The law is going to make it tough on prosector's to prove this case:
However, a person is justified in the use of deadly force and does not have a duty to retreat if: He or she reasonably believes that such force is necessary to prevent imminent death or great bodily harm to himself or herself or another or to prevent the imminent commission of a forcible felony.
I. We do not have a toxicology report on either Martin or Zimmerman.
The won't be one on Zimmerman, but the autopsy on Martin could be revealing and in fact could present evidence that Martin was struggling with Zimmerman for the gun (which is what Zimmerman has said).
J. There is a lot of political pressure for an arrest. Unless a new witness comes to light, it is tough to see an appetite for a trial. Charges would be a few weeks away.
Tough call on whether or not Zimmerman will be arrested...